Can History Predict The Future?

I predicted this.

In the last podcast that I did with Richard Spencer before the 2020 election, I predicted that Trump would lose the 2020 election. I also said that the next rightwing backlash movement that would follow MAGA would be a more violent version of the Patriot movement that would dwarf what happened in the 1990s under Bill Clinton. I even said that the grifters would latch on to the next wave in an attempt to remain relevant after Trump. We even speculated about the future of Baked Alaska.

It was clear that this was coming last year. We discussed the polls that showed that Republican support for political violence was rising and had overtaken Democratic support for political violence. I was bullish on violence and said that I expected large scale civil conflict before 2025. We spent much of last summer discussing Peter Turchin’s work on historical cycles and how they resolve themselves.

The Atlantic:

“Peter Turchin, one of the world’s experts on pine beetles and possibly also on human beings, met me reluctantly this summer on the campus of the University of Connecticut at Storrs, where he teaches. Like many people during the pandemic, he preferred to limit his human contact. He also doubted whether human contact would have much value anyway, when his mathematical models could already tell me everything I needed to know. …

The fate of our own society, he says, is not going to be pretty, at least in the near term. “It’s too late,” he told me as we passed Mirror Lake, which UConn’s website describes as a favorite place for students to “read, relax, or ride on the wooden swing.” The problems are deep and structural—not the type that the tedious process of demo­cratic change can fix in time to forestall mayhem. Turchin likens America to a huge ship headed directly for an iceberg: “If you have a discussion among the crew about which way to turn, you will not turn in time, and you hit the iceberg directly.” The past 10 years or so have been discussion. That sickening crunch you now hear—steel twisting, rivets popping—­­is the sound of the ship hitting the iceberg. …

Elite overproduction creates counter-elites, and counter-elites look for allies among the commoners. If commoners’ living standards slip—not relative to the elites, but relative to what they had before—they accept the overtures of the counter-elites and start oiling the axles of their tumbrels. Commoners’ lives grow worse, and the few who try to pull themselves onto the elite lifeboat are pushed back into the water by those already aboard. The final trigger of impending collapse, Turchin says, tends to be state insolvency. At some point rising in­security becomes expensive. The elites have to pacify unhappy citizens with handouts and freebies—and when these run out, they have to police dissent and oppress people. Eventually the state exhausts all short-term solutions, and what was heretofore a coherent civilization disintegrates. …”

Stepping back from the Capitol Siege and looking at the big picture, we can see that political stress and instability in the United States has been steadily growing for years now and has now reached a new high. The Capitol Siege vividly illustrated the degree to which ordinary Republicans have been radicalized. We are marching straight toward the abyss like the Blundering Generation.

About Hunter Wallace 12387 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. It’s a Systemic Whiterage. We have seen this in 1492 in Spain and in places like Bengal when Clive won both the Carnatic War and defeated his foes at Plassey.

    The Portuguese had the same epiphany in Dui when they fought the Ottomans and Gujaratis in a series of sieges and Fleet actions.

    • Yeah—“the old saying.”

      I wonder who said it. I’d bet one of Western Civilization’s staunch defenders here, at Occidental Dissent, could tell us, as soon as he finishes reloading his ammo.

  2. Twitter HQ Facebook HQ etc are probably going to be sacked soon. Can’t see how social media infrastructure is immune after the Capitol was sacked.

    If the summer of 2020 taught normies anything it is that you can Zerg Rush any physical building. That chart showing the frequency of riots and the cycle of wars is very telling.

    • @ can history predict the future? Why yes of course. Proverbs29:2 when the righteous are in authority, thee people rejoice, but when the wicked beareth rule, the.people mourn..

    • I don’t know, Captain. Without prepositioning reinforcements or striving to hold every ingress and by firing but a single (well-placed) shot, ZOG shut down Wednesday’s clamor without having to forgo even a second’s worth of its prime-time broadca$ting, not to mention Jeopardy! and Wheel of Fortune.

      It goes to show how much power Jews amass, as they grow up, simply by paying attention to their studies, while ammo-storers-to-be among schoolyard whites are tormenting their weaker white brethren.

      The genocide proceeds apace.

  3. I believe that the response to the attack of September 11 was what doomed America.

    A sane leadership would have assumed the terrorists were the proxies of a hostile government and focused on our wide open borders, locking them down. After the attack a lot of the illegal Mestizos returned home from the SW for approximately 3 or 4 months, figuring our leadership would exactly that.

    Also, start bringing our factories back, make the visa workers return home, and make passing e-verify necessary for employment, buying/renting a home, and having a national voter’s registration card with photo I’d on it.

    What was the response? Tax cuts. And giving home loans and college loans out like they were candy.

    • America was doomed at many points a long time ago. The most recent ones were in 1965 with the treacherous jewish backed immigration act and Reagan’s amnesty which only encouraged more and more termites to come.

    • They were not the proxies of a hostile government ;it was a bottom up band of disgruntled self professed freedom fighters fed up with the US nation state meddling in their homelands and propping up puppet nation states regimes in their homeland that harmed the natives but benefitted the US[ cold war below market oil, military bases in their holy land for cold war benefits].The big lie is that the Saudi regime was aligned with alquada; no they were enemies. Osama was NOT a religious fundamentalists offended that merkan women aren’t wearing headscarves [ though we’re all covering our faces now[lol].That’s a self serving narrative which conceals out unjust policies.

      The terrorists launched the new millennium; bottom up, of the people not top down nation state, with their stunt !And religion had nothing to do with it; our unjust policies in their homelands did; we were not minding our own business that glorious sept. morn. We vetoed every UN resolution which would have brought a modicum of justice to the Palestinians, supported dictators for cold war benefits; first gulf war, financed the the Iraq and Iran war.[ pro Saddam then] We say we won the cold war without a shot being fired; 9-11 was fallout of our cold wa unjust meddling in their homelands. The people got uppity. We should have treated it like a crime; and NOT gone to 20years war.

    • The fact that they didn’t close the borders after 9-11 just proves that the attacks didn’t originate from outside our borders.

    • Yes, I agree, 911 was the last chance realistically people within the regime could have reversed the globalist ship and Bush Jr. wasn’t up to it. His family was wedded to an anglo version of the post war anti nationalist project and kept up the mass immigration and let the other half our our manufacturing base that was still here January 20, 2001 when he took office, pick up and take off for China. It still would have been a hard project to go against the Jewish media and academic powerhouse vision of a non white majority 21st century America. (Heck, Hollywood Jewish moguls just got Arnold to make a silly video brandishing his Conan sword denouncing the Capitol rioters as “nazis” predictably showing what we suspected all along: Trump Derangement Syndrome was neurotically Jewish in origin seeing absolutely no difference between the Orange Clown and his supporters and the nazis.) I guess since this didn’t happen and Bush Jr. went full steam ahead with the multicultural agenda show it was already too late. The fact they shut down McCarthy’s inquiry into leftist subversion may be the moment they survived the last serious attempt to really shut down the leftist cultural transformation project that pretty much turned Bedford Falls into Pottersville.

      • September 11, 2001 would have been the perfect opportunity for a patriotic president to impose Fortress America. Like I said, a smart leader wouldn’t have allowed a Patriot Act which only monitored Americans. The alleged hijackers were all Saudis and one Kuwaiti who were in the country illegally, This was the best reason ever not to let foreigners in without extensive vetting.

        What did our feckless elite do? They insourced what ever they could not outsource to foreign labor. It shouldn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out how insanely stupid it is not to keep the indigenous heritage Nationals in charge of their most sensitive industries if he still wants a country to run.

        For all the saber rattling they do about China, our leaders made China what it is today all for the short-sighted greed of their donors.

  4. In this case, history is very accurate because of communism or as you say liberalism, is mental disease.

    Like with other diseases, our knowledge about medicine can predict outcome. Americans and Russians are different people but some things are same. Average Russian get hearth attack the very same way like average American.

    With mental diseases is the same . Your liberals behave like our ones. Sooner or later they do something so horrific that this freaks out entire society and gives Donald legitimate reason to pull Insurrection Act.

    Our commies brought tanks to the streets and removed Gorbachev from office. What your commies do, nobody knows yet but your outcome will be very similar what we had back in the 1991.

    Coup, chaos and economic disaster caused by massive USD devaluation. Then local bosses are forced to act on their own initiative. Wise people do not lament in the internet, so we do not know how many States or counties have some kind of independence declaration ready. Like Soviet Republics had.

  5. So how does it all end? Oppressive woke global capitalism aligned hand-in-hand with overtly anti-White governing elites doesn’t leave a lot of options on the table. Add to it the mass pauperization occasioned and accelerated by a pandemic and UBI is the very least the system may introduce to perpetuate itself.

  6. One only needs to look at South Africa to see how this will play out. A lot of people ignore what happened to South Africa and Rhodesia, but genetics isn’t some gamble.

    • White South Africans are currently voting for their equivalent of the GOP, so you see absolutely nothing changes in Whites as they become minorities. They do not radicalize, they do not fight back, they just keep on voting conservative hoping things will get better.

      • Whites simply do not identify as a tribe or unified people. Most of us identify as individuals. It’s an “every man for himself” outlook with us and it is a recipe for extinction.

        • “Whites simply do not identify as a tribe or unified people. Most of us identify as individuals. It’s an every man for himself outlook with us”:

          In capitalism, despite tactical use of “ldentity Politics” to divide and rule, and distract the ruled from developing class consciousness, NO ONE is really supposed to identify as anything more than an individual, selfish, atomized consumer.

      • “White South Africans are currently voting for their equivalent of the GOP”:

        Like the U.S. GOP base, the “GOP” base in S.A. is made up of different White/European ethnic groups, NOT mono-ethnic. Another parallel is that both the U.S. and S.A. are located on land taken from unrelated earlier inhabitants. The real roots of the colonizers are in European countries.

    • I’ve been saying this for years, at least I know I’m not alone in my assessment of the situation. I think South Africa was a “dry run” for the United States. It’s the blueprint.

  7. Those progressives that wear that vulgar tee shirt with I FUCKING LOVE SCIENCE are usually clueless about science and history. They can corrupt human minds but they will never change the instinct of a wood beetle.

    • Usually, their last contact with science was making a volcano out of vinegar and baking soda in fourth grade.

  8. HUNTER,

    The blundering generation were all British Protestants with minor differences, and most people didn’t give a damn about the war, so they had to be coerced into a moral frenzy about slavery being against basic human rights.

    In 2021, this is no blundering generation. People have ZERO in common. The races, religions, news and cultural sources are myriad. Infomania has made people insane and unrelatable, hence the violence. I think the term you are searching for is fifth-generational warfare, were people are mad and lash out, but have no real agenda or goal. This is antifa, BLM, and the capital siege in a nutshell. There is no logic behind the capital siege, they didn’t think it out. They are just a mad rabble.


  9. The market is a huge bubble and protests are at an all time extreme. Yes there are serious problems and we have been pushed into a corner as a nation but, the main problems are manufactured therefore, we don’t really know the machinations of the string pullers especially through what most of our lenses are, hyper reality.

  10. I don’t see things getting more violent. The Capital insurrection LARP was incited by grifters and conmen who will now be punished for letting things get out of control. It was not a serious threat to the system but they will pretend it was in order to beat the last vestiges of genuine patriotism out of White people.

    I predict something equally gay and Jewish will rise from the ashes of the MAGA movement.

    • Part of me agrees with your trenchant commentary. But the January 6th shit-show may encourage other incidents of white civil unrest. A lot of Americans have lost faith in, and patience with, ZOG.

  11. A great book on the cyclic nature of history is: “THE FOURTH TURNING” by Neil Howe and William Strauss. The book was published in 1997 and predicted a massive social and political crisis in a couple of decades.

    Howe and Strauss include and extra cycle, but beyond that, their understanding of of the cyclic nature of history seems to be similar to Turchin, predicting the same break down in our political order.

    Howe and Strauss identify the Great Depression and WW2 as a crisis (Fourth Turning) which was followed by a period of great social conformity in the 1950s (First Turning). Subsequent to that, there has been a continuous liberalization and turn away from tradition, to the point where we are now facing another crisis, another Fourth Turning.

    I strongly recommend the book, although I might quibble with a few details, but I sincerely agree with their analysis. Our elder generation today, the Boomer Generation, have never lived through a major crisis, unlike the GI and Silent Generations. And so we find ourselves in another Fourth Turning.

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