Catalist: What Happened In 2020?

Some of the long awaited voter file studies on the 2020 election which are more accurate than exit polls are finally starting to come out. How did our hot takes measure up?


“In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog — forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. More rigorous analysis simply takes longer.

Now, Catalist, a Democratic data firm, has put out a report on “What Happened in 2020,” authored by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, which makes a serious attempt to answer that question. The report is superior to the exit polls because it’s based in their research for what’s known as a “voter file.” Basically, they’ve put together a large database of turnout information about actual voters, assembled from state or local records about who actually showed up. …

Some of their general findings about what changed since 2016:

Biden’s share of votes by Latinos decreased by 8 percentage points compared to Hillary Clinton’s, and his share of votes by Black people decreased by 3 percentage points.

Biden’s share of white voters without a college degree improved about 1 percentage point as compared to Clinton.

Biden’s share of white voters with a college degree improved by about 4 percentage points from Clinton’s. …

But it’s also worth dwelling on a shift that didn’t happen in 2020 but could have been crucial — it looks like Trump did not continue to gain among white voters without a college degree. According to Catalist’s report, 36 percent of these voters supported Clinton, a 4-point drop from Obama’s performance in 2012. But Democrats did not continue to hemorrhage these voters in 2020 — Biden actually improved slightly, winning 37 percent of them. …

So the fact that Biden avoided Democrats’ recent trend of losing more and more white voters without a college degree was actually quite important in his victory. If he had won, say, 34 percent of them instead of the 37 percent he did win, he very well might not be president right now. …

But the below chart makes the point that non-college whites actually still make up an estimated 32 percent of overall votes cast for Biden. In comparison, Black and Latino voters together also comprised 32 percent of the overall votes for Biden. More than half the Trump coalition, in contrast, is comprised of non-college-educated white voters (and Trump’s coalition is 85 percent white overall). …”

As anyone could see from looking at the election results, Joe Biden performed better with college-educated suburban Whites, significantly worse with Hispanics and marginally worse with blacks and Asians. Trump failed to build on his 2016 margin with the White working class.

85% of Trump voters were White Americans. 58% of Trump voters were White working class voters. 61% of Joe Biden voters were White Americans. 32% of Biden voters were White working class voters. Joe Biden won as many White working class voters as he won black and Hispanic voters combined. And yet, the focus of the corporate media has been exclusively on Joe Biden’s debt to POC voters.


“Based on our analysis to date, the following are our 10 big takeaways for election results for the top-of-the-ticket presidential race. We’ll return to the Senate, House and other down-ballot elections in future reports in this series.

But before we dig in, we want to emphasize that no one has perfect, certain knowledge about the electorate. The fact that someone has voted is a matter of public record, but how we vote is private. Therefore, these data points are all estimates, based at least partly on survey data and statistical modeling. In our own work, we compare our results to other data sources, and we encourage readers to do the same. …”

The Jared Kushner strategy was to 1.) take the White working class vote for granted and 2.) focus intensely on winning the black vote. Trump netted 3% more of the black vote which was made up for by elevated black turnout. “Defund the Police” was the reason why Trump won more minorities.

Donald Trump lost the 2020 election because of White Indies and White moderates. He lost both kinds of moderates. He lost the Never Trumpers or the Liz Cheney types in the wealthy suburbs who always hated him. He lost college-educated White suburban voters because of how he handled COVID. Finally, he lost people like us who were exhausted with his act. That’s who didn’t show up.

If it hadn’t been for Jared Kushner, I think Trump could have still squeaked out of victory. He had no strategy for expanding his share of the White working class vote. If he had only marginally improved his performance with White Indies in the swing states, he would be the president today.

Saager Enjeti makes an excellent point which is that affluent, college-educated White progressives who have modernist, cosmopolitan and antiracist values and who despise the White working class – the Democratic Independent Liberal Elites (DILEs) or woke progressives – are the people who run the Democratic Party even though White working class voters outnumber them in Joe Biden’s coalition. Even a modest shift on economic policy or especially health care combined with a stronger stance on “far right” culture issues would be sufficient to turn the Democrats into New Labour.

About Hunter Wallace 12387 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. The 2020 Nov 3 was stolen by the Democrats in 1965

    When the spirit and ghost of

    JFK….signed the 1965 Immigration Reform Act into law


    JFKs “gift” to Native Born White American Racial Majority back in 1965

    The endgame was the nullification of the Native White Vote on Nov 3 2021


    Nullification of the White Working Class Vote on Nov 3 2020…

  2. Trump lost the election due to voter fraud. Explain the middle of the night vote dumps if you believe otherwise?

    • Oh no the Jewish controlled Democrats STOLE the election from the Jewish controlled Republicans! Whatever will we do Mr. KT-88? We must do something to restore our legitimately elected Zionist Republican government headed by Zion Don.

      I guess Republicans are just natural born losers if they allow elections to be stolen from them.

  3. “What Happened In 2020?”

    If Smalltown and Rural and Southerners are any gauge, then it is not possible to believe those pollsters, who report that President Trump was less popular with Whites.

    Nope, whether it is just your Average Redneck, Klansman, Baptist Church Choirs, Orchid Society Members, Historick Preservation Societies, League of The South & SCV members, Ruritan & Hunting Clubs, well over 9 out of every 10 White Southerners I have heard speak on the subject think President Trump is the greatest president in at least century.

    As to Rural Southern Blacks, I’ve yet to meet a one who likes him.

    Not my view, any of this, but, those of others.

    One thing I am sure DID happen in 2020,m and that was lying voting machines.

    Just look at the Michigan Primaries, and the Michigan State government effort to cover it all up, or the latest revelations from Maricopa County, Arizona.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – President Biden is only so by a massive conspiratorial fraud, not to mention all the CIA Colour Revolution stuff of the previous year – from the endless riots to the Chinese bio-weapon attack.

    Nope, America was attackt in 2020, on a level far more than in 1941.

    The difference is that The Media does not report it as such, and the politicians, by and large, are no longer loyal.

    To me, and to Northeastern North Carolina & Southeastern Virginia, all this is ‘what happened in 2020’…

    • “One thing I am sure DID happen in 2020,m and that was lying voting machines.”

      I hope you donated to ‘stop the steal’. That’s money well spent and no mistake! No sir nothing untoward there!

      • @Ricky…

        I did not donate money to that, Dear Ricky – simply because I long ago grew tired of The GOP milking the wife and me for funds that never producet nationalist results.

        Hope things are well with you!

  4. Good riddance, I’m glad Zion Don is no longer “president”. And I’m also glad that the social media monopoly shut his ass up. He should have been arrested and indicted for his role in the January 6th catastrophe at the Capitol.

  5. The scale of damage caused by the passage of the 1965 Immigration Reform Act:

    Nonwhite Legal Immigrants+Their nonwhite US born geneline…….a massive nonwhite Democratic Party Voting Bloc…..and an massive amount of nonwhite scab labour…..

    JFK was an enthusiast for the Kenyan Student Airlift….JFK was the first US Politician to hold a meeting about the Kenyan Student Airlift in his US Senate Office…..And this is how Barack Obama sr. came to America LEGALLY…

  6. Trump is a petty, vindictive, vainglorious idiot whose head is easily turned by flattery. Thus he turns on those who could have helped him be the most successful president in history and listens to those who do nothing but undermine him.

    Can’t stand Liz Cheney but, as Ann Coulter said, Cheney loathed Trump but voted with him 90 percent of the time. Her Trump-supported replacement, Elise Stefanik never publicly disagreed with Trump, even flattered him, but rarely to never voted for his programs.

    And why is it so damned important to replace Cheney with an even worse woman? If a woman can’t be found,why not a man who is on board with the MAGA program?

    There was his stupid grudge match with Obama. Especially when it was clear that the Republicans had no plans to replace anything just oppose it. Scuttling Obamacare was what cost several Republican House seats and tied his administration up in impeachment these past four years. Why not focus on creating as many jobs with good health insurance as possible so fewer needed to access it? Why not create an additional payroll tax which would enable separated employees to continue their benefits rather than go incur the ridiculous expense of trying to COBRA them?

    Why oppose Mo Brooks for Alabama Senator even though he was on board for MAGA, because Brooks said mean things about him? That seat got taken by a Democrat. Then he opposes Jeff Sessions because he recused himself after Trump laid the case for his own impeachment investigation by admitting he fired James Comey to get rid of the Russia thing. This after keeping Comey on, even though Sessions and Miller urged him to fire Comey the moment he took office.

    I personally think he punished affluent blue state White suburbanites by removing their state and local property tax deductions, because they refused to support him publicly and even made jokes about him, BUT why should that matter if they would pull the lever for him in the privacy of the voting booth (which they did in 2016). Well, HE showed THEM and he lost 2020 to make his point.

    Then he takes Jared Kushner’s advice to ignore the larger White working class to virtue-signal and bribe/pander to potential Black voters. Why not simply stay focused on the goal of 100 percent American employment (which would have swept him back into office by a landslide) because people always vote their pocket books.

    I can’t think of a single American of any stripe who was that enthused with the Criminal Justice Reform (Whoredashion Early Prison Release program) that his administration stupidly got on board with. None of these released felons was going to be paroled to Trump Towers or the Hamptons or Beverly Hills but to the very neighborhoods of those who voted for him in 2016.

    I pray to All That’s Holy that he doesn’t run again. Allow this man to maintain the illusion that he’s the Republican Kingmaker and let’s put in an American Firster without Grima Wormtongue, I mean, that creepy son-in-law of his as an advisor.

    • “I personally think he punished affluent blue state White suburbanites by removing their state and local property tax deductions…”

      Correct. Most UMC white suburban voters are GOP. Hunter confuses them with urbanite hipsters with low paying service jobs and less affluent social worker/HR women’s job types who went to college but are not UMC.

      The most left wing people are those who are educated but not affluent.

  7. Trump lost 3 non-college White male votes in this household + mine. Can you imagine if any of us had voted for Biden?

    If republicans keep up the garbage including promoting that adulteress Marjorie Taylor Greene at public events democrats may get 2 votes in this household in 2022. They are lying about being the “working man’s party”. None of them voted for the stimulus bills. Not one of them, including Gaetz or any of the other grifters they have leading the party.

    None of them will support anything except a tax cut for their swamp donors and Israel, as per usual. The replacement for Cheney couldn’t wait to tweet her undying support, and Trump took a break from golf to pledge his absolute loyalty to Israel yesterday too. I mean, there’s Trump Heights and all.

  8. What’s missing is they got a LOT MORE black and other democratic constituents to vote by mailing out all these ballots and then “community organizers” going door to door in the hood to make sure they sent them in for Biden.

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