This was not my preferred course of action, but one highly effective response to the GOP threat to steal elections that Democrats have hit on is becoming unpopular so they'll likely lose fair and square.— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 3, 2021
General Michael Hayden is worried about balkanization.
“OPINION — I was a Brigadier General 30 years ago, assigned in Europe as the head of intelligence. Most of the time I was looking at the Balkans because there was a war going on. Yugoslavia lasted for 72 years and then it was gone; it fell apart.
These were bitter rivalries. Many people were killed. There were multiple civil wars. It lasted 10 years; it’s hard to say, but we think 130,000 to 140,000 actually died. The hardest hit was Bosnia where maybe 100,000 people died, mostly Bosniaks (Muslims). Sarajevo in Bosnia had hosted the Olympics just a few years before.
I went to Sarajevo many times. It was a modern city. It was small and picturesque, on the banks of the Miljacka river.
The First World War began in Sarajevo. And in the 1990s, war returned. Sarajevo was a war zone. And I was in Bosnia, watching it happen. What was going on? Why were they doing this? …”
I’m actually less concerned about this.
The United States isn’t going to disintegrate along regional lines like this for the simple reason that Joe Biden is down to 30% support with White voters. He is losing over 2/3rds of White voters now which is politically catastrophic. He is also losing support among “Latinx” voters.
The country ISN’T balkanizing.
This is just people like General Michael Hayden losing the country. Voters are so spooked by gas prices and inflation that political gridlock is breaking down.
Joe Biden won the 2020 election with 43% of White voters. He has dropped from 43% to 30% over the course of the past year. “Latinx” for Biden has gone from 59% to 51%.
If this is true, then it is a safe bet that Ohio and Iowa are gone. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are gone. New Hampshire and Minnesota are almost certainly gone. Illinois and Colorado are swing states. Joe Biden is fighting to stay above water in states like New Jersey and Virginia.
Maybe the country doesn’t balkanize because one side just becomes toxic and collapses into a regional party and it is the Democrats? That’s what we are seeing in these polls.