Ruy Teixeira injected the meme of demographic triumphalism back into the progressive hive mind in the early 2000s. Teixeria is now running away from his prophecy as fast as he can.
Ronald Brownstein, one of the Democratic Party’s top Jews, is still unable to see the massive holes in it. It turns out changing racial demographics are not empowering progressive activists.
“The Supreme Court has set itself on a collision course with the forces of change in an inexorably diversifying America.
The six Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been nominated and confirmed by GOP presidents and senators representing the voters least exposed, and often most hostile, to the demographic and cultural changes remaking 21st-century American life. Now the GOP Court majority is moving at an accelerating pace to impose that coalition’s preferences on issues such as abortion, voting rights, and affirmative action.
On all of these fronts, and others, the Republican justices are siding with what America has been—a mostly white, Christian, and heavily rural nation—over the urbanized, racially and religiously diverse country America is becoming.
“The Court seems to be pulling the United States back into a prior era without regard for changing notions and understandings of equity, equality, and fairness,” Sarah Warbelow, the legal director for the Human Rights Campaign, which advocates for LGBTQ rights, told me. “It is about almost trying to maintain a 1940s, 1950s view of what the United States is and what its obligations are to its citizens.” …
Now a wide array of groups rooted in the changing America—particularly organizations that advocate for greater equity on grounds of race, gender, and sexual orientation—are openly wondering what boundaries, if any, will constrain the GOP majority. …”
Here’s another way of looking at a changing America:
Progressive activists were 6% of adults in 2021. Populist Right were 11% of adults in 2021. Establishment liberals and Populist Right make up about 23% of the Republican and Democratic base respectively.
Liberals have gone from 25% to 51% of the Democratic coalition.
In the wider electorate, 36% of Americans were conservative in 1992 and 37% of Americans were conservatives in 2021.
So, it is true that the country is becoming more racially diverse, but it hardly follows that it is becoming more progressive. The country has stayed largely the same in terms of values and ideology. It is the Democratic Party that has become much more progressive than it used to be because it has become a magnet for social liberals. This is the flip side of the trend in the Republican Party which has become a magnet for social conservatives. There are more conservatives than liberals in America. Polarizing the country along the axis of social liberalism translates into a GOP advantage.
California, once thought to be the flagship of The Emerging Democratic Majority, recently voted down affirmative action.
The truth is that the Democratic coalition is composed of a variety of groups which do not share the same values and ideology and interests.
There is the woke professional class which lives on the coasts, which dominates the party and its brand and messaging and which is far more socially liberal and progressive than its working class base. There is a significant number of White working class voters who voted for Joe Biden who now regret doing so. There are the blacks which are divided by age and ideology. There is the “AAPI community.” There are the “Latinx” voters which resemble White working class voters in their issue preferences.
Underneath the hood of the Democratic Party, the thing that drives the coalition and which utterly dominates the country whenever it is in power is the toxic relationship between super woke White liberals and narcissistic black professionals and activists. The most recent example of this was Joe Biden railing about Bull Connor and George Wallace and how Georgia in 2022 is “Jim Crow 2.0.” Far from being rewarded for using this kind of rhetoric to try to mobilize his coalition, Biden tanked in the polls in Georgia. The embrace of Ibram X. Kendism has trashed the Democratic brand.
The latest CNN poll shows the disastrous state of the Democratic coalition in “an inexorably diversifying America.”
Among other things, we noticed that Joe Biden has gone from winning a majority of Independents to only being supported by a third of them. He is splitting “Latinx” voters. He is losing a third of blacks. He is down from winning over 40% of Whites to below Hillary Clinton levels of support with White working class voters. He is losing women. The rural vote against him is off the charts.
If the Democrats were so inevitable because of changing demographics, wouldn’t they have won more elections? Wouldn’t they have been changing the composition of the court to suit their ideological tastes rather than the reverse happening? How is it that the Democratic Party is poised to be reduced to its lowest level of support at all levels of government since the 1920s?
Moving forward, the most likely scenario is that Democrats are about to lose the Senate again in the midterms. The Democrats will be competing on far less favorable terrain in 2024. It is also hard to see how Joe Biden even runs for reelection in 2024 given his age and poll numbers. The reality is that even further losses are likely about to befall Democrats in the federal courts. There are also other mega trends going on like the shriveling reach of the “mainstream media” which is rapidly retreating to the coasts. It is hard to pretend that you are somehow inevitable when the country is literally tuning you out.