Poll Watch: The Blue Mirage Is Fading

The red wave is back.

Women can’t make up their damn minds. Are they angry about abortion or the economy?

New York Times:

“Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.

The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.) …

The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion. …

Both Democrats and Republicans have largely coalesced behind their own party’s congressional candidates. But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights. …

But the poll showed that Republicans had entirely erased what had been an 11-point edge for Democrats among women last month in 2022 congressional races to a statistical tie in October. …”

There has been a shift away from Democracy in October as likely voter screens are added in polls.

New York Times:

“We have the result of our third New York Times/Siena College national survey of the midterm cycle to go with your coffee this morning: 49 percent of voters say they back the Republican congressional candidate in their district, compared with 45 percent backing the Democratic one.

It’s a modest but notable swing from last month, when Democrats led by one percentage point among likely voters. Since then, the warning signs for Democrats have begun to add up, including Republican polling gains in key Senate races like those in Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and surprising Republican strength in districts in Rhode Island and Oregon where Democrats would normally be safe.

Up to this point, Democrats have maintained a narrow lead in polls asking whether voters prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress, but there have been warning signs for the party here as well. Republicans have led in several high-quality polls, like ABC/Washington PostCBS/YouGov and Monmouth University. Today, the Times/Siena survey adds a fourth such poll to the pile.

The evidence for a shift toward Republicans appears to be underpinned by a change in the national political environment. …”


“The results are consistent with other recent polls that show Republicans gaining ground as election day approaches, including a CNN/SSRS poll released last week that found 48% of voters in swing districts tilt to the right, compared to 43% who said they’d vote for Democrats. …”

The Dobbs effect is exaggerated.

In the latest New York Times poll, women are splitting 47/47. Just 5% of voters consider abortion the most important issue facing the country compared to 100% of “journalists.”

Republicans led on the congressional generic ballot through July over a month after Dobbs. It was a combination of Dobbs, the dramatic decline in gas prices at the end of the summer and a few legislative wins that firmed up Biden’s support among Democrats who had soured on him in polls. In the end, Democrats were always going to vote for their party, but the Independents who decide elections are swinging Republican like they normally do in midterms to punish the party in power.

Note: Bernie has been making the rounds on cable news warning Democrats that their obsession with abortion was going to backfire. Abortion is a top issue for AWFL voters. Most people don’t vote on the basis of luxury issues like abortion or “trans” rights or “the state of democracy.”


  1. If you’re working or lower middleclass, Bernie makes some good points on the economy, trouble is dems have been so terrible on everything else, from the covid response to defund the police and the antifa/blm riots, from ww3 with Russia to carbon taxes, restrictions, soaring gas prices and inflation.
    And who’s going to pay for all these programs to help struggling families?
    The top 1%?
    Unlikely, it’ll either be the working and middleclass or they’ll borrow the money once again inflating prices.
    Look what they’ve done with the west Coast, it’s become a shithole, that’s how they’d run the country.
    The truth is at this point neither party cares all that much about struggling families if at all, but at least national populists won’t drag us deeper into inflation, and Armageddon, just to maintain globalist hegemony, dems, and neocons will.

  2. “Most people don’t vote on the basis of luxury issues like abortion or “trans” rights or “the state of democracy.””

    Women of child bearing age only make up a fraction of the electorate and are the only one who really care about being pro-abortion.

    And with the Dobbs decision they can still travel to Blue States if they really really want an abortion.

    The dang Fake News are the ones trying to find up the issue and based on the recent polling have failed miserably.

  3. If Republicans only have a narrow lead, it is a clear sign that many people realize that the Republicans, principally on the national level, are a bad party that does not really care for their welfare.

    It also means that tens of millions of people seem not to realize that, though the Republicans are bad on the national level, they are not nearly so bad as the current Democrats.

    For the life of me, I cannot see how you can watch the Biden administration, and the crop of current elected Democrat officials and candidates, do what they do and have done, and yet support them?

    Is their something else they, The Democrats, can set fire to that they have not already?

  4. The rest of the United States would be better off without the sixteen Yankee States. In every possible way, from socio-politics, to economics, to foreign relations.


    End Reconstruction. End the War.


  5. I believe Senator Sanders to be the only long incumbent senator who is not corrupt and who genuinely cares about the people of this country.

    Moreover, before 2020, Senator Sanders had long stood for closed borders, trade protectionism, medicare for all, and truly regulated pharmaceutical and insurance industries etc, etc…

    As a Dixiecrat I support, and always have supported, those things.

    The problem is that Senator Sanders does not have the balls to stand up even to those who lead his party, much less to the globalist oligarchs.

    They cheat the good senator in the primaries of 2016 & 2020 and

    Yet, even IF Senator Sanders knew how to be uncompromising, the fact remains that he has very little real support on Capital Hill.

    And that begs the question? : why does he talk as if his agenda is anything plausible?

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