The red wave is back.
Women can’t make up their damn minds. Are they angry about abortion or the economy?
“Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.
The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.) …
The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion. …
Both Democrats and Republicans have largely coalesced behind their own party’s congressional candidates. But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.
The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights. …
But the poll showed that Republicans had entirely erased what had been an 11-point edge for Democrats among women last month in 2022 congressional races to a statistical tie in October. …”
There has been a shift away from Democracy in October as likely voter screens are added in polls.
“We have the result of our third New York Times/Siena College national survey of the midterm cycle to go with your coffee this morning: 49 percent of voters say they back the Republican congressional candidate in their district, compared with 45 percent backing the Democratic one.
It’s a modest but notable swing from last month, when Democrats led by one percentage point among likely voters. Since then, the warning signs for Democrats have begun to add up, including Republican polling gains in key Senate races like those in Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and surprising Republican strength in districts in Rhode Island and Oregon where Democrats would normally be safe.
Up to this point, Democrats have maintained a narrow lead in polls asking whether voters prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress, but there have been warning signs for the party here as well. Republicans have led in several high-quality polls, like ABC/Washington Post, CBS/YouGov and Monmouth University. Today, the Times/Siena survey adds a fourth such poll to the pile.
The evidence for a shift toward Republicans appears to be underpinned by a change in the national political environment. …”
“The results are consistent with other recent polls that show Republicans gaining ground as election day approaches, including a CNN/SSRS poll released last week that found 48% of voters in swing districts tilt to the right, compared to 43% who said they’d vote for Democrats. …”
The Dobbs effect is exaggerated.
In the latest New York Times poll, women are splitting 47/47. Just 5% of voters consider abortion the most important issue facing the country compared to 100% of “journalists.”
Republicans led on the congressional generic ballot through July over a month after Dobbs. It was a combination of Dobbs, the dramatic decline in gas prices at the end of the summer and a few legislative wins that firmed up Biden’s support among Democrats who had soured on him in polls. In the end, Democrats were always going to vote for their party, but the Independents who decide elections are swinging Republican like they normally do in midterms to punish the party in power.
Note: Bernie has been making the rounds on cable news warning Democrats that their obsession with abortion was going to backfire. Abortion is a top issue for AWFL voters. Most people don’t vote on the basis of luxury issues like abortion or “trans” rights or “the state of democracy.”