Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* with a minority of the vote.— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) April 4, 2022
If you want to help stop that, come check out our job board! https://t.co/2xKqs6nT3e pic.twitter.com/cK1ojkyYII
Not hyperbole. A vote for a Republican is a vote to end Democracy.— Rob Reiner (@robreiner) November 3, 2022
Y'all are gonna miss American democracy when it's gone. Wasn't perfect and definitely flawed, but the new hot thing, fascism, is going to make you wish for the good ol years. America always learns the hard way.— Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) November 6, 2022
Vote like your democracy depends on it.— Dan Rather (@DanRather) November 5, 2022
Joe Biden celebrates coal plant workers losing their jobs.— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 4, 2022
“We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America.” pic.twitter.com/0DZk0MZHa8
WATCH: Biden repeatedly promised to ELIMINATE oil, natural gas, and coal.pic.twitter.com/e1usgfctus— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 5, 2022
BREAKING NEWS: Manchin demands Biden apologize for 'outrageous' coal comments: 'Time he learn a lesson' https://t.co/VBY15eLBnv— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 5, 2022
My statement on comments President Biden made about shutting down coal plants: pic.twitter.com/LEeqrGdwqm— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 5, 2022
Scenario after Biden’s coal comments and Manchin’s furious rebuttal:— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 5, 2022
1) No walk back from WH;
2) Rs gain 3-4 in Senate on Tuesday;
3) Manchin switches to GOP within a week.
Far-fetched? Recall that outgoing Senator Richard Shelby of AL switched to Rs after the 1994 GOP sweep:
By switching to R, Manchin would guarantee easy re-election in 2024 and might be able to negotiate remaining chairman of Senate Energy Committee. If he remains Dem, he has tough election in 2024 and faces prospect of being in minority for rest of Senate career. https://t.co/G6sV9ddmzC— Ed Whelan (@EdWhelanEPPC) November 5, 2022
The 2024 election cycle will soon be upon us
The Democratic civil war and blame game is also coming. It won’t be long until the finger pointing begins at Joe Manchin for costing Democrats the midterms.
Rural turnout and margins will likely prove catastrophic for Democrats.
Joe Manchin will soon have to decide if he wants to run for reelection in West Virginia in 2024 when he will likely be on the same ballot as Trump while being the Democratic scapegoat.
Perhaps Manchin realizes he has no future in the Democratic Party and switches parties? Perhaps the GOP sweeps the Senate races on Tuesday? Pickups in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Washington, New Hampshire and Colorado results in a 56 seat Senate majority. Manchin switching parties gets to 57.
60 Senate seats is the number it takes to break a Democratic filibuster.