Light red means Republican ripple. Dark red is Republican wave. Light blue is Democratic ripple, dark blue is Democratic wave. pic.twitter.com/MvUMYS0FtT— Ryan Brune (@BruneElections) November 14, 2022
This is holding up.
Republicans are still winning the popular vote by 4.5 points.
“Something odd happened on Election Day. In the morning, we were confident of my victory in Ohio and cautiously optimistic about the rest of the country. By the time the polls closed, that optimism had turned to jubilance—and lobbying. …
There is a related structural problem, which is that higher propensity voters (suburban whites, especially) are just more and more Democratic. Meanwhile, a lot of the Trump base just doesn’t turn out in midterm elections. Again, this is not unique to Trump: these voters have always had substandard turnout numbers. But 20 years ago, when most of them voted for Democrats, that meant Republicans had a structural advantage in midterms. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. This problem is exacerbated by Democrats’ strong advantages in states that have expanded vote by mail. …”
There was a Red Wave in the South, New York and California.
In the Midwest though, Trump voters didn’t show up for the midterms. Democrats got clobbered in New York while Republicans got clobbered in Pennsylvania. There was a Blue Wave in Colorado and New England. The outcome of the election varied by state and region.