Ep. 5 As in most of the developing world, it's safer to be the president's son than his opponent. pic.twitter.com/AtRRaxYSjs
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 20, 2023
I’m bored with Donald Trump.
I’m bored with Joe Biden and Hunter Biden.
As a middle aged radical, I am in a hurry to get to the end of the inevitable crisis. At the same time, I understand and recognize that the vast majority of people on the Right are not as radicalized as I am. Those who are radicalized also haven’t been as radicalized for as long as I have.
So, I look at this … Trump’s various arrests, the Deep State attempts to take out Trump before the 2024 election, the sweetheart deal between the DOJ and Hunter Biden that was announced yesterday, and I conclude that it is just part of the process that we have to go through to destroy the legitimacy of the system in the eyes of a critical mass of people who are just now waking up to these issues.
Objectively, we are now in a time when events are moving rapidly. Subjectively, it feels like just more of the same old boring slog through. The wheels haven’t totally come off yet.
Peter Turchin is back with a new book on the Turbulent Twenties.
“How has America slid into its current age of discord? Why has our trust in institutions collapsed, and why have our democratic norms unraveled?
All human societies experience recurrent waves of political crisis, such as the one we face today. My research team built a database of hundreds of societies across 10,000 years to try to find out what causes them. We examined dozens of variables, including population numbers, measures of well-being, forms of governance, and the frequency with which rulers are overthrown. We found that the precise mix of events that leads to crisis varies, but two drivers of instability loom large. The first is popular immiseration—when the economic fortunes of broad swaths of a population decline. The second, and more significant, is elite overproduction—when a society produces too many superrich and ultra-educated people, and not enough elite positions to satisfy their ambitions. …“
“WL: How likely is that though?
PT: Who knows? That is actually a scientific statement. We know that the road to crisis is fairly channelised. It’s like a narrow valley. But then you get to the crisis itself and all kinds of roads are possible. So I would certainly not put a probability of zero to a social revolution happening in the United States. Maybe it’s not 50 per cent. Maybe it’s somewhere in between. These things always come unexpected.
WL: OK, so we have a non-negligible chance in the next ten years of serious violence in the United States?
PT: Yes, but maybe the elites will come together and put us on the right track. And there are other possibilities, and the most likely is the country separating along red and blue lines.
WL: A formal divorce settlement?
PT: Yeah, I think that’s a realistic scenario, where there will be two countries or even three countries; the West Coast and East Coast separate from the middle.
WL: Is that something that’s talked about in the United States as a real possibility?
PT: Quite a lot – it’s a real possibility. So after [Donald Trump’s election in] 2016 it was mostly in the liberal states that [people talked about] leaving and joining Canada. And after 2020 it was mostly in the red states – there is a movement in Texas to secede, and there is a similar movement on the West Coast in California. …”
It was still unthinkable about four years ago.
We’re now at the stage though where confidence in the system is collapsing and both sides see each other as mortal enemies in an existential conflict like the South around 1859.
A lesson that radicals need to take to heart, is that the self interest, the best interest of any population is in stability. Were it not the case, civilization would never have developed beyond subsistence methods, of mere tribal scales.
My consistent issue with accelerationism has always been for this reason. People get hurt when radicals get their way. Whatever flavor they are.
If we are to accept that we are radicals, seeing things from a perspective that is by definition not the norm, let us do it with the humility and compassion that radicals like the Marxists of the 20th century never did.
Humility, knowing the burden we shoulder to shine light on things others perhaps don’t want to see. Compassion for our own, who will suffer the consequences of the tumult that results from revolutionary periods.
Virtually everyone who survived the marxist revolutions of the 20th century, learned to hate them for what they destroyed. Even Liberalism has so far recoiled from the viscious and destructively mailicious tendencies of that era.
I’m not a praying man, God doesn’t speak to me. But I hope whatever agency has its fingers on the scales of this world see’s it fit to let people with different interests go their separate ways, in relative peace.
I’m honestly at the point in my life where I have a vested interest in stability. I have another kid on the way in the fall.
It is like Turchin says though. There is a train barreling down the tracks. It is inevitably going to crash into us. I don’t even care about Trump, but imagine how sideways our politics could go if he is actually convicted and sent to prison or prevented from running as the Republican nominee
Nothing “has its fingers on the scales of this world”. The Universe is Infinite Chaos. It does not care one way or another about anyone living in peace. You win or you lose, you survive or you die.
Hunter, a blog related question: does your blog have a commenter’s comments function-that is, a link where a commenter such as myself can pull up all my previous comments on OD?
The reason I ask is two-fold: in order to properly discuss Turchin’s “End Times” book, it would help to see where I have said essentially the same thing he does, in terms of how and why all human societies proceed along their life cycles, here at OD.
Second, I have wanted to provide my children with J. R. Chloupek’s Rules for Effective Living, which I can distill from certain comments made here over the four years I have invaded your online space. I’m too lazy to go back from 2019 to today to locate the missives posted herein.
Finally, if no such function exits now at OD, can this be made a part of the website without the expenditure of time or money best devoted to the Griffin family? If not, I understand. Anyway, we are all bored with the nonsense from the Empire of Evil, but it is still fun to game out the possibilities. Interesting times indeed.
There might be a plugin for that.
In the meantime, you can search for Peter Turchin to see all the articles where he has been brought up in the past. Your old comments are likely under those posts.
Many years ago Google was a great search engine. You could enter this
“J. R. Chloupek” site:https://occidentaldissent.com
or
“J. R. Chloupek” site:occidentaldissent.com
can’t remeber which as it’s so goofy now.
and it would find all your post. Maybe it will work for you. Me, it does not work anymore. They’ve screwed it up somehow. Al search engines now are far trashier than they used to be. Many are mostly useless. Diversity? Or it may be deleberate.
Hello Sam, sorry for the late reply. I have typed my name, occidental dissent, and/or other additional search words I recall using repeatedly in my comments. I have retrieved many comments, but not all of them.
Not sure what Hunter means by “plugins” in terms of a commenter locating his comment history en mass. A Google search implies they are add ons for a WordPress Blogger to use themselves, not the commenters. I guess I’m not competent to check safety on that sunken submarine.
Klaus is prepping us for rule by unelected bureaucrats in faraway places.
Failed Nation status will also bring the blue helmets out.
The crisis of competency and Clown Car leaders are not by accident.
” . . . We examined dozens of variables . . . two drivers of instability loom large . . .popular immiseration . . . (and) elite overproduction”
No doubt true and good points, too.
Two interesting questions that must not be asked are:
1.) How has the population of The Usual Suspects increased before or at the beginning of an age of turmoil?
2.) How much has the representation of The Usual Suspects amongst the overproduced elite i.e. the ruling class increased before or at the beginning of an age of turmoil?
Inquiring minds want to know.
So us “preppers” were right after all? Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.
Best get busy. Lots (years) of catching up to do.
Welcome. Better late than never.
lol
https://twitter.com/MogTheUrbanite/status/1672025953244188673
“You know, 80 years or so from now, they’ll be sending 9.5/10 FBI agents out to marry the Barbarian warlords in the middle of the country, like the Chinese Emperors sending their daughters to marry Mongol Lords”
there will be nothing positive after trump. it was a special time of free speech on social media, internet searches, pre-AI comment manipulation–and with this one key–social media is designed to be addictive and give dopamine hits for use. In effect, inadvertantly, the social media companies addicted people to political participation.
also, what happened to factoring the JQ here?
UNPOPULAR OPINION:
Hunter Biden’s deal is normal. Him being charged at all was not.
There’s always been a two tier justice system in America.
Trump (contards, and other elite civic nationalists) not being treated as such was the break from the norms.
One could point out where conservatives were treated a little bit worse in the past than other elite liberals for similar crimes (and definitely anyone on the “right” who was outside of the club).
Historically American elites always covered for each other.
I can’t remember if Hunter was charged for this but I remember reading in the msm their was an incident where he returned a rental car and he left a bag of crack (fairly large bag), his crack pipe AND HIS DL! I can’t remember if he was charged but their was at the very least a police report written about it. In yesteryear’s there would’ve been no report. They would’ve seen his DL and his other ID and just threw it way and act like they didn’t see anything.
George W Bush was caught with blow on many occasions (no charges) and if you think he hasn’t or wouldn’t smoke crack you’re fooling yourself. Transgressive elites get off on breaking taboo’s as much as the high itself.
America is in a legitimacy crisis which is partially why they’re doing even fake plea deal prosecutions.
As much as it’s a normie meme the internet and fast spreading of information, as well as the personal clout that can be gained by having and spreading privileged information has radically changed how elites have to smooth over scandals. In the past it was simply much easier to suppress scandals and never give them oxygen.
One twist on this normie meme is that the cynicism that the elites actually we’re responsible for spreading has also made it much harder for them to handwave and virtue signal scandals away. Yes this is largely done by Jews but was also done by the Anglo’s, who are both fearful of German Americans, and other non-elite WASP’s. They’ll dress it up with some concern over liberal freedoms and Germans (as well as other ethnic whites) as not sharing “liberal values” or whatever. But they want to be able to hyper exploit and not let anyone else into their ranks.
They’re partially correct about Germans rejecting “liberal values” not so much in being fair, evidence based or free speech but rather Germans are very community oriented. Even when shitlib’d or evangelicalized.
Germans while strong on punishing bad behavior, it is a tough love. While Anglo’s & Jew’s have a hustler mentality- “if you’re dumb enough to fall for my lies/trap then you deserve what you get.”
It’s why the south despite being very Christian allows for more vice eg casino’s, brothels fronting as massage parlors, sex shops, loose liquor laws/drive through liquor stores etc… German parts of the country tried much harder to stomp that out and the uncharitable way of looking at was “you guys are no fun!” I’m not going to say there’s zero truth to that but what Germans understand is that vice is supply driven. If you add in a 10,000 hot prostitutes into a city- EVEN IF THE PEOPLE HAVE “GOD FEARING” MORAL VIRTUE. Men will eventually give into their more base desires and participate, even if in a limited capacity. So we’d just block it out.
I always found the “mud-shark” got what she deserved line from old WN’s as very distasteful. I wouldn’t date a girl that was with a black guy (I’m sure I could think of some ultra exceptions but that’s not realistic). But the idea of taken glee a white woman was hurt by doing what she was was encouraged to doesn’t sit well with me.
Even before the times of when race mixing wasnt explicitly promoted, even having other races around is a form of promotion. Although way less sympathy for girls who race mixed generations ago when they we’re probably taught the correct thing.
The KKK in Indiana was largely responsible for bringing blacks into the state. Indiana being a half Germanic, part Scott’s-Irish and part Anglo burned Germanic farmers crops who were against slavery bcus they didn’t want blacks around. And produce enough crops themselves and didn’t value the Anglo Richard Spencer Aristocratic leisure lifestyle. Simply thought sitting on your ass while others did the work was undignified and didn’t want blacks around, even as slaves or as an underclass. The Klan history in Indiana was mostly fighting whites and burning German farmers crops. In the immediacy after the civil war bringing freed blacks into Indiana, where Germans largely saw blacks as the problem of southerners. You wanted em, you should deal with them.
Anglos hate communities that aren’t open to exploitation and see allowing vice as “eugenic.” With the theory that if “you’re dumb enough to fall for it- YOU DESERVE WHAT YOU GET!”
Which in modern times has people like spencer promoting transgenderism.
It’s a morality masking a deep seeded insecurity. Anglo’s like Jews (although to a lesser extent) were a “head without a body.”
England and British aisle obviously had more of a full society eg upper, middle and lower class. But compared to France or Germany they’re tiny and don’t have the deep bench a France or Germany has.
Englands royal family is Germanic, and obviously the Saxon in Anglo Saxon comes from Saxon Germany. The Anglo saxons used to play up their German’ness as a way of being elitist over English klan’s/ethnicities but as soon as they got power.
The royal family dropped their German name and took the name “Windsor.” The English royal family have been only calling themselves “windsors” for like a 100 years, they changed it around the turn of the last century (1900) when they felt they had enough clout they didn’t need to ally with Germany any more.
Much like Richard Spencer, the British elites are total brats- aware they could easily be replaced.
They wanted to crush middle American values which is just code word for German Americans. The south has a lot of disenfranchised anglos who are middle American but really middle American is code word for German Americans.
Who have the IQ to replace them so the anglos, like Jews wanted to breed maximum cynicism into the population to discourage outsiders from even trying to get into the club of elites. “The elites are all awful, you wouldn’t want to be apart of that!”
The problem for the elites now is that people actually fully believe that. And can’t send out anybody to deliver messages to middle America in behalf of the elites.
This coupled with the fact our elites have legitimately gotten more degenerate, shittier and brattier people don’t trust the elites anymore. At best they feel kinda stuck with them, kinda like the Soviet population before it collapsed. That’s not sustainable.
Germans also make predatory capitalism very hard. While german Americans weren’t communist but their community focused approach made it very hard to just rape the populace.
German Americans embody the Sam Francis MAR’s of fiscally left, culturally conservative. Which is the exact opposite of Jews and Anglos. Jews embrace predatory behaviors even more than anglos but are still far more accepting of vice than Midwest Germans.
Minnesota, Washington & California were the closest america got to an old style Germanic country. Where things were actually civilized and public dollars went to the public good.
Whether that be parks, public healthcare, education, transportation etc tax dollars went towards improving the communities lives. They were keenly aware they couldn’t have those things with non-whites or white deadbeats. Moving into heavily German areas was very difficult to do and simply wouldn’t sell to outsiders. They wouldn’t allow or heavily restrict vice and promote civilized behavior.
Minnesota is actually more literate of a state than Massachusetts, despite all the Ivey leagues in Massachusetts. Because rural Massachusetts was left to twist in the wind and the Anglo elites didn’t even care to help their poor Anglo brothers, largely out of a insecurity that if they helped lift them up they could replace them.
But really that probably wouldn’t of happened and if you’re only able to be able to be a king of bums- you’re not really a king. I’d rather be the elite of a high cast society than the king of Haiti. I’m not comparing poor anglos to Haitians but elite anglos do and they’d rather be a king of buns than an elite of competent people- if that meant sharing just a little bit of power.
Minnesota(and other Great Lake Midwest states), Washington & California were at different points the most civilized states. First pioneered by germans & nords. They had a real sense of community, investing in and protecting their communities.
And bcus Washington & California are coast states- nicer weather but importantly ports for the sea they were hit first with Anglo & Jewish tricks. Flooding them with first Scott’s-Irish migrants, blacks and overseas immigration. They destroyed the civil society and/or perverted it from uplifting bottom of society to promoting the bottom of society. Creating chaos and opportunities for massive exploitation.
Our elites war on normal behavior can largely be explained by Anglos & Jews fear and resentment of German Americans. And they’re desire to crush Germans.
Many Jewish & Anglo intellectuals write about the “creation of whiteness.” With a few different theories but what’s always left out is the fact German Americans were put into camps during both the first & Second World War. In numbers that dwarfed the Japanese(who were only rounded up during WWII, not WWI).
And unlike the Japanese the germans were never apologized to, let alone reparations or any type of reimbursement. They simply lost everything while being ethnically abused and indoctrinated.
Some intellectuals say whiteness formed during slavery, some say after WWII
All Europeans recognized other Europeans as white when they were outside of europe but it was in the camps during world war 1 and two were german Americans were abused to drop any ethnic pride and to only have white pride… which is why I always left when a shitlib now says “why have white pride, be proud of your ethnicity…” when germans have been told the exact opposite. Even prior to WWII and the anglos/Jews fought tooth and nail to get germans to accept whiteness over their germanness.
I also really doubt any of these shitlibs would be psyched to see 100+ million white Americans to start having German pride lmao, give me a break
The American elites have sought to breed cynicism into middle white Americans to discourage them from even trying… now that they’ve successfully bred distrust they’re afraid of the Frankenstein they created.
Anglos & Jews (elites) would always take much more lofty moral positions while delivering on them. A German would just say something’s are off the table. As a backhanded way of turning whites against their elites anglos & Jews would make BIG promises. Freedom of speech is an obvious one. Anglo & Jewish elites never really wanted or give free speech but would allow more than other European elites would.
Anglos & Jews have short changed on their promises for so long they’re desperately trying to act as if they embody those values
Which is why the elites are in a catch 22. Do you actually prosecute members of the elites who break the rules? Or get caught in let another lie???
Trump, Nixon and others have served as scapegoats. Both were often accused of crimes their opponents did. Which is a way of saying “oh yeah you plebs hated all that shit we did, well I only went along for the ride but trump/Nixon…. Those guys REALLY did the bad stuff.”
Which any thinking person could clearly see they weren’t in power very long and obviously aren’t main actors responsible whatever they’re being scapegoated for eg police state etc but it’s the elites hoping and wishing you’ll burn the witch and move on.
As a German American I want stability but our elites don’t.
They’re now doubly split bcus Silicon Valley over promised and under delivered so they pushed the antiwhite social agenda thinking they wouldn’t need as many whites. Self driving never came online, and many things are now 10+ years behind schedule and some of the elites are thinking maybe we still need more whites… the other elites are hoping and wishing tech will catch up and they can just ride this interim period out. While others realize it might be good to keep more white folks around, but unfortunately for them whites have checked out of the Americans project… so trying to course correct back to whiteness would require A LOT.
Also they’ve propagandized nonwhites so much against whiteness that any move towards centering whiteness would be seen as a move back slavery.
I obviously believe racial friction would always be there but the elites have scapegoated whiteness to such a degree that nonwhites don’t just have a default in-group out-group view of whites but rather see us as the most evil with zero legitimacy.
In years past depending on the nonwhite group, some might of seen us as evil- but smart evil. Now they don’t even have that respect for us. Many see us as evil AND dumb.
And moving back to centering whiteness, even just a little bit would be seen as not just evil but dumb as well. Nonwhites would freak the fuck out if we did a half measure of a half measure of a half measure
So we’ll see more flailing around like this from our elites. And anglos and Jews are expert can kickers & sprinters.
They simply try to kick the can down the road, and run as fast as they can to kick it again before anyone else can peek in and see what’s going on…. They’ve gotten away with going from scam to scam to scam to scam so they might be able to you. But it does seem as if they’re running dry.
Also nonwhites no longer care about beating up on poor whites (physically yes they love it). They’re angry and frustrated they haven’t actually taken the thrown yet(which does lead to poor whites being physically attacked). They want actual power and not just a Pat on the head telling them they’re smarter than those “poor white trash.”
They want the thrown and anglos are running out of whites to scapegoat. “Karen’s” didn’t hold their attention. Nonwhites love abusing white women but it’s not enough to deter them from wanting actual power.
They’re “tired & mad.” And virtues signaling is paying less and less. A good virtues signal could hold nonwhites in place for a decade or two, now a virtue signal buys you like like 6 months… whens the next “first step act” where’s reparations???
*my biggest beef with race mixing especially black men & white women is that it’s usually a revenge fantasy for blacks. And a women who would let herself be someone’s revenge fantasy is disgusting. The best weird race tensions is some black men put white women up on a pedestal and treat them like gold… and I wouldn’t want a super diva women either. Although most of the times even when black men put women on too high of a pedestal they get resentful and then it goes from kissing the white girls feet to beating her. Very rarely have I meet an interracial couple especially black & white that didn’t have some weird twisted shit behind it. I also think race mixing is unfair to the children but my rejection of race mixing isn’t just hatred. It’s what I think we’ll create the best future generations
That was quite the interesting comment. Minor detail: the Royal Family in England changed their family name in 1917 from Saxe-Coburg-Gotha to Windsor in the midst of WWI. British casualties had been piling up leading to anti-German sentiment rising in England leading to the name change.
There were false accusations that the Royals were disloyal because of their German ethnicity. This led to whispers that the war had stalled on the western front because of this disloyalty, not the invention of the machine gun and barbed wire. Ironically, pre-WWI Germany was popular in England and there was the traditional English distrust of France in spite of the signing of the Entente Cordiale with France in 1904 allying the two countries.
Your general theme of U.S. elites being afraid of their own has a lot of merit. There was no general ethnic solidarity amongst elite Whites for their own on-elite people which is one reason there was so much immigration. This nixed the chances of non-elites rising and provided a never ending source of cheap labor, the “reserve army of labor” Karl Marx referred to.
Long term of course this has proven to be a disastrous strategy as non-Whites swamped elite institutions such as universities and got elected to political office where their vicious anti-White animus is on full display. California went from a White and Republican state to a 3/4 colored state where the state government is owned by Democrats. They see politics as robbing the state for their own people without having an ounce of civic virtue. That’s a stupid White thing in their Third World eyes.
The only thing that unites the colored people in California and the rest of the country, such as it is, is this anti-White animus. It’s the KKK Krazy Glue that holds together the “Coalition of the Fringes” (H/T Steve Sailer) that is the Democrat Party. Unfortunately for what is left of the old elites this coalition doesn’t make distinctions between “good Whites” and “bad Whites”. We are all their enemy who has been robbing them of their rightful place under the sun and now it’s time for reparations from evil Whites, all Whites.
The prosecutor wanted the deal to be similar to what the average tax evader would face. Say Joe Blow’s used car dealership in Peoria? So they couldn’t say he either got special treatment or was singled out for political reasons. However, the whole thing takes the pressure off Hunter Biden to talk about what is really going on. It’s as if they let a low level mafia figure off without trying to leverage a deal in which he revealed something. It also is quite different to how the persecuted those around Trump. Look at the Manifort tax evasion case, no deal there, they held him in solitary to pressure him to “talk” (i.e. make up) something about Trump they wanted to hear. And even when there is no further action, they just persecute anyone who supports the guy. The establishment really freaked out when they were unable to fix the election through propaganda like they usually do. All old rules are out and we entered a new phase, particularly when they ran their color coded revolution in early 2020 that was obviously planned years beforehand.