I don’t see it happening.
I see a clearly enfeebled Joe Biden who is only growing weaker in the polls leading a fractured coalition that is more animated these days by protesting his events as “Genocide Joe” than in street fights with Proud Boys. I don’t see the Supreme Court removing Trump from the ballot.
Joe Biden decisively loses the 2024 election remains the most likely outcome in national and swing state polling. I don’t see anything that could happen over the next nine months that can change Trump’s public image. He has dominated our politics now for the last eight years. Everyone has already made up their mind about him and the polls have shown for months now that the public would rather take Trump back than put up with Joe Biden for another four years. Biden is losing Nevada by 7 points.
If Trump and the Right win the 2024 election, Texas isn’t going to secede. Also, if Joe Biden loses badly to Trump, it is more likely to provoke Democratic infighting. Most Democrats don’t even want him to run for reelection. Many will be relieved to see him gone. Biden will be blamed for refusing to step aside when voters telegraphed in every national poll that they weren’t going to put up with a senile president.
Is the Stormy Daniels hush money case going to cost Trump the 2024 election? The E. Jean Carroll verdicts and the fraud case haven’t put a dent in his numbers. No one cares about the classified documents. What happens if Joe Biden continues to deteriorate under pressure on the campaign trail?