Of all the contemptibly unscientific soft sciences, none is more detached from reality than political science. Mere detachment would be an understatement, as getting ahead in political commentary actually requires you to be relentlessly wrong, it seems.
Making a living in political analysis requires you to be in tune with the current zeitgeist, with your key donors, and with the system’s favor. This is why Hunter Wallace doesn’t make a living with political analysis, despite being dramatically more accurate and predictive than absolutely anybody who makes a living at the game.
While his list is impressive, I think I can do better. After all, I squarely defeated Hunter in 2012 by calling it strongly for Obama when Hunter’s models showed a narrow Romney victory. I then went for a victory lap in 2016, betting $500 worth of bitcoin on Trump’s primary victory and $500 in Trump’s total victory early in October, 2015. This was the political analyst’s equivalent of a figure skater’s elusive quintuple jump, given that it also rode the dramatic increase in bitcoin’s value over the same period.
Months later, Richard Spencer, and only Richard Spencer, exactly timed the popping of the cryptocurrency bubble in early 2018. While I lack Richard’s oracular power to actually time markets, I have performed well enough over the past decade to warrant making some specific predictions for the next decade.
Popperian Falsifiability is the least you should expect from people who expect you to read our opinions on the Internet. This is not an act of arrogance, but of humility. In the coming years, we can look back on this clear and direct list of predictions and adjust our analysis accordingly.
#1 – American Austerity
We’re nearing the conclusion of an upswing in the business cycle that’s timed to coincide with the Baby Boomers pulling their money out of the market to pay their filipina home health aides. Millennials and Zoomers will not prove an equal economic substitute. Nearly half are lacking the raw human capital to remain in the lead in the global economy, and the rest have lost the work ethic and drive for economic status defining prior generations.
#2 – Bond Bubble Bursting
An iconic aspect of the film The Big Short was when the financial analysts took the time to dig into the portfolios and then travel to the root of their investments to see if they’re fundamentally sound. The bond market, which has the same reputation for security and stability, is resting upon a monkey’s cage of derelict and dysfunctional municipal and state governments.
Any private citizen is welcome to attend the meetings where the money from these bonds is “invested.” I remember watching the live footage of the City of Charlottesville city council meeting and thinking to myself, “This is a college town. How dysfunctional must the major inner cities be?”
As with the real estate crisis, Joseph Kennedy’s stock market reforms have been long forgotten and atop the teetering bond market is a thriving ecosystem of clever derivative instruments which will exacerbate the fall-out when Peak Boomer (2029) strikes.
#3 – AltTech Revolution
My Protocols of the Elders of Google essay back in 2011 uncannily predicted this decade’s crackdown on the formerly open and free Internet. We’ll see this problem work itself out in the coming decade as the workarounds under development will go mainstream.
Unless the Big Tech oligarchs figure out some fancy Quantum Computing trick for breaking public key cryptography, it will remain possible to speak freely on the Internet. And the oligarchs aren’t going to resist the temptation to push the general public hard enough that they take an interest in the Dark Web, in end-to-end encrypted messaging, and in anonymous cryptocurrency transactions.
#4 – Trump Will Lose
Trump won’t just lose by a little bit. It will prove an historic defeat. Even if Trump had all the same enthusiasm today that he managed to achieve in 2016, the changing demographics over the last four years alone would result in an electoral college defeat. And unlike in 2016, the DNC will be so afraid of another surprise “Brexit Effect” defeat that they’ll spend the entire time during the general election wandering around Appalachian and Rust Belt towns in hard hats talking like John Mellencamp to appease the white working class.
#5 – AltRight Glasnost
There will be a bit of an indian summer for our movement after Trump’s defeat, as Trump Derangement Syndrome subsides and the general public gets over its panic about Trump’s fabled fascist shock troops. MSNBC will get boring, with little market for Rachel Maddow and pals’ delusional conspiracy theories.
#6 – White Rapture
The next stage of white flight after the suburbs is the small towns and rural enclaves. The homesourcing revolution will enable more white families to flee the cities and suburbs in search of “good schools” and “safe neighborhoods.” This process will be exacerbated by the bond market crisis, which will end the cheap money boom that the cities have enjoyed and put crippling property tax pressure on white urbanites.
#7 – Black Riots
We’ve gone so long without any major race riots that we’ve just about forgotten them. They’ll make their return, with the government affording the rioters plenty of “space to destroy.” These will push political polarization, with white heroes, martyrs, and victims emerging to drive white identity even more than the Trayvon Martin incident.
#8 – White Riots
In response to Climate Change concerns and as the only way to punish whites who flee to the countryside, they’ll recapture their lost property taxes in the form of dramatic fuel tax hikes. Given America’s demographic layout, fuel taxes are a racial tax on white people which is going to result in an American equivalent of the yellow vest protests in France.
#9 – Infrastructure Humiliaton
This will be the decade when America’s infrastructure crisis comes to the fore. With the austerity and bond market crises, there won’t be the money to repair roads, highways, bridges, and aging public works projects. There will be at least one incident that dwarfs Hurricane Katrina’s administrative and infrastructural blunders.
Meanwhile, China, Russia, Iran, and the Silk Road countries will be enjoying an infrastructure investment boom.
#10 – Go East, Young Man
“Go east, young man” will become a byword for the exodus of bright and ambitious young men (and women), with vibrant little expat communities of White Americans springing up in Kazakhstan and other unlikely locales.
For the first time ever, we’ll be talking about a “brain drain” from America. You’ll be invited at least once to a friend’s home in some exotic rainforest, and you’ll feel like you’re in the French Plantation Scene in Apocalypse Now if you take up his invitation.
#11 – Mexodus
Mass migration will slow, primarily on account of economic realities. Many will even return to their home countries on account of America’s racial antagonisms, economic strife, and our astronomical cost of living.
#12 – Declining Jewish Power
Several broad trends are working against the sort of monolithic power that the Organized Jewish Community enjoyed throughout the Jewish Century (20th). Implicit antisemitism has gone entirely mainstream, with popular opinion broadly turning against their political and social objectives alike.
While they’ll naturally wish to blame it all on outright antisemites like yours truly, the truth is more mundane. America’s tested the outermost boundaries of clapping along with the Jewish agenda and have nothing to show for it but lost wars, a hollowed out economy, and mutilated genitals.
Their jokes also stopped being funny, in part on account of their being gaslit by Trump’s trolling, but also because their style of humor relies on there being moral standards and assumptions about proper behavior to relentlessly critique and deconstruct. We’re arriving at the end of that lifecycle, where the only taboos and moral hang-ups left are their own.
Several major cartels that they relied on for their power and influence have been napstered in the past decade, and that process will continue. From the taxi medallion racket to distributors in the pornography industry to record label executives, it’s been a rough couple of decades for corrupt middlemen and their profit streams.
The bloom is off the rose, and even the Evangelicals are losing their fervor. They always overreach, and they’ll continue dominating the American political conversation for the foreseeable future. Our cause will continue to face persecution, but they’ll be too distracted by greater challenges to their hegemony to focus exclusively on White Nationalists.
#13 – Smart Contract Lending
Smart contracts are capable of facilitating tokenized loans, which can be repackaged and sold to a secondary market. The pieces are all on the table, but haven’t been put together correctly yet. They will be. And when they do, a large part of the economy will drop out of the conventional financial system.
Loan sharks will become a thing again, as enforcement of black market loan contracts will get creative.
#14 – Smart Contract Zero-Reserve Banking
Smart contracts enable one to tie up 100% of one’s balance in diversified investment instruments until the exact moment of withdrawal. The technology isn’t quite there yet, and the ecosystem isn’t quite there yet, either. But they will be. And normies will begin moving their savings into the cryptosphere.
#15 – Open Source Warfare
The best way to screw with the oligarchs is by empowering their citizenry to communicate and collaborate despite the empire. This is one reason why I’m optimistic about AltTech. Only a few million dollars would be enough to overcome the tech obstacles currently impeding left and right dissidents alike.
We don’t have that kind of money, but others who aren’t friends with our government do.
#16 – Failed State Problems
Aside from the infrastructure issues and economic troubles, a lot of the problems we typically associate with exotic third world countries will become facts of life. The cops will be more crooked. Bribes, kidnapping, and other banana republic bullshit will become more common.
#17 – Home School Wars
The technology has reached a maturity and the public schools have reached a crisis point where home school rights will replace gun rights as the ultimate implicitly white “security blanket” political issue. Even the parents whose kids are still in public school or private school will be anxious enough about the way things are heading to have an eye on the possibility of “pulling the kids out of school.”
The government and media which have largely humored this as an eccentric and exceptional fringe choice will try to treat them like the new anti-vaxxers, and you’ll start to see migrations as red states attempt to lure home school parents, blue states crack down with more “standards,” and it becomes the GOP’s biggest implicitly white issue.
#18 – Athleisure Cozy Craze
Pajamas, hoodies, and sweats will work their way up from Wal-Mart to Wall Street and the fashion walk. Suits and ties will look absurd and tryhard in more and more contexts, until funeral directors., Nigerians on the make, and young fogeys are the only ones still dressing “professionally.”
This isn’t to say that fashion will get cheap and comfortable. The more fashionable will flaunt designer brand athleisure wear, invest in expensive and uncomfortable shapewear, and spend more than ever on plastic surgery. The pinnacle of fashion will be looking like a wealthy and sexy person who absolutely could and would go jogging at the drop of a hat.
#19 – Eldercare Abuse
If you’re an attorney, you’ll want to be out in front of this. Baby Boomers going into assisted living and nursing homes will make their fear of mistreatment, neglect, and abuse a massive nationwide issue. Whatever the boomers think matters is the only thing that matters, at least for another decade or so.
With the exception of my own parents, who are wonderful people who deserve only the best, I couldn’t care less. It’s sick that this country leaves no elderly behind but leaves most of its infants and youths to struggle in deprived, poverty-stricken, and institutionally neglected (daycare) environments.
#20 – White Nationalist Growth
White Nationalism will become an actual youth subculture which will grow to match and exceed the development of the nineties skinhead subculture. We’ll have our own music scene. There will be some speakeasy-style event going on within driving distance of just about everywhere just about every weekend.
Young men will see it as the only truly rebellious and self-possessed posture against this evil empire. Young women will be drawn to a subculture of men who take health, fitness, family, and career seriously. They will neither take on a young fogey or “skinhead” look, but generally blend in with a “gray man” look that has its own very subtle in-group signals.
Explicit WN will finally become a popular thing because austerity and demographic change will make it impossible for all but the upper classes to buy or borrow their way out of third world depravity. Thinking and speaking explicitly about avoiding “minorities” will be Becky’s new “good schools” priority.
The “Fapocalypse” will continue, with most people of all races getting too lost in video games, pornography, and similar addictive distractions to reproduce, succeed economically, or be politically relevant. WNs will stand out and excel with RAM-style self-improvement and TWP-style community support strategies.
We’ll meet 2030 in a much worse demographic and economic situation but a much stronger political and social situation. We’ll have the basic building blocks we need to identify and execute a survival strategy for our people in the unstable and unpredictable decades to come.