#1. – Donald Trump Loses The 2020 Election
If I had to bet on the outcome of the 2020 election, I would predict that Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election. I’m not saying this because I am personally disappointed with him.
Trump won the 2016 election because disaffected swing voters turned out in record numbers in the Rust Belt and because the Democratic base was overconfident and failed to rally behind Hillary. Those non-traditional voters who won him the presidency have melted away which is why his campaign is making a play for states like New Mexico in 2020. The Trump coalition has shrunk, Democrats will be energized in 2020 and the demographics will be less favorable. The Silent Generation and Boomers are a declining share of the electorate and the demographic tipping point was the 2018 midterms. The energy is still also on the Democratic side.
#2. – Advances In Genetics Will Continue To Discredit Anti-Racism
I got this one right in the 2010s.
There has been a huge divergence between science and our growing understanding of genetic differences between human populations and the deep human past and the rise of woke culture which is based on the instruction of the Millennial generation in dogmatic adherence to the pieties of late 20th century political correctness, multiculturalism and postmodernism.
This is what we currently know about White America:
This is what I currently know about my ancestry:
I don’t have the updated version immediately at hand, by my DNA test results have only become more accurate since 2016. By 2030, the genetics of intelligence and the evolution of the modern human races will be well known thanks to AI’s superhuman levels of pattern recognition. I’m not sure how our society will deal with that knowledge in light of woke culture.
#3. – The Demographic Chickens Come Home To Roost
We’ve spent the last 40 years telling conservatives about the implications of changing racial demographics and the consequences of Whites becoming a minority in the United States. These warnings have been blithely dismissed until now, but in the 2020s a number of Red States – North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona – will become Blue States.
#4. – Conservatism, Inc. Collapses
Somewhere around the mid-2020s when Texas becomes a Blue State or possibly sooner after the 2020 election, Conservatism, Inc. will collapse. It will try mightily to attract new non-White voters, but it will fail to do so primarily because of its unpopular economic dogmas. In between a rising non-White electorate and an angry, beleagured and increasingly racialized White base, it won’t be able to perpetuate itself or meet the challenges of the future.
#5. – The Wokelash
The Democrats will return to power in the 2020s, but will preside over an America that is even more intensely polarized and is rapidly balkanizing due to their narrative and electoral strategy. The backlash against Barack Obama will also pale in comparison to the wokelash against the Biden, Sanders or Warren presidency. The Wokelash and the collapse of Conservatism, Inc. will drive millions of disaffected, alienated White Americans into the “far right.”
#6. – China Wins
In the 2020s, China will become a superpower and will economically surpass the United States, and will take advantage of America and the European Union’s internal loss of cohesion to assert its newfound dominance around the world. China will become the center of gravity and hegemon of the post-liberal world order. Foreign countries will seek to emulate China which will be wealthy, stable and homogeneous rather than the dysfunctional West.
#7. – The AI Revolution
The American liberal establishment has no idea how it is going to handle this. AI will creep into our lives in the 2020s. Automation will decimate working class and middle class jobs in the Heartland. Predictably, the mounting stress will balloon the constituency that is receptive to populism which will displace conservatism in the 2020s.
#8. – Post-Boomer America
The end is near.
The stranglehold of our parent’s generation over America is rapidly approaching its end. 2020 is their last hurrah. The Silent Generation and the Boomers were shaped by a mid-20th century America that is fading from view. The Boomers and their culture were decisively shaped by the Thirty Glorious Years. The America that elected Ronald Reagan will be dead in 2030.
#9. – Social Disintegration Accelerates
This is another easy call.
If our theory of liberalism and the two-story state is correct, then we can project the further erosion of our common culture and its substitution by the anonymity of the marketplace. Christianity will continue to decline. The family will continue to crumble. The nation will continue to disintegrate as the bonds that held it together are attacked by woke culture. With the AI revolution, we’re entering a bull market for the Arthur Flecks of the world.
#10. – The Crisis of Liberalism
In my view, the fruit was ripening throughout the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, but it will be harvested in the 2020s. Thirty years only seems like a long period of time to those who live through an era. Historically speaking, it is a blink of an eye. It takes time for a crisis to build up to a crescendo. There was a lot of ruin in what used to be our great country which was wrecked and transformed into what is now in the span of a generation thanks to modernism.
Liberalism will be challenged in the 2020s like never before. Will it survive the storm? Perhaps it will navigate the crisis and reform itself like FDR and the New Deal saved the system in the 1930s? Perhaps it won’t though and what could replace it as the system goes down?