Trump Hopes Coronavirus Deaths Won’t Hit 100,000

May 2, 2020 Hunter Wallace Health, Science 28

“The models were wrong.”

This is gospel among conservatives and libertarians. In much of the Dissident Right, the line was that it was a “hyped-up flu.” In fact, this virus was nothing compared to swine flu. If you thought the virus was more serious than being struck by lightning, you were being hysterical.

It’s true that Donald Trump’s favorite model – the IHME model – was wrong. He based everything on that particular model because it was the most optimistic one and told him there would only be 60,000 deaths. Even that model assumed that social distancing would last through August.

The MIT model which is based on machine learning is currently projecting 168,455 deaths by August. This model is also updated with new data like the IHME model. It is telling us nothing so far about how the reopening will go this month. As the reopenings play out, more data will come into the model and the projection will be updated. We currently have a 96% chance of 100,000 deaths by August 1. We have a 73% chance of getting there by June 1 and a 89% chance by June 15.

The model says nothing about the fall and winter of 2020/2021. How about this for an October Surprise? The deadliest month in American history was October 1918 when 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu in a single month. Can we surpass that? 53,000 Americans died in April.

Note: Those who are worried about a vaccine should relax. It took like 4 or 5 years to develop the mumps vaccine which was the fastest in history. There still isn’t a vaccine for HIV after almost 40 years.

Deaths from COVID-19 vs. Recent Flu Seasons in the U.S. [OC] from r/dataisbeautiful

A month ago:

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27 Comments

  2. No matter what happens, the Far Right has won the argument. Globalism is our enemy and it has been exposed for just how deadly an enemy it really is. Whether it is just the flu or worse, the Right needs to unite in the fact that globalism needs to be totally condemned and this tragedy should not go to waste.

    Nationalism is the only way to go for our survival.

    • We have far better materials than gauze,
      I would expect a commensurate improvement in protection.
      Certainly, a much better fit can be made.

    • The deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks, so it could be that deaths will drop in early May, but that will be because of the shut downs and so on that happened in April. The effects of reopening in early May would probably not be seen until late May or early June.

  7. O/T

    Brad,

    I just watched a segment of “Live PD”. They just did their “wanted” section and low and behold the two suspects they showed were in the parking deck at Charlottesville where you had that encounter with Deandrea and the flame thrower moron. Deandrea was show with his stitches. Of course they left out the part of the black trash starting the fight with that maglight. They showed photos of the two wanted described one being clean cut (he kind of looked like Richard Spencer wearing sun glasses) and six’ and the other as having a red beard and a mustache, 5’10 and a smoker. The swine detective of the CPD wants help in identifying them. If I knew them I would give them a heads’ up.

  9. Trump will just start telling outright lies about the number of deaths. Already his supporters are saying its only in the 30k to 35k range and that hospitals are inflating the numbers to secure funding. There are idiots out there who think he actually built his wall and that he got Mexico to pay for it.

    • The trick will be to claim only 35k domestically and 1 million when filing suit against the chinks.

  12. 100 year countdown for Satan to destroy the Church in Pope Leo vision of 1884. 1917 Fátima apparitions, saying the time will come when she will ask the Holy Father to consecrate Russia, which does not take place. She says In 1917 that the war will end, a worse war will break out during the reign of the Pius XI (1939 WWII). Russia will spread her errors around the globe. 1917 Bolshevik revolution. October 1918 deadliest month Spanish flu. 1929 apparition to Sister Lucia asking for the consecration. Beginning of 100 year countdown ending in 1929. 1973 Akita apparitions are a successor to Fatima on October 13 56 years to the day. Another 56 years gives you 2029. Akita was the half way point warning, “fire will from the sky and wipe out a great portion of humanity. The survivors will envy the dead.” Same day as opening of idolatrous Amazon synod there is an Akita follow up, 2019. Then Coronavirus. Fátima is to Akita as Spanish Flu is to Coronavirus. Fátima is to WWII as Akita is to coming war with China, a WWIII perhaps

  13. Hunter has lost a lot of credibility with this furthering of the fear.

    Nice guy, but he has zero idea of the financial impact this is having.

    During war people still go to work. And during this virus people need to work to support themselves. It’s a threat for sure. Losing everything is worse than death for most people.

    Not for trust fund babies that never worked a day in their lives though. Hunter, you are a soft fearful person. You couldn’t walk in most of our shoes.

      • The more you point out the obvious problem the more likely it is that you’ll be blamed for the 1million dead that never happened.

  14. Andrew Anglin’s ” Brad Griffin is not my Mommy” article at Unz Review cut you another hole, to paraphrase the vernacular. Perfect metaphor, too:. like a mother bossing her adult children around forever because She Knows Best, and holds moral authority over us as the Giver of Life, you and the other Democrats pretend you know what you are talking about (Facts have a Liberal Bias, they always tell us) and are entitled to run things for the rest of us children’s lives forever.

    Power is as Power does, restricting others so the strong can always win, keeping the wealth socially developed as if only they are important to the process of creation. You people steal like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates, then pretend we should worship your brillance . Congratulations on joining the other handsmaidens to TPTB. I’m sure you (won’t) live long and prosper as their useful idiot. They lie, and use crises like covid-19 to increase control. They will dump you in the end. Count on it.

  16. How do we know anyone has had the virus. No name is ever given plus people have stopped dying of everything else since this virus was hatched.
    Shouldn’t they be telling where those people who have virus have been as a warning for people to stay away. Makes no sense and seems like it is all political.

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