State of the South: Projected 2012 House and Senate Races

American South

I’ve used the NY Times 2010 House Map and the NY Times 2012 House Race Map to check for changes in the partisan composition of Southern representatives in the House of Representatives:

Louisiana

Louisiana is the only Southern state that lost a House seat due to redistricting. As things stand today, the Republicans are expected to drop from 6 seats to 5 seats while the Democrats will retain 1 House seat based on New Orleans.

R -1

Oklahoma

The Republicans are expected to win all the House seats in Oklahoma. Democrats are expected to lose Dan Boren’s Blue Dog seat in Oklahoma 2.

R +1

Missouri

In Missouri, Democrats will lose a House seat in the Missouri suburbs to Republicans, who will retain Ike Skelton’s old Blue Dog seat.

R +1

Arkansas

In Arkansas, Republicans will pick up Mike Ross’s Blue Dog seat in Arkansas 4. They will control all the House seats in Arkansas after having won two seats from Democrats in the 2010 midterms.

R +1

Mississippi

In Mississippi, Republicans will retain the two Blue Dog seats they won in the 2010 midterms.

No Change

Alabama

In Alabama, Republicans will retain Bobby Bright’s old Blue Dog House seat in Alabama 2.

No Change

Texas

Texas gained 4 seats through redistricting. The Democrats and Republicans are each expected to pick up 2 seats in Texas.

No Change

Tennessee

In Tennessee, the Republicans are expected to hold on to the 3 seats that they won in the 2010 midterms. Democrats will hold onto to their urban enclaves in Nashville and Memphis.

No Change

Kentucky

In Kentucky, Ben Chandler’s seat is rated “lean Democratic,” but is unlikely to fall to Republicans.

No Change

Georgia

In Georgia, Republicans will pick up at least one seat due to redistricting. We have already seen that John Barrow’s toss up Blue Dog seat is the last seat held by a White Democrat in the Deep South.

R +2

South Carolina

In South Carolina, Republicans will pick up a new seat due to redistricting.

R +1

Florida

Florida will pick up 2 seats due to redistricting. Democrats are expected to gain 2 seats. There are 2 more toss up seats.

D +2

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Democrats currently have 7 seats in the House. They will probably come out of the 2012 election with around 4.

R +3

West Virginia

In West Virginia, Democrats will likely hang on to Nick Rahall’s seat.

No Change

Virginia

In Virginia, Republicans will hold on to the three seats they won the 2010 midterms.

No Change

Maryland

In western Maryland, Democrats will pick up Roscoe Bartlett’s seat.

D +1

Note: In the Senate, there are only 3 races of interest: Kaine vs. Allen in Virginia, Nelson vs. Mack in Florida, and Akin vs. McCaskill in Missouri. The RCP average has McCaskill, Nelson, and Kaine winning.

In Arkansas, the Democratic-controlled state legislature is expected to fall to Republicans. When the dust settles after the 2012 election, the Democrats will be pushed back to the West Virginia legislature and the Kentucky House.

About Hunter Wallace 12380 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

5 Comments

  1. “There is a nation trapped within the carcass of America”

    Unfortunately true…

    There needs to be a Southern caucus within the congress. Then all our good Southern Republicans can figure out how to bolt from the party and form a Southern political union with the ultimate objective of freedom for all Southerners from federal tyranny.

    I have a dream…

    Deo Vindice

  2. I understand that the typical Southron voter thinks voting for the gop is voting for a restoration of the Constitution and the old ways. I wish the typical Southron voter knew better

  3. Hunter, I don’t think blue dogs are as much of a problem for you as the yellow dogs. It really is astonishing how devoutly some northern whites vote Democrat.

    Stonelifter, if you could distance your emotions from your politics for two seconds I think you’d be able to see that the more that can be accomplished through the ballot box the less left to do outside it. Some things just can’t be rushed.

  4. Stonelifter: I, as you, took an oath years oath years ago to defend the Constitution. However, I have also come to the unsettling but unarguable conclusion that the Constitution has failed to protect our freedoms. Moreover, the honest inquirer will realize that the Constitution was never meant to protect our freedoms, but rather to destroy State sovereignty and establish the supremacy of Washington, DC. Worse, since 1864 it’s sole use has been as a vehicle to advance leftist utopian degeneracy for which it is considered sacred. For any arguments or force toward protecting liberty and State sovereignty, is is regarded as just a piece of paper.
    The Bill of Rights, the part of the Constitution that is always cited when conservitards are asked to name a right protected by the Constitution, was forced in there by Anti-Federalists. Nearly every ammendment since 1864 has been about destroying the 10th Amendment, which has been totally raped.
    I will fulfill by lifelong oath, but only for the document and the 1st 10 amendments. All the rest is Marxist cankerous growth that needs to be destroyed.

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