Ultimate 2012 Weekend Pre-Election Thread

BRA

The floor is yours …

Update: My predictions are the same as Barone’s … no sign of D+8 electorate so far in early voting, Romney wins, and Obama makes history again by becoming America’s first one term African-American president.

Obama: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada.

Romney: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio.

Update: Here are the closing arguments: President Barack Obama: My Vision for America and Mitt Romney: My Vision for America.

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50 Comments

  1. Romney’s fate depends on Northern Whites, the kind of people who are comfortable with gay marriage and a Black president. What more does anyone need?

  2. I’m pretty sure Obama’s got this locked in, at least based on FB posts and bumper stickers in New England.

  3. When the shooting starts in earnest, don’t say you weren’t given fair warning. Hope your preps are complete.

  4. In these rural parts of this northern state the Ron Paul signs are about as common as Obama 2012 signs, and Romney-Ryan signs vastly predominate. However, the nearby coal mining towns and patches are inhabited by “traditional” straight-ticket Democrat voters who WILL happen to vote Obama just because he is the Democratic candidate.

  5. Why postpone? Why kick the can down the road? Why push the snowball further up the hill? Every day that passes we become fewer and they more. Why leave this to our kids?

  6. I’m pretty much winding it down for the night, though I might have one more burst. I’ll be back tomorrow though. Rasmussen has trended down for Romney in the nat polls today, and Gallup is till kinda AWOL, so the guys at BGW are starting to worry. Me, I don’t really care enough to worry. I’m calling this thing on the fundamentals, poll internals, common sense, campaign strategies, early votes, and historical context. Not a bump here or there in the polls, a storm, or fatass NJ gov’s slobbery wet kisses with 0bama.

  7. Oh stop debating! Just vote now! It’s easy and quick and it costs us nothing! So simple and straightforward, absolutely NOT worth debating any longer! It takes just a few minutes, and then we can continue doing many other things that are much more effective.

    So let us not debate any longer now, but just vote for the slightly less evil choice, the one that most of you favoured very strangely over a much better truly constitutional candidate in the primary season.

  8. There is less enthusiasm for Obama this time out, for sure. But how many liberals do you know that would actually not vote for Obama?

    Then you’ve got a McCain who isn’t even nominally Christian and four years for conservatives to bust out of the neocon Stockholm Syndrome.

    The negatives are about equal for both sides. That equals an Obama win.

    The world isn’t going to end.

  9. “The world isn’t going to end.”

    – When your man Obama loses, it probably will. For you at least 🙂

  10. No, I’ll be fine with Romney. For me personally it will probably be better. I will make more money. For whites and Western Civilization in America, I don’t believe it will be. But if it is, great.

  11. OD is wisely sitting out this election. I’m voting for Virgil Goode in Alabama. I’m only weighing in here because everyone is focused on the election and I enjoy political analysis. Everything will be back to normal by mid-November.

  12. That’s obviously a challenging precedent for Obama, who is running at best even with Romney, if not trailing slightly, in most credible national surveys. Even Obama, while winning Ohio comfortably in 2008, drew 51.4 percent of the vote here, pointedly less than his 52.8 percent national showing. All of that suggests Obama would be defying history to take Ohio in an election where he wins the national popular vote by a hair, or tries to amass an Electoral College majority while losing the popular vote altogether. “Relying on Ohio is not where you want to be as a Democrat,” says Terry Nelson, the national field director in 2004 for George W. Bush, who clinched the presidency by defeating the Democratic nominee in Ohio by 118,000 votes after an epic investment from both sides. “I would not be sleeping well.”

    And yet to win Ohio this year, Obama may need to do something Democrats have almost never done in the past nine decades: win a higher share of the vote in the state than he does nationally. Almost always, the GOP nominee has run stronger in Ohio than nationally.

  13. Romney is something of an unknown, he has taken every single side of every single issue so who knows how he would actually govern. Maybe he would actually be a good President? Nothing he has said so far would lead me to believe that though. If there is any reason to vote for Romney it is that he is against amnesty. Although he won’t deport so nothing would change much.

  14. On the other hand there are reasons to not vote for Romney. His connections to Neocons like John Bolton and Dan Senor is a good reason to not vote for the guy. His wanting to increase the legal immigration quotas for highly skilled immigrants (from mostly China and India) to screw highly skilled American whites out of making a living is a good reason not to vote for the guy.

  15. When the returns begin coming in on Tuesday night, Romney supporters shouldn’t get too excited if the early returns show Romney up in the key states. One standard Democrat trick is using late reporting. In every key state, the heavy Democrat precincts generally report last. I’d lay odds Ohio and Pennslyvania’s blackest and most liberal counties will report late very late. This way, if it’s close, they’ll know exactly how many fraudulent votes Obama needs.

  16. “Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45%”:

    Take away either the liberal urban voters or the coal regions’ “traditional” straight-ticket Democrats and it would be a Romney landslide. Maybe the post-hurricane turmoil in the eastern and liberal parts of the state will depress liberal voting.

  17. That same poll shows Bob Casey losing his Senate seat to some Republican. If you think Romney is going to win Pennsylvania you truely do believe in miracles.

  18. Lew may be on to something. Under-reporting could whip welfare dependent Democrats into fearful activity and make Republicans complacent and decide to forgo voting after work. On the other hand, it is said most Americans follow what appears to be the biggest crowd and want to vote for the sure winner instead of a loser.

  19. Obama won Ohio while underperforming his total in the national electorate. He only won there by 51.7 which isn’t that impressive. In Ohio, more Democrats voted for McCain than Republicans voted for Obama.

    Obama won Ohio because of Independent voters in 2008. Let’s see if he has a D+9 electorate on election day there like PPP assumes to give him a 5 point lead in the polls.

  20. If Romney wins, Sheldon Adelson will want some pay back. That means war on Iran, and maybe Syria, and doing whatever Israel wants. Domestically, Romney will do what the Republicans always do: he will start screwing the working and middle class white folks who voted for him as soon as the polls close. That means amnesty, massive deregulation for his friends in Wall Street, big finance and big business, cuts in capital gains and other taxes on parasitical investment income, tax and economic policies geared toward extracting wealth and sending it to America’s top 0.01%, and wealth transfers from the white middle class to Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and the MIC. He will do all of this without cutting wealth redistribution from whites to non-whites at the bottom. Romney might create a few jobs at McDonalds. His biggest job creation success at Bain Capital was creating low wage jobs with no insurance at Staples. That’s just for starters. It’s sad to see all these white folks putting their hopes in that man.

  21. Lew,

    You make it sounds like Romney is the president. Democrats have controlled the White House in 3 out of 5 terms in the past twenty years. It was Clinton who presided over NAFTA and the deregulation of Wall Street in the late 1990s.

  22. Nothing had changed in Florida … just polls using ridiculous samples of Democrats.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954149/posts

    Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

    Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

    Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

    “I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

    “Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

    Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

  23. I have a feeling the entire election will come down to Ohio on one hand and Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, & New Hampshire on the other. If either candidate wins Ohio and just one of the other 4 states they win the E.C.

    Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan & Minnesota will do what they always do to the GOP on Presidental election day… disappoint them.

  24. Spot on, Lew. Your remarks bring to mind some of H.L. Mencken’s immortal bon mots regarding politics and the government.

    “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

    “In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican.”

    “I believe that all government is evil, and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.”

    Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

    Deo Vindice

  25. If Obama wins Ohio and New Hampshire and Romney wins Nevada, Colorado and Iowa. It is 269-269, wouldn’t that be a fun mess.

  26. I should have said. If Obama wins Ohio, Romney has to sweep Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire to win. If Romney wins Ohio he still has to win one of the four NV, CO, IA, NH to win.

    If Romney just wins Ohio and Obama holds all of his states in the “No Toss Up” map Obama still wins 272-266.

  27. Romney and the GOP are getting exactly what they deserve. They know why California went from solid Republican to lopsided Democrat. They supported the policies that led to it.

  28. Last time Pennsylvania & Michigan voted GOP in a Presidental Election, 1988.

    Wisconsin, 1984.

    Minnesota, 1972.

    But Mitt Romney is going to shatter all of that in Svigor’s and Hunter’s theoretical huge landslide.

  29. What about the Democrats?

    They are openly and explicitly anti-White. Obama even reached over Congress to issue his DREAM Act executive amnesty. If the Republicans suck on immigration and trade policy, it is sensible to vote for Virgil Goode.

  30. “Romney and the GOP are getting exactly what they deserve. They know why California went from solid Republican to lopsided Democrat. They supported the policies that led to it.”

    Exactly 100% right. True Conservatives like Pat Buchanan and Tom Tancredo have been begging the GOP to at least put up some fight to save themselves from demographic oblivion for years and years. The GOP chose short-term profit over long-term existence. Now, of course, it is too late. I agree with you, they deserve their inevitable fate.

  31. Some libtards are driven by pathological racial and cultural animus toward White Southerners. In contrast, the hostility of the neocons is typically directed outward toward foreigners like Muslims.

  32. I think Lew has a plausible case against Romney.

    He doesn’t have a plausible case for positively voting for Obama. The case against Romney is also a case for voting for Virgil Goode. It should be emphasized here that every Republican isn’t as bad as Romney on immigration. Sen. Jeff Sessions, for example, is very good on immigration and most Republican Congressman are now pretty good on immigration too.

    I’m voting for Virgil Goode, Judge Roy Moore, and Rep. Martha Roby on Tuesday. I’m also happy to vote for a Republican state legislature. The Alabama Republicans took heat for passing an immigration bill.

  33. “One standard Democrat trick is using late reporting. In every key state, the heavy Democrat precincts generally report last. ”

    That’s always a given.

  34. In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year, a republican district clerk beat them at their own game by misreporting votes to the AP. Real tally came out the next day and the Dane and Milwaukee county Dems didn’t know what hit them.

  35. “I’m voting for Virgil Goode in Alabama.”

    That I can really respect. Unlike not voting. Here in Massachusetts though, neither Goode nor Miller are on the ballot, and I’m not going to getstonedandvoteforjohnson, so I am voting for Romney. For some thoughts on voting Republican, see yesterday’s post on my weblog.

    I enjoyed the pic of the skin with the “Put the White back in the White House” shirt! Naturally, the original source Andrew Sullivan has some crooked analysis. He says (according to some AP poll) that Obama loses 3% of the vote and gains only 2% of the vote due to racial bias, making this into a barb against White racism. But, given that there are so many fewer Black Americans than White Americans, it would seem like the disproportionate share of bias falls to them, with a lesser share among mestizos.

    Romney-Ryan 2012!!!

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