BRA
The floor is yours …
Update: My predictions are the same as Barone’s … no sign of D+8 electorate so far in early voting, Romney wins, and Obama makes history again by becoming America’s first one term African-American president.
Obama: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada.
Romney: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio.
Update: Here are the closing arguments: President Barack Obama: My Vision for America and Mitt Romney: My Vision for America.
I’m in the eye of the storm, Cincinnasty, Ohio. I went to the rally in West Chester, Ohio last night, the first political rally I had ever been to. My cousins dragged me there, 7 hours before the thing began. But it paid off, as our spot was within spitting distance of the podium.
Faux Country-Rap-Rocker Kid Rock got on stage and did some bleeding heart acoustic numbers about how he’s from Detroit and he feels their pain, even though, like Wigger Eminem or the corpulent Michael Moore, he never lived in that shit hole. Rudy Giuliani was the best speaker, blew the house in with his rabble-rousing and even managed to go the whole time without mentioning 9-11.
Some ex-treasurer in a skirt, a Hispandering Latina who out-uglies Sonia Sotomayor gave a “Viva La Romney” chant and the robots who are losing their jobs all cheered. They cheered even harder for the daddy of amnesty, Marco Rubio.
Bobby Jindal spoke at one point. He has to piss off the Left, being the antithesis of the identity-politicking minority. He speaks extemporaneously without notes better than any Republican short of old Newt. I remember Wilmot Robinson saying in his book “The Dispossessed Majority” that every man has his race, and then he has his “mind race.” Jindal’s mind-race is white, no matter what anyone says.
Josh Mandel was the low point, and I say that as a fellow veteran. He was an intel pogue REMF in the Marines, stationed in some map-covered air-conditioned palace in the Anbar province, which makes him a real Murrican hero and whatnot. He managed to lay off the Holocaustianity references, unlike in his debate with Sherrod Brown, where he talked about his grandparents suffering in the Shoah. He has a high-pitched whiny voice, and he exudes this teacher’s pet vibe that made me want to smack him.
McCain has whored himself out over a half decade, and is part of the sclerotic establishment who thrive off the lack of term limits, a la Robert Byrd and his ilk, but I still feel some respect for the man personally, and I could not help but admire him. Ryan was competent, had his message down rote.
Seeing Romney up close, shaking his hand, I did not detect devil horns hiding under that coiffure. One thing I noticed: he has the largest head of any celebrity I’ve seen in person (excepting O.J. Simpson). Another thing I noticed: Conservative women are much, much hotter than liberal ones. It’s not just the talking heads, like Coulter, Ingraham, and Malkin (yes, I know she is a gook, but I still have some yellow fever left, even though I will not procreate with them).
In all, a good time was had by all. Fairly interesting.
“Hunter Wallace says:
November 3, 2012 at 7:06 am
I’m less concerned about Iraq or Iran than Dixie. The hostility of the neocons is directed toward Iran. The hostility of Democrats is directed squarely at us”
OMG. You are finally “seeing” what I have been essentially saying all along. Simply exchange “Dixie” with “White People” and there ya go. I know your chief concern is Dixie. Cool. I care about White in general
We’ll sink or swim together, in the end.
http://t.co/ZiiECUUl
‘Youth’ fears Romney will bring back slavery.
Special Ed future Astronaut Oner Stoodint believe the Romman bring black slavery.
Dixie won’t have a future if its young men are dying in Iran, Syria, & Lebanon. And Dixie won’t have a future if it is bankrupted to pay for wars halfway around the world. Dixie has a border with Mexico (Texas) which isn’t even being protected, it is amazing we protect the borders of Iraq, Afghanistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia etc. but not our own.
The GOP of 2012 is about as good for the South (and white folks) as the GOP of 1861.
When I say the “GOP” I mean the national, AIPAC/La Raza/Chamber of Commerce GOP. If you live in a Conservative state that has a State GOP that fights illegal immigration (like Arizona, Alabama, South Carolina etc.) vote for them.
Apologies for the desultory posting, just got power back at my folk’s house. Lots of good racist people hurt by Sandy; this is not Katrina. Thanks to Southrons for the help they sent our way and hats off to Christie.
Vote White.
Want to know what happened to all the conservative desire to fix our country that built up during the Clinton and Bush 1 years and was supposed to come to fruition with Bush 2? It got scattered all over the sands of Iraq and Afghanistan. That is what neoconservatism is. That is what neoconservatism does. That is its purpose, its raison d’etre. It is a revolutionary doctrine that liberals could only hope to get away with. You think they’re about the middle east? Ha. Believe me, they’re all about you. Those TSA agents sticking their hands down your pants at your local airport? That is a neoconservative calling card, stuck right between your eyes, while you were thinking it was about Iraq.
Bush didn’t have horns either. I like Romney. I wish we had enough conservative capital to give him the Presidency. Let him mess around in DC for a few years, see if he can fix anything. But we don’t. Because the remaining balance we have stored up in hope that he will fix DC, the budget, laws, etc., will be taken and sifted again across the sands of the middle east. And a couple of new calling cards — domestic drones and highway checkpoints — will be thrown in front of your face. Done by a white guy, with white republican Americans cheering it along. And we will be that much further from getting to where need to be.
In spite of the ironclad case you have made Hunter, I just can’t see America falling for that again.
Yeah, before I went to bed last night I read some more about Pennsylvania and Barone’s prediction there is making more sense to me. And Wisconsin will go Republican before Pennsylvania will, so Romney could end up taking both.
Here is what is going to happen. This is not a prediction. I am from the future and this shit is in the history books in the time I came from.
Obama will lose. Niggers will beat up a few the White people who are stupid enough to live around them. Not a big deal. No National Guard needed. The local cops handle it.
Romney puts a few Band-Aids on the economy and we limp along with a slight rise in economic growth. He says tough things to China and forces them to raise their minimum wage to 28 cents per hour, thus leveling the playing field and assuring fair trade practices. We all go back to eating shit burgers watching too much television. Section 8 continues to expand Negro presence into gated communities. The EBT cards continue to function flawlessly.
Paul Ryan turns out to be a psychopath who actually DOES push old ladies in wheel chairs off cliffs. In an effort to appease Blacks who were angry because they had not yet gotten their houses in the gated communities, President Romney appoints former president Barack Obama to replace Ryan as vice president.
During hunting trip with former vice president Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney will die from an accidental gunshot wound to the face. Barack Obama will once again be sworn in as President of the United States.
There. That’s all I’m going to tell you. You’ll know the rest of the story soon enough.
A new avalanche of polls today shows Romney behind everywhere including Florida and Ohio. The outcome will probably be close to the exact opposite from Barone’s prediction. Romney simply needs too many votes in places that don’t vote White. We’re taking about northern Whites here. These are mostly states that Republicans have been losing in landslides for years.
The Florida poll is bullshit.
Lew, that’s safely in the bag for Romney.
There is less enthusiasm for Obama this time out, for sure. But how many liberals do you know that would actually not vote for Obama?
The only real liberals I know are all disillusioned with 0bama. As in, not voting for him on Tuesday.
The negatives are about equal for both sides.
If that’s been your math, no wonder you’re so off. No, the negatives for both sides aren’t even remotely equal. It’s a clear winner vs. loser contest in an election where Romney’s favorables play exactly into what voters want.
Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.
There are a couple of guys who really know their stuff when it comes to Pennsylvania saying Susquehanna is a good firm. That they run polling for a lot of the Pennsylvania pols’ campaigns and really know the state, and if they’re showing Romney up, he’s up.
But as Gottfried suggests, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Even Dick Morris is wavering. “Sudden Danger Signs in Polling”
Bzzt, “even Dick Morris is wavering” bzzt. Nobody gives a shit what Morris says, not even Republicans. The guy’s a hack. I haven’t quoted him once.
Lew may be on to something. Under-reporting could whip welfare dependent Democrats into fearful activity and make Republicans complacent and decide to forgo voting after work. On the other hand, it is said most Americans follow what appears to be the biggest crowd and want to vote for the sure winner instead of a loser.
I think this underestimates the electorate’s mood. There are a LOT of 0bama-haters out there. And the 0bama lovers have shrunk from a mighty river to a feeble stream.
No one should take Dick Morris seriously.
THANK you.
You make it sounds like Romney is the president.
Lew makes it sound like he’s a leftist. Just sayin’.
Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.
A Florida “insider” at BGW claims this poll is from the same outfit that created Politifact, and their business model is accurate polls, not swaying elections. FWIW.
Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Romney’s strength is being a giant morally and cognitively compared to 0bama.
I have a feeling the entire election will come down to Ohio on one hand and Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, & New Hampshire on the other. If either candidate wins Ohio and just one of the other 4 states they win the E.C.
I don’t. All Romney needs out of those states are Colorado and Ohio, and he has both.
I should have said. If Obama wins Ohio, Romney has to sweep Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire to win. If Romney wins Ohio he still has to win one of the four NV, CO, IA, NH to win.
Yeah, that’s better, but again, I see Romney taking Ohio and Colorado, and the rest as potential lead-padders.
Last time Pennsylvania & Michigan voted GOP in a Presidental Election, 1988.
Wisconsin, 1984.
Minnesota, 1972.
But Mitt Romney is going to shatter all of that in Svigor’s and Hunter’s theoretical huge landslide.
Tut-tut, I predicted no landslide. I said it was in the realm of likely possibilities, just as a narrow 0bama win is. My prediction is still Barone -Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I did not call Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota for Romney. Truth is I don’t care. I’m happy enough to predict a comfortable Romney win and leave it at that.
I’m less concerned about Iraq or Iran than Dixie.
Thank you. As I said a couple days ago at Sailer’s blog, I’m not really anti-war any more. Or rather, being anti-war has dropped waaay down my list of priorities. I haven’t changed position, I still despise the neokahns and would love to purge them via lamppost. But, a couple of things. 1: If you don’t want to die in a foreign war, don’t join the military. Simple, eh? If that’s not at the forefront of your values concerning the military, in my mind you’re advocating turning the military into a welfare bureaucracy for fat cosmopolitan liberals, like Hitler spoke of in Weimar Germany, where the military was full of Jew pencil-pushers (officers, mind you). No thanks. I’m for going in the opposite direction and spinning off ALL non-combat jobs to contractors or some other third party. Tinkerbell can join, but he should know he’s going to have to shoot at people. 2: I don’t care if we bomb darkies. I just don’t. If anything, it’s a plus, creating hatred between us and the darkies. 3: if the gov’t is going to spend a trillion a year, I’d rather it be on bombs and guns than welfare for blacks and browns. By far. 4: at least military spending means we can keep SOME real jobs here in America.
Undoubtedly most of those “other” voters are former R’s not voting for Romney. Just like the sample we see here at OD.
That’s what I call a “tell.” Wishful thinking, mate.
Romney has Nevada.
I’ll be mildly surprised if Romney takes Nevada. The whole state is basically just Las Vegas (Clark County), and it’s full of corrupt Dem union voters.
The silent less than majority Whites here in Vegas are voting Romney.
I doubt bongo will win Clarke Co.
Romney bumper stickers and yard signs out number, bongo signs.
Hey, I hope you’re right. He’s got the Mormon vote locked, and they’re like 7%. They will have very high turnout and they’ll all vote for Romney, countering the spic vote.
Just as I predicted, the ludicrous polls which assume Republicans are going to underperform McCain in 2008 and Obama is going to overperform 2008 are way off the mark:
This was the story for me yesterday. Of course, the media largely ignored it. You really had to sift to find anyone willing to talk about the FACT that Romney’s early voting is totally contradicting the poll (top line) averages.
Even if we give Nevada to Obama, there is no sign at all of a D+7 to D+9
Nope. It looks like Romney will lose Nevada by a small margin. But I stopped paying much attention to Nevada a couple days ago. Maybe something has changed since then.
Why do I want Romney to win? Simple. I like watching a nigger get his ass whipped. I’m a simple, simple man.
I agree, though I’d add that I enjoy watching the nigger and the entire Jew-run media machine of America get its ass whipped by one white man.
Oh my. It looks like the Obama campaign has been caught flat-footed. If Organizing For America is just starting to rustle up volunteers, it is already too late. The momentum is already beyond their control. Romney is already booked to outspend Obama on the airwaves by a 4 to 1 margin in all the PA markets, including Philadelphia, and will be doing a campaign event in Bucks County which is a crucial portion of the Philadelphia suburbs. According to ground reports in Pennsylvania, the Romney ground game and volunteers are off the charts enthusiastic and are definitely believing they will win Pennsylvania. Obama has no time to buy ad time and very little money left with the lion’s share of resources devoted to trying to hang on to Ohio. The New York Times and Ed Rendell are openly very worried about Pennsylvania. I remember a bolt out of the blue whiplash like this happening in the Coakley-Brown Massachusett’s Senate race in 2010.
Field Marshall Romney swings around behind 0bama’s Maginot Firewall.
What’s more, Pennsylvania has not been saturated with political advertising, giving Romney and his supporting groups an opportunity to sway last-minute voters with a barrage of ads. Obama is not ignoring the state, and now is buying commercial time in the state as well. He’s also sending his most formidable weapon, former President Bill Clinton, to the state Monday to campaign in Pittsburgh, Scranton and in the Philadelphia area.
Also, there’s a guy running for congress or something in Pennsylvania who’s been beating up his opponent by tying him to 0bama every chance he gets, and in all his ads. Meaning, 0bama’s unpopular in Pennsylvania. The Penn insiders at BGW say that’s why they aren’t sending 0bama to Pennsylvania, but Clinton instead. Maybe bullshit, but worth considering.
If I were Eschatological I would see the Sandy Storm as a sign from god sent to Babylon punishing them for their iniquity. The core voting area for the Dems just got wasted.
I’ve said the exact same thing on BGW a couple times; if you’re the superstitious conservative type, it’s easy to see Sandy as God’s wrath against Yankees for their decadent support of the mulatto. Though I obviously don’t put it that way. Fun fact: the Bible forbids putting foreigners or racial aliens in leadership positions. “You shall choose your kings from among your own people,” something like that. Voting for 0bama if you’re white is literally a sin.
Obama is starting to pull away. Two polls today show him with leads in Ohio and Florida (to match his leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin …etc.) .
It’s hard to take Kool-Aid swilling like this seriously. Romney is kicking 0bama’s ass on the ground everywhere, but a couple of Jew polls miles from the front announce “Dewey defeats Truman!” Gimme a break already. Polls do not decide elections; elections do.
Another thing I noticed: Conservative women are much, much hotter than liberal ones.
Yep. They dress nice, put on makeup, do their hair, and they tend to be breeders, not feminazis.
Special Ed future Astronaut Oner Stoodint believe the Romman bring black slavery.
Niggers fear being of use more than anything else in the universe.
The David Duke link is “file not found.”
Romney just drew 30,000 people last night in an Ohio rally. Ewbama purple lips drew 2800.
Who’s going to win Ohio again?
Lew/libtard Ewbama spin: Dems want to go with more “intimate” settings. LOL.
Intrade predicted a Kerry win. At some points it was nearing 100%.
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/obama-campaign-acknowledges-early-vote-might-be-cannibalized/
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/senator-sharon-angle-agrees-with-nate-silver-barack-obama-has-an-84-chance-of-winning/
Silver makes such pronouncements with outlandish statistical weights as if it is nearly unbelievable that the poll results could be wrong. One of the main purposes of this blog was to look at the exact same polls, analyze the internal data and test whether the poll data match up with the poll results. We found that time after time after time the results unequivocally do not match up with the internal data. Thanks to Sean Davis, we are reminded this was the identical situation only 2 years ago is probably the highest profile race where a deeply unpopular Senate Majority leader was behind in nearly every poll yet still won.
Out of 14 polls between October 1 and election day, Sharon Angle led in 12 of those polls. Her average lead on election day according to Real Clear Politics was +2.6. She lost by -5.6 points — an 8.2 point swing. The polls were not just wrong, but WAY wrong. Could anyone analyzing the internals of these polls see this? Why yes they could. But even in the highest profile contest of the cycle, almost no one did such an analysis. The few who did, Democrat pollster Mark Mellman, Republican pollster Glen Bulger and liberal reporter/columnist Jon Ralston, all consistently said the polls were wrong — and each was largely ignored until proven correct on election day. Why did they know this? Because they looked at the data in the polls and said the internal information does not reflect the top-line results and the Nevada electorate on election day will not reflect what these polls are indicating. They were right and the polls were wrong … by A LOT.
I find it hard to believe that Intrade would predict that a challenger has a 100% chance of defeating an incumbent considering all of the advantages incumbency brings.
Remember what I said about a “black swan”?
Here we go:
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/
Gottfried: so, you can go do the homework for a change. I saw the graphic and I’m assuming the guy wasn’t lying and Photoshopping, that’s good enough for me.
The President will easily win re-election.
None of the genuises here will let reality get in the way of their amazing political judgment and make an effort to understand why and where they went wrong.
Those are my predictions.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=intrade+predicted+kerry+win&gbv=2&oq=intrade+predicted+kerry+win&gs_l=heirloom-hp.3..0l10.1045.5344.0.5648.27.20.0.0.0.0.505.2476.0j4j3j2j0j1.10.0…0.0…1c.1.fxqwhKFQh-o
Intrade predicted every state correctly in 2008 save one.
Intrade has Obama at 67.2% chance. But that like every single recent Ohio poll is just er wrong presumably.
I predict Jews win in landslide.
source:
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y159/neoconquistador/USA.gif
Preach on Tamer. Testify.
In a November 12th interview with The Algemeiner, ADL National Chairman Abraham Foxman declared that when it comes to positions on Israel, “with the exception of Ron Paul, there is not much difference between the parties.”
http://www.ourjerusalem.com/opinion/story/which-republican-candidate-is-best-for-israel.html
Intrade predicted every state correctly in 2008 save one.
Intrade predicted Kerry. The polls predicted Reagan would lose. The polls predicted Angle would win. So did Nate Silver. Tell us how Lo Wang called it, though.
Gottfried, save it for the Dem boards. No, the polls don’t predict an 0bama win, the top lines do. They’re burying the lede this year. The polls predict a Romney win. You just have to actually read them. Tall order, I know.
Since I know you guys can’t be bothered to actually read the link:
So what happens if state polls are incorrect?
In 2008, the RealClearPolitics polling average was incorrect in two states — Indiana and North Carolina. Silver botched Indiana but correctly called North Carolina.
In 2010, it was much worse. State polling averages were wrong in Alaska (they said Joe Miller would be elected), wrong in Colorado (they said Ken Buck would be elected), and embarrassingly wrong in Nevada (they said Harry Reid would be involuntarily retired). FiveThirtyEight incorrectly forecast the winner in each of those states, perfectly reflecting the inaccurate information contained in the state polls.
Thus, of the five major state races in which polls were wrong over the last four years, Silver only got one right. I’m no baseball scout, but batting .200 when it counts won’t get you into the big leagues, let alone the All-Star game.
Silver has made a big deal this election cycle about how state polls are generally more accurate at forecasting the winner of the Electoral College and the popular vote than are national polls. That may well be true, although a Monte Carlo simulation of the final week’s worth of Florida polls in 2000 suggests otherwise.
But assuming it is true, how much actual data in the era of modern polling do we actually have? Maybe three presidential elections’ worth, going back to 2000. Or, if you want to be really generous, maybe eight if you go back to 1980.
Wall Street had exponentially more data when it incorrectly bet on the housing market than we have today when it comes to presidential election polling data. Although we pundits may think a handful of elections qualifies as a robust data set, political polling data simply pales in comparison to the wealth of data we have on the stock market, economic output, or life expectancy, going back to the example of the insurance actuary. But is the science settled on how Stock X will perform tomorrow, or what precise economic growth we’ll see next quarter, or exactly how long each of us will live? Of course not.
This takes us back to Nassim Taleb’s key insight: despite our best efforts, we humans are just not that good at predicting the future. The main assumption underlying Nate Silver’s Obama bet this year is that the state polls will be correct. Maybe they will be, even though three states were wrong in 2010, two states were wrong in 2008, one state was wrong in 2004 (WI), and a very important state in 2000 was incorrectly called by most pollsters.
I remember telling my sister not to buy the house she was looking at. This was maybe a year before the bubble burst. She bought it, and now she’s underwater and facing foreclosure. I’d been reading a lot of chatter from the “cranks” about how the housing market was going to shit, so I didn’t really press the issue. I bet she wishes I had.
I’d throw silver down the well. Count the bubbles before drowning.
I’m not so much predicting anything. I’m not trying to argue with any one or get in a pissing contest. At this point I’d be surprised if Romney won the E.C. Not shocked but certainly surprised. I base this on recent polling data in Ohio, not gut feelings or hopes. Every polling company uses different criteria for judging their collected data and every poll has Obama up a little in Ohio.
I realize Hunter, Svigor and 313Chris find these polls flawed (all of them) we’ll see Tuesday I guess. (There are more Democrats than Republicans by the way so every poll will always be to some degree +DEM) I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Romney won a slight Popular vote victory (due to a jazzed up GOP base in deep red states) and Obama eked out a Electoral College victory.
Without Ohio Romney’s road to victory becomes rough, as I’ve said a lot here he has to win ALL of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. (I give Romney Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia to start with) According to Real Clear Politics’ No Toss Ups Map Obama is ahead in all 4 NV, IA, NH, CO. So Romney pulling all 4 would be a challenge.
I suppose if I go on any gut feelings it would be that I think enough mid-western blue collar white independents and undecideds will break for Obama to give him Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and yes Ohio to.
Mid-western whites view politics differently than Southern whites (stating the obvious I suppose) a white Union worker in Michigan who votes DEM does not do so because he likes black people. In all likelihood he has a lower opinion of black people than the average GOP voter. (polls have shown this actually) Midwestern whites who vote DEM are economic populists and believers in collective bargaining. Frankly when Hunter says something like Midwestern whites vote DEM cause they like black people he is exhibiting a poor understanding of white people outside of the Deep South where he resides.
The polls are way off because they are oversampling Democrats. Florida is lost for Democrats. Look at the early voting results.
I’m not so much predicting anything. I’m not trying to argue with any one or get in a pissing contest.
I was just pointing out the error of relying on poll top lines (and models perched on top of them) to the exclusion of everything else (including poll internals, mind you). Polls are as much art as science.
I realize Hunter, Svigor and 313Chris find these polls flawed (all of them) we’ll see Tuesday I guess.
No, not all of them, just most. If you look at them, they don’t make sense. They’re tending to predict:
1. Higher turnout for 0bama in 2012 than in 2008, or at least, equal turnout.
2. Independents going for Romney as strongly in 2012 as they did for 0bama in 2008.
3. Romney getting no better turnout than McCain.
If they’re right, 0bama wins. To me, they make no sense at all and are like polls of Candyland.
Without Ohio
Yeah but, Romney’s winning in Ohio voting right now. So really, it makes more sense to talk about how 0bama can win without Ohio.
I don’t care what D+8 and D+9 polls are saying.
There is absolutely no sign of a D+8 election even in Iowa and Nevada. 60 percent of Nevada and Colorado and 40 percent of Florida has already voted. The state polls are oversampling Democrats in numbers that far exceed their actual 2012 turnout.
I mean, look at which polls favor 0bama most heavily. They’re using D+9, D+11, etc. Practically screams “warning!” Then look at where these polls come from; colleges and media companies. Media companies are bleeding money. As I’ve said here quite a few times, good polls (i.e., ones with good voter screens) are a lot more expensive than shitty polls.
Also consider the explosion of polling companies since the 80s. When you have a glut of people in a market, you tend to see a lot more shitty work (just look at porn after the 90s; now that any douchebag Jew can afford a quality video camera and a website, San Fernando is swimming with “producers” and the quality has plummeted).
I’m willing to be persuaded here, I’m just not seeing anything persuasive to make me change my mind. Not even close. Maybe I should email Nate Silver…
I predicted the state polls were flatly wrong that assumed Obama overperforming 2008 and Republicans underperforming McCain. I’ve already been vindicated on that point.
Obama does not have a D+8 or a D+9 electorate, period. End of story.
“Remember what I said about a “black swan”?
Here we go:
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/”
In engineering, there’s a reason statistical models are not used in the design process. They are only used for analysis and quality control. An analytical solution is necessary when lives are at stake. There will be an analytical solution to the Presidential problem, and it will come on Tuesday.
I’m still confident that Romney will win Michigan.
And honestly the America of 2012 is very different from the America of 1980. The America of 1980 that gave Reagan a E.C. landslide was whiter, more patriotic, more optimistic (Shining City on a Hill), more of an actual nation than the glorified Brazil that the America of 2012 is rapidly becoming.
The America of 1980 was furious that a bunch of Muslim sand niggers (people on the street actually said stuff like that then) in Iran had dozens of nearly all white American hostages and that Carter was so inept at getting them back. That provided a huge burst of Patriotic anger that served Reagan so well. The America of 2012 is a demoralized pessimistic multicultural, multiracial mish mash (polling supports this) that is sick to death of wars in the Middle East. No one cares about Benghazi except Fox News. The America of today has Presidents that say “Islam is a religion of Peace” Bush, and “Islam and America overlap” Obama. The America of 2012 is totally wussified, feminized and P.C. The America of 1980 was more of a badass white republic.
There will never be another Reagan or another Reagan moment. And 1980 is never coming back.
Nate Silver’s big CYA is as follows:
“My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-on-who-political-pundits-who-are-mostly-entertainers-2012-11#ixzz2BCRhyUit”
So, according to Silver, Obama wins if the polls are correct, and if he doesn’t win it’s because the polls were wrong.
Well, duh!
This guy’s supposed to be a genius?
“The America of 2012 is totally wussified, feminized and P.C. The America of 1980 was more of a badass white republic.”
The America of today is indeed feminized to hilarious proportions. Say nigger anywhere but the most blue collar enviro and watch the contorted reactions. Mommy professors, everywhere.
Jews really are different:
http://lasvegas.cbslocal.com/2012/11/02/las-vegas-woman-arrested-after-trying-to-vote-twice/
Swear to God, 9 times out of 10, you see these kinds of headlines and it turns out to be a Jew. They have no honor outside their tribe and the almighty dollar.
I believe we can retake this thing, but it’s going to be from the outside.
All it’s going to take is someone who is willing to have their family tortured and their heads blown off. No big deal.
The D+8 and D+9 polls which show Democrats overperforming 2008 and Republicans underperforming McCain by wide margins in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia are ludicrous. They know it too.
Nevada and Colorado have already voted. Huge percentages of Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and North Carolina have already voted. The Obama campaign already knows they don’t have a D+8 electorate that the state polls are assuming.
Some of these polls have Obama winning Colorado where he is losing early voting to Republicans out right. Nevada will also be much closer this year, but Obama will probably win there.