Ultimate 2012 Weekend Pre-Election Thread

November 3, 2012 Hunter Wallace BRA Politics 418

BRA

The floor is yours …

Update: My predictions are the same as Barone’s … no sign of D+8 electorate so far in early voting, Romney wins, and Obama makes history again by becoming America’s first one term African-American president.

Obama: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada.

Romney: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio.

Update: Here are the closing arguments: President Barack Obama: My Vision for America and Mitt Romney: My Vision for America.

About Hunter Wallace 12392 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

50 Comments

  2. All it’s going to take is someone who is willing to have their family tortured and their heads blown off. No big deal.

    Nonsense. Everybody’s always talking about how the 0’s campaign is on track to spend a billion this year, and spent a billion in 2008. That’s chicken feed. 250k men willing to give 1k a year could build a war chest like that. 250k is chicken feed.

    That no one’s willing to do it tells you America’s real problem: apathy. Until people are willing to throw rocks, they aren’t even angry yet. When they’re angry, they shake the Earth.

  3. I can’t believe the pollsters are making these wild assumptions and have not changed their methodology according to the early voting results. Very strange.

  4. What slays apathy? A man willing to give everything to change the world.

    Then again, I guess we’re too apathetic to warrant one.

  5. @Landshark

    I realize that you live in Montana, but really, could you momentarily suspend the Covingtonesque “revolution” fantasies? No one takes that stuff seriously.

  6. Hunter Wallace says:
    ‘ Nevada will also be much closer this year, but Obama will probably win there. ‘

    You are probably correct. However, I’m wondering if the comments made by casino mogul Steve Wynn are having an effect. He claims all the big monied businessmen he knows are sitting on their hands not willing to invest billions in huge projects because of O’s policies. Zero being deposed would translate into LOTS of projects, jobs, and revenues for Vegas in particular and Nevada in general.

    You would think residents of that state would be encouraged to go with Romney. Vegas has been in a huge recession.

    I’m not convinced Harry Reid can steal enough votes this time considering Wynn is esteemed by many of the locals and certainly has a great deal of influence.

    In addition, I’m thinking fellow Mormons would much prefer Mitt over shifty Harry.

  7. What about the one where I crawl out from my 5000 sq. ft. bomb shelter after Armageddon and I’m the only one left with a gun so I get to remake the political world in my own image?

  8. @Gottfried

    “Mid-western whites view politics differently that Southern whites (stating the obvious I suppose) a white union worker in Michigan who votes DEM does not do so because he likes black people. In all likelihood he has a lower opinion of black people than the average GOP voter.”

    – Thank you. You hit the nail on the head. Now if British-citizen John can manage to stop himself from parroting everything last thing Hunter presumes about Northern white voters, and read the excellent point you just made, he might actually learn something about this country which he thinks so little of.

    “(polls have shown this actually) Midwestern whites who vote DEM are economic populists and believe in collective bargaining. Frankly when Hunter says something like Midwestern whites vote DEM cause they like black people he is exhibiting a poor understanding of whites outside of the Deep South where he resides.”

    – Dude, you are my new favorite commentor on here. Although I do disagree with your assessment of how the election will go.

    “The America of 1980 was more of a badass white republic.”

    – Right on! We were glorious once, weren’t we?

  9. Mine has me crawling out of my shelter and finding myself, the Swedish bikini team, and the TCU cheerleading squad are the sole survivors. Must….. repopulate….earth!!

  10. Well, the truth is the northern economic populists are happy to align with the black agenda. Whether they personally like blacks or not is really beside the point.

  11. I understand the union vote Chris. It’s a blend of enlightened self interest and worker solidarity. Many of these voters are quite racist too.

    However, these people must know the score by now. Voting Dem empowers blacks. If an assembly line worker or welder or lathe operator is voting for a black, he’s voting for a black, knowing that the black has a bunch of niggers behind him with JDs and plush civil service sinecures. The US to some extent replaced class with race. Now race has been placed by the multicult of BRA.

  13. Jim, of course the repopulation goes without saying. It will be a yeoman’s job, but someone will have to do it.

  14. I’ll bet you Obama bombs Iran at some point if he is reelected. The FP debate telegraphed this one. Also, Biden would councel a bombing run. That decker is unhinged.

  16. You may be right John, but we’re merely playing odds here.

    I’ve got to hope the least Zionist candidate wins the job.

  18. I still haven’t heard a reasonable explanation of why the pollsters are baking such obviously inaccurate data into their results.

    I can’t believe it’s merely because they love Obama so much.

  20. That’s because Romney certainly knows by now that the D+8 to D+9 electorate in that Quinnipiac poll which has Republicans underperforming McCain is laughable.

    Early voting is already going on in Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Nevada. I’m not sure about Wisconsin and New Hampshire. The election is going on right now and they are tracking Democrat turnout.

    Romney has Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado in the bag. Obama looks like he has Nevada. The wild card there is who wins the margin in Democrat and Republican turnout.

  21. As I’ve said so many times I’m sure it is getting old by now, If Romney wins Ohio and Colorado he is the 45th President of the United States. There is no path for Obama at that point.

  23. Parrott’s Predictions

    1. Obama wins by an electoral college landslide.

    2. Romney will give an eloquent and well-received concession speech (he’s had a lot of practice with them).

    3. Media will conclude that Romney lost because he alienated the Hispanic vote.

    4. Mormons will not riot in the streets.

    5. There will be no invasion of Iran under Obama.

    6. America’s economy will enjoy an indian summer as capital flees the unraveling Eurozone.

    7. The Obama administration will mysteriously become eager to work with the GOP on comprehensive reforms of benefits and entitlements toward the end of his term, in response to increased (but private) pressure from creditors who will threaten to stop feeding the debt beast if some austerity measures aren’t taken.

    8. The end of the world in accordance with the Mayan calendar in a few weeks will not occur.

  24. In the last Gallup poll, Romney had a 5 point lead. No one who is leading in the final Gallup poll has lost since Truman vs. Dewey in 1948. That was a much closer race.

    In 2004, Bush and Kerry were tied at 49 percent in the final Gallup poll. In 6 of the last 9 elections, the incumbent has underperformed his standing in the Gallup poll.

    Bush was an exception in 2004.

  26. So, it comes down to who is right: Gallup, which has predicted the winner in every election since 1948, or Nate Silver who is averaging state polls with D+8 and D+9 samples that have already been falsified by a record level of early voting.

  27. Nationwide, 2008 was a D+7 year for Democrats. The fact that Democrats are underperforming 2008 and Republicans are overperforming 2008 discredits the assumption of a D+8 or D+9 electorate.

  28. Gottfried has the correct view of northern, traditional labour Democrats on this thread.

    In the poor white coal mining towns and “patches” around here, interspersed with the Republican good farming lands, “traditional Democrats” are predominant, who vote straight-ticket by TRADITION, not by liberal conviction! They vote in opposition to what they consider the party of the upper class that has always mistreated them and their ancestors:

  29. Hunter Wallace says:
    ‘Early voting is already going on in Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Nevada. I’m not sure about Wisconsin and New Hampshire.’

    I voted early in Wisconsin last week. First time I’ve gone that route. I know of many other Republicans who have voted early for the first time. Would seem a good indication of enthusiasm, but who knows how many of us remain to vote next Tuesday?

    I mean, just because we voted early it does not automatically follow that we are destined to have a larger turnout, does it? I’m guessing it usually is the case, but how do we know at this point without guessing?

  31. Ridiculous. Not to mention impossible at this point.

    Relative to projections. Let me re-phrase that: It was never even close and it won’t be close on election night.

  32. Solver had access to internal Obama campaign poll data didn’t he? Do you think he still does? He’s an inside trader.

  35. Alright then, my prediction is for a narrow Romney victory in Ohio, and overall. Post-hurricane turmoil will suppress turnout and increase the popular percentage for Romney a little, although the hardest-hit states such as New Jersey are so “blue” that their electoral votes will go to Obama anyway.

  37. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/us/politics/obama-and-romney-zero-in-on-battleground-states.html?pagewanted=2

    Yet Democrats portrayed the move as an act of desperation, arguing that the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the elder George Bush in 1988.

    “This is what I would describe as a Hail Mary,” said former Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat. “They have found out that it’s not likely they’ll carry Ohio, and the only way to do the electoral math is to carry Pennsylvania or a Michigan or even a Minnesota.”

    This makes no sense, no matter how many times Dems blab it. If Romney’s camp thought they’d lose Ohio, they’d fall back to Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, etc., not Minnesota and Pennsylvania, lol. If you’re losing Ohio, why would you waste resources in (what would be) big gambles in Minnesota and Pennsylvania when you can go after easier EVs in Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, etc?

    And if these gambles are so desperate, why isn’t 0bama capitalizing on his strength and moving into Arizona or other soft Republican states? Why waste resources and time in Pennsylvania and Minnesota? Let Romney waste his resources where he has no chance, right?

    I don’t know who’s worse, the Dems peddling this nonsense or the idiots who believe it.

  38. Mosin Nagant says:
    ‘In the poor white coal mining towns and “patches” around here, interspersed with the Republican good farming lands, “traditional Democrats” are predominant, who vote straight-ticket by TRADITION, not by liberal conviction! They vote in opposition to what they consider the party of the upper class that has always mistreated them and their ancestors:’

    I have met plenty of people who hold that sentiment. Facts, figures, statistics and discussions of myriads of topics always boil down to the oft repeated mantra, “The Republicans are for the rich, the Democrats for the poor.”

  40. Carl Cameron says on FOX News that Romney is elated.

    There’s this guy on BGW who’s made a few posts about Romney’s psychological profile. I don’t know if he’s right, but he seems like a smart guy. He says Romney is a strategist who isn’t good at acting confident when he isn’t (he cites examples IIRC). Total speculation on my part, but Romney might be an ENTJ on the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator, AKA the “Field Marshall” type. I’m a strategist and a planner and my type is INTJ, AKA “The Mastermind” (more introverted than extroverted, but otherwise the same score as an ENTJ). I’m not good at bluffing, either.

    Romney’s campaign has put 0bama to rout IMO. Field Marshall Romney swinging around behind 0bama’s Maginot Firewall. He’s been playing his opponent like a fiddle for a month now.

  42. John, I think you can tinker with the numbers at Real Clear Politics, but I might have that wrong. I remember someone talking about a “create your own election map” or somesuch.

  43. He must be a very good bluffer if he is bluffing.
    I’ve not seen him look like he’s in doubt. Ryan looks happy enough too.

  46. The GOP is about to lose seats in the House. They won’t be re-taking the Senate either despite the Democrats having to defend many potentially vulnerable seats and O in the White House who is about to lose according to BGW. Hunter, you always make a lot of good points. I think you’re seriously overanalyzing this one.

  50. I really can’t call it, but I guess I’ll have to man up and make a prediction, so here it goes.

    Romney: VA, FL, NC, OH, NH
    Total: 270

    Close in OH and VA, lawyers called it. Whitey “steals it”, low-grade chimping ensues.

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