White Working Class Rallies Behind Trump

National Polls

LA Times: Trump +0.7
People’s Pundit Daily: Trump +2.4
UPI/CVoter: Hillary +2 (2-way)
Boston Herald: Hillary +3
CNN/ORC: Trump +1 (2-way), Trump +2 (4-way)

Here’s the story of the race:

The CNN poll found a huge shift toward Trump by the White working class which is being offset by a shift toward Hillary among White middle class suburbanites.

NBC News/SM – Hillary +6 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)

This is a huge national poll of registered voters. It’s interesting, but all the other pollsters are shifting now to likely voters, which shows about a 5 point shift toward Trump.

Morning Consult:

Hillary +7 (Aug. 11-14)
Hillary +6 (Aug. 18-20)
Hillary +3 (Aug. 26-26)
Hillary +2 (Sept. 1-2)

Everyone now agrees this is pretty clear evidence of a tied race that has shifted toward Trump in recent weeks.

State Polls

13 Battleground States – CBS Hillary +2

North Carolina – CBS Hillary +4 (4-way)

Pennsylvania – CBS Hillary +8 (4-way)

Washington Post/Survey Monkey:

Arizona: Hillary +1
Colorado: Hillary +2
Florida: Hillary +2
Georgia: Tie
Texas: Hillary +1
Iowa: Trump +4
Maine: Hillary +6
Mississippi: Trump +2
Michigan: Hillary +2
Missouri: Trump +10
Nevada: Hillary +5
New Hampshire: Hillary +9
North Carolina: Tie
Ohio: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Hillary +4
South Carolina: Trump +7
Utah: Trump +11
Virginia: Hillary +8
Wisconsin: Hillary +2

According to The Washington Post/Survey Monkey, this is what the race looks like among registered voters at the state level. The CNN/ORC poll which came out this morning found Trump +2 (4-way) and Trump +1 (2-way) among likely voters, but Hillary +3 among registered voters. What would a 5 point shift toward Trump look like in these states? Pretty significant, I would say.

CNN also found an enthusiasm gap:

“A majority of Clinton’s supporters say they’re less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump’s backers say they’re more excited this time around (56%).”

Trump has a solid lead over Mitt Romney in 2012 among White working class voters. Hillary’s edge over Mitt Romney in 2012 with White college educated, suburban voters is also waning. If the White working class sticks with Trump while the White middle class comes home to Trump due to “the softening,” that could be decisive.

Note: See also Ben Shapiro’s comments here. It’s amazing that I am saying that.

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  1. If Trump keeps his nose clean we win. If he acts the fool we lose.

    I hope he is prepping for the debates with Roger Ailes and co, rather than “winging it”.

    • In all fairness to Trump he was just replicating his successful bigmouth strategy to failure. Now? He’s professionalizing his delivery.

      Alt-right speech sank Hillary. It was like the Berg that sank the Titanic.

    • In the Arizona immigration speech, Trump seemed to show some real enthusiasm for the details of the policy he was laying out. It was as if he’d warmed, at last, to the analyzing of a political problem, as, presumably, he has long warmed to the problem-solving that his real-estate projects must involve. That’s the key, I think: the enthusiasm. If he has that, he’ll fare well against Clinton in the debates. He won’t be relying on memorization of things he doesn’t care about.

    • I always hang up the phone on any pollster or survey. I think it’s the smart thing to do in this day of identity theft, and cyber crime.

    • I’ve conversated with Mizzou frat-grads who are a bit tepid with Trump.

      They appear to be good doushe bags ready to vote Trump but many have said that they reckon Clinton steals it.

      Ah the strange mentality of these kids.

  2. To my surprise–as it probably shouldn’t have been–Clinton appears to be going full Merkel. Saw today a TV ad at whose conclusion she looked right into the camera and said, “We can do this,” the line that’s associated with Merkel’s admission of migrants. The ad was about her (Clinton’s) supposed economic plans–for creation of jobs or whatever. In the minds of liberals, apparently, Merkel is worthy of emulation.

  3. Newt Gingrich has said that if Trump gets within 5 points of her he will win the election.

    This is because of the enthusiasm gap which drives turnout. If Trump gets the turnout – he wins. Hillary was down in Florida today – she had 200 people show up. This is a pattern which is following her everywhere.

  4. In short, Trump would be way ahead – he has succeeded in pulling in a larger share of White working class voters – if the cucks weren’t trying to sabotage him with White college educated, suburban voters.

    • Yep, Trump did what he said he would – he built the coalition that the cucks said they wanted. The coalition that Romney could never have dreamed of.

      But now we see why they could never have built it – they detest the White working class and they would rather lose than have to lower themselves to having that rabble in their coalition.

    • Trump is good at pandering and flip-flopping on every issue. I think the whole ‘cuck’ thing is going to backfire when his supporters are cuckolded by him in the end. I just watched an interview with Melissa Ethridge where she talks about meeting him at a gay wedding.
      He doesn’t mean what he says and couldn’t implement his policies that appeal to nationalists anyway. This is all an ego stroke job for him.

  5. Unless the D party has back channels to ISIS we are due for an attack, then the coughing kook won’t look so socially acceptable and with white squishies it’s all about social acceptability and their 401ks

    Maybe that is why Trump mentioned the FED fueled Obama stock market bubble

  6. If anyone has signed up for the campaign in anyway your know that Trump is running a massive internal poll of early fanatics. They keep asking about Israel too. Fuck em I replied.

  7. The Republicucks took their White middle and working-class voter base for granted, preferring to “reach out” to the coloreds and wetbacks instead. That’s why the Republican party is now being transformed into the Trump Party. Globalism and Zionism will be replaced with National Populism.

    • I doubt it. It’s more likely that American conservatives will be like the conservatives in Europe and Canada. It’s been heading in that direction for decades. Trump is just the dying gasp of suburban and rural voters.

  8. My WAG the Ds up the black mischief to 11, hoping to snag Trump in a Bull Connor moment to scare off the squishies

    But that is opportunity to point out failure as he has done

  9. Every media poll out there is weighted by pollsters who have no idea how to gauge the number of white voters who either stopped voting or never voted before that are now coming out for the first time in 2016 for trump.

    Consequently, every poll that is weighted for the white turnout in 2012 (horribly low) and the black turnout of 2012 (insanely high) will be off by a number of % points.

    As long as these worthless polls have it within a couple of points, Trump will win in a landslide.

    Only if he is down by 5 points or more come election day will we be in trouble.

  10. He’s recovering the Wallace Democrats, aka Reagan Democrats: the White folks Conservatism, Inc. despises.

  11. Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are bad new in that poll. He needs to take them, Nevada going from Intermountain West Red to a Blue Vegas Ghetto over the last 15 years is also bad.

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