The Horserace – September 14, 2016

93 Comments

1. British bookmakers give the odds 8/15 Clinton – 6/4 Trump

   • Sorry…what odds makers are you talking about? I will take some of this. Right now Clinton has a 71% chance of winning…Trump has 29%. These were yesterday figures.

     • Do you understand odds?

       • No. I understand mathematical changes of being elected. This site takes ALL polls and runs the 20,000 potential election scenarios every day. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

         • I don’t think you understand the bookies. They have to make a profit given either result. The real money being thrown around on this result by gamblers indicates a problem for Silver.

         • Ok. We have 53 days to go. The debates are going to be entertaining. In fact I am hosting a party at my place. We are going to put on the big screen and really…really watch which candidate knows more about the issues facing our country and our world. I hope you will do the same with some objectivity. And if you do…I would suggest leaving the name calling outside the room.

         • I can’t wait to see the debates.

           Trump beat the crap out of 17 GOP candidates including silver tongue Rubio and Princeton top debater Ted Cruz. He destroyed her at the Commander-in-Chief Forum.

         • Trump shouted them down with insults. I thought the debates would have been more interesting if they had handed out rubber bats and let them go at it. Sadly…they never really got to debate the big issues. Trump was playing a game and it snowballed. Now the GOP is stuck with a candidate who is grossly underqualified for the position.

         • Yeah, a candidate who is up 4 in Colorado, down 3 in Michigan, and up 1 in the latest FOX national poll since your last comment.

           A candidate who hasn’t even unloaded on Hillary yet in negative ads, wiped the floor with her at the debates, or reaped the benefits of the email scandal that Assange is about to drop.

         • I am glad you are still getting some enjoyment out of this political race. I cannot wait for the morning of September 27 when the reviews of the first debate. Or the first time the T/P campaign airs a campaign ad showing Mrs. Clinton nearly fainting…These are going to be the highlights of the T/P campaign….before it totally implodes.

         • Me either.

           Of all the candidates Trump has faced, Hillary will be the easiest to beat and caricature in the debate. ¡Jeb! was tagged as “low energy.” No one doubts that ¡Jeb! could last for three hours in a debate though.

           Hillary is the only candidate Trump has faced who might collapse or die or stage on national television.

         • Sorry buddy. I am just recovering from the same flu. This has been a tough one. I never get the flu.

     • British bookmakers are saying 3 to 1 in favor of Clinton over Trump.

       • Ok. That sounds about right. The world would be a much scarier place if someone like Trump ran the USA.

2. I wish I had put a bigger bet down now.

3. If this is a horserace, Hillary’s an old plug.

   • Time for the Glue Plant

4. Maine2 would be huge, because it gives Trump and extra path of Nev., Iowa, NH, Florida and Ohio.

   • Yep.

     He’s going to win ME2. IA + NV + NH + ME2 = President Trump without Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan.

     • He’s now up by 2 in Colorado according to a weekend Reuters/Ipsos poll.

       • Are you just making this stuff up? The latest is Clinton +4.9%.

         • This week’s polls:

           ME2 – Trump +10 (Boston Globe)
           Ohio – Trump +5 (Bloomberg)
           Florida – Trump +4 (JMC Analytics)
           Iowa – Trump +1 (RABA)
           Nevada – Trump +2 (Monmouth)
           New Hampshire – Hillary +1 (NBC)
           North Carolina – Trump +3 (Suffolk)
           Georgia – Trump +3 (NBC)
           Arizona – Trump +2 (NBC)

         • And every one of those polls have been combined and run 20,000 election scenarios. And the odds are 2:1 Clinton. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

         • Since yesterday, two more polls of Ohio have Trump +5 and +3, CNN has +4 in FL, and Monmouth has him +8 in IA.

         • You sound desperate. Please take some Prozac.

         • Desperate.

           If I was getting killed by 8 points in Iowa, the swingiest swing state, I would be desperate. Because if I was down by that much in bellweather Iowa, I would know what the map looks like elsewhere.

         • I know this is your first good news in months. I am glad you can enjoy…for now.

         • Losing Colorado? Up 3 in Michigan and Virginia? The bottom is falling out.

         • Sigh….

         • I read it on thegatewaypundit.

         • That is your news source? Seriously? Seriously?

         • Quoting the Denver Post.

         • Go to the Denver Post website and weep Carlthecuck.

         • I did. And I am not the one crying.

   • What if he won Nevada, Iowa, and Maine, but lost New Hampshire? It would be a 269 to 269 tie.

     • Then, IIRC, the House of Representatives decides where each state gets one voting block. This would likely mean Trump would win, assuming the individual state Reps. stay true to their voting block, as I assume Trump would have won more states in racking up his 269.

     • Where are you getting these numbers? Trump will struggle to even get 200.

       • We’re just posting the national and state polls as they come out each day.

         • I am sure this race will tighten as we get closer. But in the end I think Clinton will win the popular by 4.0% and ECV of 300+

         • She is down 8 points in Iowa in the Monmouth poll that just came out … the swingiest of swing states. Good luck.

         • Lets just watch. I prefer some of the aggregate models which shows a narrowing…but not enough days are remaining.

         • Down 8 points in Iowa and 5 in Ohio = Midwestern collapse.

         • Yep. all in the last two weeks. I sort of hate how this short term polling is so greatly effected by the days soundbites.

         • Down 4 in Colorado now.

         • Just keep reaching for good news blips. You sound desperate.

     • That is why Trump should (have always been) be pursuing the Faithless Elector strategy.

       In 2004 a black elector voted for John Edwards over John Kerry (misspelling the name of course), costing Kerry 1 electoral vote. 269-268-1?

       Maybe a Bernie supporter could write in Bernie?

5. Last Week:

   Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +3 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)

   Now:

   Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +1 (2-way), Tie (4-way)

6. Sorry…in aggregate Clinton still leads by 4.5pts and by more than 100 in Electoral College votes. I think Mrs. Clinton will most like receive 320 ECV’s when it is all said and done.

   • RCP average: Hillary +2.0 in 2-way, +1.8 in 4-way.

     • I just wonder how much a GOP machine is going to assist not only in key battle ground states but more importantly in key battleground counties. Like it or not, there is a machine in both parties. Which one do you think it more supportive of their candidate? Hmmmmmm

       • Let’s see:

         Trump is now leading in ME2, AZ, GA, FL, OH, NC, IA and NV. That is 266 in the Electoral College. Sure, the GOP machine is going to look at that … and balk.

         LOL

         • I cannot wait to see the first debate and then the results following. Mr. Trump will not be scripted…he will have to try and convince the US voting population that he knows what he is talking about and what he would do in the various situations. The only think we can count on from Mr. Trump…is to be Mr. Trump.

         • We’ve already seen how Trump will perform in the debates at the Commander-in-Chief Forum. Team Hillary threw a massive tantrum at Matt Lauer.

         • All I ask Mr. Trump to do is be Mr. Trump. When that happens this election is over.

         • That’s what ¡Jeb! thought too. And Ted Cruz. And Marco Rubio.

         • And none of them could go toe-to-toe with Mrs. Clinton…Now Mr. Trump is in the big leagues. I just hope before this election comes to an end you will realize this is not a reality TV game show.

         • Cruz, Chrisite and Rubio would have outdebated Hillary. Jeb would have been on an equal playing field.

         • Sorry…they all just choked.. And for the record…Cruz is a great debater…but his content was just garbage. The sooner he is sent home by the good citizens of TX the better.

   • Some recent polls off the top of my head:

     JMC Analytics: Trump +3 in Florida
     Monmouth: Trump +2 in Nevada
     Bloomberg: Trump +5 in Ohio
     NBC: Trump +3 in Georgia
     NBC: Trump +2 in Arizona
     Suffolk: Trump +3 in North Carolina
     Boston Globe: Trump +10 in Maine 2
     Trump +1 in Iowa

     If he swings that map, he needs one state: New Hampshire, where the last NBC poll had him down 1 point.

     • It’s a shame that Penn isn’t split like Maine.

   • She’s tanking. Her lead is evaporating and it’s only going to get worse.

     • It will narrow…as most elections but her lead in key battleground states will be the deciding factor. The good news is we have three debates. And one thing I know for sure is that Trump will be Trump. Clinton is an adept and knowledgeable politician. I just hope in the end people will understand this is not some reality TV game show. This election is for the most powerful human being on the planet.

       • She bombed at the Commander-in-Chief Forum. Better hope she isn’t sick on the 26th.

         • Let’s hope she is not. I think I had the same strain of flu and was laid up for a week. This woman must have ice flowing through her veins.

         • The DNC rigged their debates so that she could coast to the nomination. Bernie Sanders refused to hit her on emails. Trump will knock her out.

         • You just keep underestimating Mrs. Clinton.

         • She has been overestimated as a candidate. She is a creature of the establishment with no natural political talent.

         • Sadly, I think at times she has to much political talent.

         • She’s nowhere near as good a debater as Cruz or Rubio or Christie.

         • She is much better on the issues than all of them combined. We shall see….we shall see.

         • She comes across as the fakest, least charismatic politician since Al Gore.

           BTW, I heard Gore is hitting the campaign trail. Gore only had to beat George W. Bush, not a celebrity and longtime reality tv star.

         • Bush and the GOP machine were very effective. The problem is the Donald does not have the machine behind him in the key states and counties. Yikes.

       • Dude, the battlegrounds are now Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Your side is losing. You don’t even know it yet.

         • I know you are desperately hanging on to anything that could indicate Trump is a viable candidate for national office. Please enjoy…for now.

         • HAHAHAHAH! Looks like I was right! Have some Humble Pie.

         • I am eating humble pie. But I am also going to support our future POTUS…something that the right would NEVER have done had Mrs. Clinton won. (Actually she did with the popular vote but that does not count).

7. Eid almost over. Expect something big from the blood thirsty Muzz.

8. Breaking: Trump +2 in Nevada (Monmouth)

9. The most reassuring thing about Trump is the panic he is creating among the GOPe.

   • For us to survive the GOP must die. I wholly support the Negroes burning and crapping on the American Flag as it is NOT our flag.

10. The more the Hildabeast’s health records come out the better it is for us

11. Well, Sam Wang’s model has Clinton at an 83% chance of victory at the moment. Unlike these other outfits, Wang has called every presidential and midterm election down to the exact EV vote count on the nose since 2004. Wang’s analysis shows there is no evidence of a looming monster vote and no evidence of a mass number of new white voters about to come to the polls. Wang has pointed out correctly that 538 and the mainstream media have a financial interest in creating false drama. Ricky Vaughn, well, I love, love, love the guy, but he is posting individual polls not aggregates and promoting the rigged/skewed polls idea for which there is no credible evidence. The state polls in battle ground states have to move in the ***aggregate*** before we can uncork champagne.

    • We? What would you be celebrating?

    • The RCP average is an aggregate of polls. If memory serves, even Daily Kos has Trump favored in AZ, GA, NC, FL, IA, and OH.

      • True, but, again, Wang has a 100% accuracy record using his method. RCP does not.

        I’m just just trying to keep the good mojo going. I’ve been throwing cold water on developments for 3 months now and have been proven wrong every time so far when events turned in Trump’s favor.

        • Yep.

          Within minutes of posting the above, CNN released two new polls with Trump +4 in Ohio and Florida. He is also up 2 points in the Monmouth poll of Nevada.

        • A swing that big in NV, FL, and OH certainly was felt elsewhere.

        • Ah I see.

    • In regards to 2004, one of Wang’s measures predicted the exact Electoral count: the median state poll outcome based upon decided voters. He personally failed miserably in his own prediction and many other metrics. He predicting Kerry getting 312 Electoral Votes. It’s similar to if I picked five or six different outcomes and hit on one and then bragged “I got it right.”

      • Really? You’d think even an eternal pessimist like Lew would have picked up on that.

12. Is there a way to model Gary Johnson’s apparent support? It’s overgrown frat boys quoting Austrian Economics and men with bitchy but somewhat hot wives so far as I can tell.

13. I mean fuck those filthy Republican motherfuckers. Just when you think these sleazy bastards can’t get any worse, they side with Hillary on the deplorables comment.

    I think the best outcome for our side will actually be for Trump to win while Republicans lose the House and Senate. Republicans are going undermine Trump anyway: Better to get the bastards out now and create an inventive for future Republicans to try to win those seats back by running on a populist agenda.

14. Also, Buzzfeed is reporting that top Republicans are panicking over the prospect of Trump winning.

    “How are we going to cuck under all that glare?”