The Horserace – September 14, 2016

National Polls

LA Times – Trump +4.7
UPI/Cvoter – Trump +3
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +4.1
Reuters/Ipsos – Hillary +1 (2-way), Tie (4-way)
Economist/YouGov – Hillary +2 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)
Quinnipiac – Hillary +5 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)

State Polls

Nevada – Monmouth – Trump +2 (4-way)

Texas – Emerson – Trump +6 (4-way)

South Carolina – Trafalgar Group – Trump +15 (4-way)

Illinois – Reboot Illinois – Hillary +18 (4-way)

Kansas – SurveyUSA – Trump +12 (4-way)

Massachusetts – WBUR – Hillary +26 (4-way)

Maine – Boston Globe – Hillary +3 (4-way)

Maine 2nd Congressional District – Boston Globe – Trump +10 (4-way)

Ohio – Bloomberg – Trump +5 (2-way), Trump +5 (4-way)

Commentary

A glance at the LA Times poll this morning, not to mention the Bloomberg Ohio poll taken over the weekend, is sufficient to show Deplorables/Hillary’s Collapse is starting to have an impact on the race. That’s the earliest sign.

Note: Mike Pence tried and failed to rally Congressional Republicans over “Deplorables” … many cucks agree with Hillary that 1/2 of Republican voters really are deplorable. Also, Buzzfeed is reporting that top Republicans are panicking over the prospect of Trump winning.

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93 Comments

    • Sorry…what odds makers are you talking about? I will take some of this. Right now Clinton has a 71% chance of winning…Trump has 29%. These were yesterday figures.

          • I don’t think you understand the bookies. They have to make a profit given either result. The real money being thrown around on this result by gamblers indicates a problem for Silver.

          • Ok. We have 53 days to go. The debates are going to be entertaining. In fact I am hosting a party at my place. We are going to put on the big screen and really…really watch which candidate knows more about the issues facing our country and our world. I hope you will do the same with some objectivity. And if you do…I would suggest leaving the name calling outside the room.

          • I can’t wait to see the debates.

            Trump beat the crap out of 17 GOP candidates including silver tongue Rubio and Princeton top debater Ted Cruz. He destroyed her at the Commander-in-Chief Forum.

          • Trump shouted them down with insults. I thought the debates would have been more interesting if they had handed out rubber bats and let them go at it. Sadly…they never really got to debate the big issues. Trump was playing a game and it snowballed. Now the GOP is stuck with a candidate who is grossly underqualified for the position.

          • Yeah, a candidate who is up 4 in Colorado, down 3 in Michigan, and up 1 in the latest FOX national poll since your last comment.

            A candidate who hasn’t even unloaded on Hillary yet in negative ads, wiped the floor with her at the debates, or reaped the benefits of the email scandal that Assange is about to drop.

          • I am glad you are still getting some enjoyment out of this political race. I cannot wait for the morning of September 27 when the reviews of the first debate. Or the first time the T/P campaign airs a campaign ad showing Mrs. Clinton nearly fainting…These are going to be the highlights of the T/P campaign….before it totally implodes.

          • Me either.

            Of all the candidates Trump has faced, Hillary will be the easiest to beat and caricature in the debate. ¡Jeb! was tagged as “low energy.” No one doubts that ¡Jeb! could last for three hours in a debate though.

            Hillary is the only candidate Trump has faced who might collapse or die or stage on national television.

  1. Sorry…in aggregate Clinton still leads by 4.5pts and by more than 100 in Electoral College votes. I think Mrs. Clinton will most like receive 320 ECV’s when it is all said and done.

      • I just wonder how much a GOP machine is going to assist not only in key battle ground states but more importantly in key battleground counties. Like it or not, there is a machine in both parties. Which one do you think it more supportive of their candidate? Hmmmmmm

          • I cannot wait to see the first debate and then the results following. Mr. Trump will not be scripted…he will have to try and convince the US voting population that he knows what he is talking about and what he would do in the various situations. The only think we can count on from Mr. Trump…is to be Mr. Trump.

          • And none of them could go toe-to-toe with Mrs. Clinton…Now Mr. Trump is in the big leagues. I just hope before this election comes to an end you will realize this is not a reality TV game show.

          • Sorry…they all just choked.. And for the record…Cruz is a great debater…but his content was just garbage. The sooner he is sent home by the good citizens of TX the better.

    • Some recent polls off the top of my head:

      JMC Analytics: Trump +3 in Florida
      Monmouth: Trump +2 in Nevada
      Bloomberg: Trump +5 in Ohio
      NBC: Trump +3 in Georgia
      NBC: Trump +2 in Arizona
      Suffolk: Trump +3 in North Carolina
      Boston Globe: Trump +10 in Maine 2
      Trump +1 in Iowa

      If he swings that map, he needs one state: New Hampshire, where the last NBC poll had him down 1 point.

      • It will narrow…as most elections but her lead in key battleground states will be the deciding factor. The good news is we have three debates. And one thing I know for sure is that Trump will be Trump. Clinton is an adept and knowledgeable politician. I just hope in the end people will understand this is not some reality TV game show. This election is for the most powerful human being on the planet.

    • For us to survive the GOP must die. I wholly support the Negroes burning and crapping on the American Flag as it is NOT our flag.

  2. Well, Sam Wang’s model has Clinton at an 83% chance of victory at the moment. Unlike these other outfits, Wang has called every presidential and midterm election down to the exact EV vote count on the nose since 2004. Wang’s analysis shows there is no evidence of a looming monster vote and no evidence of a mass number of new white voters about to come to the polls. Wang has pointed out correctly that 538 and the mainstream media have a financial interest in creating false drama. Ricky Vaughn, well, I love, love, love the guy, but he is posting individual polls not aggregates and promoting the rigged/skewed polls idea for which there is no credible evidence. The state polls in battle ground states have to move in the ***aggregate*** before we can uncork champagne.

    • In regards to 2004, one of Wang’s measures predicted the exact Electoral count: the median state poll outcome based upon decided voters. He personally failed miserably in his own prediction and many other metrics. He predicting Kerry getting 312 Electoral Votes. It’s similar to if I picked five or six different outcomes and hit on one and then bragged “I got it right.”

  3. Is there a way to model Gary Johnson’s apparent support? It’s overgrown frat boys quoting Austrian Economics and men with bitchy but somewhat hot wives so far as I can tell.

  4. I mean fuck those filthy Republican motherfuckers. Just when you think these sleazy bastards can’t get any worse, they side with Hillary on the deplorables comment.

    I think the best outcome for our side will actually be for Trump to win while Republicans lose the House and Senate. Republicans are going undermine Trump anyway: Better to get the bastards out now and create an inventive for future Republicans to try to win those seats back by running on a populist agenda.

  5. Also, Buzzfeed is reporting that top Republicans are panicking over the prospect of Trump winning.

    “How are we going to cuck under all that glare?”

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