The Horserace – September 18, 2016

National Polls

LA Times: Trump +6.7
People Pundit’s Daily: Trump +5.5
Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +4
Morning Consult: Hillary +4 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)

State Polls

13 Battleground States – CBS – Tie RVs
– Last Week: Hillary +1
– Two Weeks Ago: Hillary +2

Minnesota – Star Tribune – Hillary +6 (4-way RVs)

Oklahoma – Sooner Poll – Trump +15 (3-way)

Pennsylvania – Muhlenberg College – Hillary +9 (2-way), Hillary +8 (4-way)


RCP average: Hillary +0.9 (2-way), Hillary +0.7 (4-way)


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  1. They have to show Hillary ahead. This way if they are able to effectively rig the polls and steal the election for Hillary, they will just claim – hey – she was ahead in the polls for months.

  2. Registered voters or likely voters: any info on 2004 to 2012? In terms the coefficient of accuracy?

    The model I am using is “Clinton Less than Obama, Trump More than Romney”.

  3. One favorable note, it appears Johnson is taking more from Her Highness than from Trump. The libertarian vote may well collapse the closer we get to decision time as it tends to, but if it doesn’t, it’s highly unlikely they can be talked into dropping out to clear the way for her because they’ve waited decades for their candidate to clear the 5% threshold needed to secure federal funding!

    • Hopefully, disillusioned Bernie supporters will abandon Deplorable Hillary and vote for (((Jill Stein))) instead.

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