The Horserace – September 28, 2016

National Polls

LA Times – Trump +4.1
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +2.4
UPI/Cvoter – Tie
Hillary UP 1 Point
Reuters/Ipsos – Hillary +6 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)
Hillary UP 6 Points
Google Consumer Surveys – Trump +2
Trump UP 3 Points
Morning Consult – Hillary +4 (2-way), Hillary +3 (4-way)
Hillary UP 2 and 4 Points

State Polls

Michigan – FOX 2 – Hillary +5 (4-way)

Washington – Emerson – Hillary +6 (4-way)

Nebraska – Emerson – Trump +27 (4-way)

Missouri – Remington – Trump +10 (3-way)


1.) The LA Times poll is weighted using a weekly average. It tends to lag about a week behind other polls. Over the next few days, we should see the reaction to Charlotte. A week from now, we will start to see the reaction to the first debate.

2.) Hillary won the first debate. That is pretty clear now.

3.) The impact of the first debate is inconclusive. Gravis and PPD have polls which show Hillary won the debate, but Undecideds broke toward Trump. There are other polls which suggest Undecideds broke toward Hillary. Anyway, we expected the polls to get bouncy, and whatever effect this is having now will fade.

4.) The Reuters and Morning Consult polls suggest Hillary is getting a bounce. The PPD, UPI and Google Consumer Surveys polls suggest she isn’t.

5.) It was before the debate, but wow, Hillary +6 in Washington State! +6 in Illinois. A Tie in Minnesota in the Gravis poll.

6.) Finally, take a look inside that Michigan poll. Hillary is +5 in Michigan AFTER the debate. In the poll, Michigan likely voters said she won the debate 2-to-1. It had zero impact. Trump actually gained 1 point over the last poll.

Update: The debate had no impact in Missouri either. Trump gained a point since the last survey.

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  1. At this point it looks as if Bedpan Hillary has all but conceded Ohio to Trump. North Carolina and Florida definitely look good for him as well. But I’m still worried that he can win the popular vote while losing the damn Electoral College vote, which is the one that actually matters.

  2. Since HW is teasing the results I went to the NYT they show the latest national and state.

    My quick glance seems to say Trump is doing ok where before the GOP goofs of 08 and 12 got blown out

  3. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Another sick lady of the west to lead us into oblivion (ala Merkel) or a man who can challenge the corruption, fraud and profiteering vampires selling out America to the globalist agenda. The fight is on.

  4. The alt-right is seriously polluting its message by embracing Mr. Trump so unequivocally. Do we really want a bumbling idiot who is in favor of race-mixing to be the name and face of our cause?

  5. Reuters is manipulating its poll to show Clinton lead.

    Reuters has taken some heat in recent months for “tweaking” their polling methodology seemingly every time the data reveals “inconvenient” results for Hillary (see our previous posts on the topic here and here). But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling “tweak” is truly amazing. Having run out of options for slyly “tweaking” questions and categories to sway respondents in their preferred direction, Reuters has apparnetly resorted to blatant poll tampering by altering their polling samples to include a disproportionate number of democrats.

    In their latest poll, released just two days ago, Reuters found Hillary to have a 6 point lead in a head-to-head contest with Trump. But, when you dig a little deeper you find that Reuters’ polling sample included 44% democrats and only 33% republicans. Which would be fine, of course, if it had any basis in reality. But, as The Pew Research Center points out very clearly (see table below), registered democrats represent about 33% of the electorate while republicans are 29%…a modest 4 point gap versus the 11 point advantage in the Reuters sample.

    Of course, this is significant because, as any reasonable person would expect, democrats swing toward Hillary by an overwhelming margin of 84% and, vice-versa, 78% of republicans swing toward Trump.

    Now, using Reuters’ data, Hillary supposedly has a 6-point lead over Trump. However, if we alter the sample data to reflect what Pew says is the real distribution of democrats versus republicans (i.e. 33% vs. 29%, respectively) and apply the same support levels by party affiliation it results in an 8.5% swing toward Trump who would have a 2.5% lead….very inconvenient.

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