Do you remember back in March when Fauci and Birx told Donald Trump that the United States would have 100,000 to 240,000 deaths even with mitigation?
Over the course of April, conservatives and libertarians developed a narrative that “the models were wrong” which became gospel on the Right even as 50,000 people died from COVID-19. This was based on the IHME model which lowered its forecast to 80,000 deaths and then 60,000 deaths.
The IHME model was Donald Trump’s favorite cherry picked model because it produced the most optimistic result. This was based on the key assumption “that given the magnitude of the epidemic, most states would stick to their social distancing until the end of May.” There were always different models which had different assumptions like this model which is based on machine learning. By and large, the models haven’t been wrong and we are still on track for 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
On April 2, Tucker Carlson had Alex Berenson on his show to explain why “the models were wrong.” Alex Berenson quickly become the leading flubro authority figure on the coronavirus:
Alex Berenson explained on the Steve Deace Show on April 7 (timestamp 42:46) that based on hospitalization figures we were not going to have 80,000 coronavirus deaths:
Who is this guy?
Why would anyone believe Alex Berenson knows more about COVID-19 than the top doctors and scientists in our country? Alex Berenson is a journalist who writes novels.
It is because conservatives and libertarians generally reject expertise except for that of economists like Larry Kudlow and Art Laffer. It has been stunning to sit here and watch how this has unfolded. As recently as six months ago, doctors, nurses and epidemiologists were not part of the Deep State. The entire medical system of the United States wasn’t part of the online QAnon Trump conspiracy complex.
Anthony Fauci has been the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. I’ve been posting on the internet for 20 years and in the entire time cannot remember him ever being an object of hatred and suspicion on the mainstream Right. Conservatives and libertarians now hate the guy simply because he has become the bearer of bad news.
The funny thing is, all he has done is advise the president. He told the president that 100,000 to 240,000 people were going to die from the virus even with mitigation and that prediction is coming true. Every state in the country with a Republican governor has chosen to side with renowned flubro expert Alex Berenson who was wrong about the virus and has reopened against his advice.
I guess we will see who was right.
Fauci and Birx were right about the 100,000 to 240,000 deaths with mitigation. What is going to happen when mitigation is relaxed in Trump Country heading into the summer? Are those flare ups that Fauci is worried about that could spiral out of control going to materialize?
Note: To be crystal clear, I am not an expert. I do have an above average knowledge of history though. Over 50,000 people died of coronavirus in April. 20,000 more have since died in May. I’m fairly confident that nothing like that has happened with a virus since the Spanish Flu.
Models = acceptable guesses
( no one knows what this thing is going to do.)
Models can be complete nonsense, like most of the climate ones. The GIGO principle strongly correlates with computer models. The assumptions of the person behind the model often dictates what the predictions will be, so approach any computer model with skepticism.
Models, based on a chain of uncertain assumptions.
Fraudci is pushing a vaccine for a virus. A VIRUS. There is NO such THING as a vaccine for a virus.
That’s all ya need to know about Fraudci.
Polio, influenza, measles. Some of the most common vaccines target viruses.
“conservatives and libertarians generally reject expertise except for that of economists like Larry Kudlow and Art Laffer”
You nailed that.
Scrape away all the whitewash and palaver and their economics is, ‘pile on the debt until my term is over and then wtf do i care’.
I’ve come to the conclusion that conservatives really are just extremely stupid. The stereotype is true, as stereotypes tend to be.
The curse of the white race is the plethora of people who are too smart to know they are stupid, not just conservatives either. The midwit question needs to be solved, very troubling.
But why has this been mostly a blue state problem with New York far and away the leader? Too many people clustered together with literal morons too lazy to wear a mask. America has too many people living in close quarters.
Number 2 state in Corona time has been New Jersey with cases exploding the closer folks get to New York City. Places like Newark and smaller other cities in Jersey that are close to nyc. Heavily non white as well.
It amazes me simply wearing a mask outrages people during this time. It seems to be an effective tool in reducing transmission. Why not keep it going for say, a year? Folks can still work. Obviously working from home is going to become permanent for a good amount of folks, too.
New York is getting less deaths. It recorded something like 155 deaths the other day. Compared to 600 to 800 per day they were running up, that’s a good drop.
Social distancing and wearing masks works. It would have a huge positive impact on states that don’t run up New York and New Jersey totals and would quicken up a comeback. Obviously not growing the amount of people living in America would help, too. We need less people in America, not more. Corona time agrees even if Democrats and the Chamber of Commerce disagree for ugly and selfish reasons.
Apparently the models are wrong.
https://spectator.us/swedish-models-covid-modeling/