Low prevalence in Stockholm.
There's some new Covid-19 survey data out of Sweden this week: 0.9% of those tested nationwide had an ongoing infection (that is, positive PCR test) as of April 21-24, 2.3% of those in greater Stockholm (1/n) https://t.co/MbuiNhGR7p
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
A similar survey from March 26 through April 3 found a 2.5% infection rate in the Stockholm area (2/n) https://t.co/6tgJ3JyVde
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
A similar survey from March 26 through April 3 found a 2.5% infection rate in the Stockholm area (2/n) https://t.co/6tgJ3JyVde
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
As @AdamJKucharski pointed out a couple weeks ago, the model assumed that people with Covid-19 would only test positive over a five-day period (at least, I think that's what he's saying) 4/n https://t.co/dF8V5XEkXT
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
Meanwhile, a new study out of @IcahnMountSinai finds that people sometimes test positive for SARS-CoV-2 as much as 28 days after their Covid-19 symptoms have gone away 5/n https://t.co/u8IwTILOMg
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
So how many people in the Stockholm region have or have had the coronavirus? If you just take the 1,779 deaths reported so far and assume an 0.5% infection fatality rate, you get 355,800, or 15% of the population. Which seems reasonable enough, give or take 5 percentage points
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
In other words, the assertions that Stockholm was or is nearing herd immunity seem to have been wrong. On the other hand, infections and deaths are declining. Even a pretty relaxed social distancing policy can keep Covid-19 more or less in check, it seems.
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
So was the Swedish approach right? The best argument for it always seemed to be that it avoided lockdown fatigue. But neighboring countries are now easing their lockdowns with far lower infection rates than Sweden … (8?/n; sorry for losing the plot on numbering)
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
… meaning that they may get back to truly normal(ish) life sooner than Sweden, which will presumably still be dealing with Covid-19 cases and even localized outbreaks for a while to come. Plus, a lot more people have died in Sweden. (9/n)
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
Still, I also think this means that people who freak out at photos of people sitting in parks in New York or going to the barber in Georgia are maybe overestimating how much behavior like that contributes to transmission. 10/10
— Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020
Long, long way to go to “herd immunity” in Sweden and everywhere else, assuming that real immunity exists….
the nice thing about virus detection and explaining is, nobody knows if you or your test are actually a correct interpretation of… anything.
its a guy in a white robe telling you you need to believe in “scientisms” or you are an anti_scienc-ite to be shunned, ridiculed, and ostracized.
fuck all these ppl, they know they did this to us with their “science” man knows better attitudes.
I’m not down with this satanic agenda, you cant see it ?god help you.
Its tme for you to finally admit that you were wrong Hunter and that wacko Anglin was actually right this time.
Can we trust COVID modeling?
The evidence from Sweden suggests not
https://spectator.us/swedish-models-covid-modeling/
Nearly 30,000 people have died since the Anglin-Johnson debate. So no.
Yes, and this “unquestionable” data is brought to us by those who tell us that blacks are ‘just like us’, and that gorillions of jews were ‘baked in pizza ovens’ and ‘turned into lampshades’…how buttsex is something 5 yr old children need to learn , how being a promiscuous man hating slut is liberating to women , how race&gender are social constructs or how borders in white nations are oppressing to POC..and so on and so on..
I understand this isn’t “just the flu”…but these numbers are not proof of anything because they cannot be verified and they are conflated and convoluted to say the least.
There is just as much , if not more “proof” that hospitals and doctors are juking stats to collect funding and to push the agenda of whatever is happening.
We are always ten steps behind what the true agenda of everything is and its comical that anyone would claim otherwise.
This is the part where you mock me for once daring to question the unquestionable heliocentric model of the universe…
Anyways….i hear normies talking about “herd immunity” now and what i am noticing is that people who are rabid white guilt leftists, and those who are tradcuck boomers are starting to spew the same driveling nonsense about muh freedoms and how this is all fake….
That within itself it worthy of noticing when one wonders why “this is purposefully being done”….
Stay safe.
I love all your conspiracy theories and “I’m not going to conform to your PC narrative” b.s., but, uh, the solar system *is* heliocentric. And I’m pretty sure you’re confusing geocentrism with heliocentrism. Either way, carry on, chap. Don’t let logic get in the way of a good rant.
But how do you even know that this number is correct? Do you trust the sources?
“Flatten the curve”, we were told. Curve seems to have been flattened (look at states like CA). So why is Fauci telling us not to reopen?
However, in my wanderings yesterday I actually met a European doctor who told me that according to his studies he thinks it’s going to get much worse here (USA – where he now lives btw) with eventual deaths over 1 million. He’s not a virologist, admittedly, but held a rather prestigious position in his field in Europe.
It flattened because of shut downs, retard. In absence of shut downs, it will no longer be flattened.
So keep everyone shut down, forever? Curve go up when no shut down! SHUT DOWN FOREVER!
The originally stated and only logical purpose of “flattening the curve” was to give more time for hospitals to ramp up so that they could handle the initial surge of cases. The goal was to delay the spread, but not indefinitely. That goal was accomplished. Absent a vaccine, the lock-down can only postpone the transmissions, not reduce the total number of cases at the day’s end.
It takes at least a year or more to develop a vaccine, and even then no vaccine will be perfectly “safe” or perfectly “efficacious.” Meanwhile a protracted lock-down causes more harm, as regards people’s livelihoods and other fatal health problems, than the virus does.
Absolutely none of the overpaid government bureaucrats and petty tyrants who are decreeing lockdowns and financial privation for the common folk has himself suffered loss of income.
If favored big retailers like Costco, Walgreen’s, Giant Foods, and Walmart can remain open, there is no reason why small businesses cannot also implement reasonable mitigation protocols while continuing to providing goods and services.