Peter Turchin: I Predicted 2020 Would Be a Mess For The U.S. Could That Help Prevent a Second Civil War?

Who else is listening?

The BLM and Antifa violence has gotten so bad this month that Peter Turchin is looking at his data and freaking out. He has penned an op-ed in which he says we could be on the cusp of Civil War 2:

Globe and Mail:

“Ten years ago, I predicted that 2020 would mark “a new peak of violence” in the United States and Western Europe. It may have seemed like an unusual call, at the time; Western countries had actually been enjoying more stability prior to 2010.

But even I didn’t imagine that things could be as bad as they’ve gotten.

Political polarization and “rampage killings” – what have since been redefined as “domestic terrorism” – have risen dramatically. Accelerating climate change has exacerbated crises around refugees, food security, housing and more. The COVID-19 pandemic has left half a million people dead and shuttered economies. Anti-government demonstrations and violent riots, sparked by a Minneapolis police officer’s killing of George Floyd, have swept the U.S. It’s all added up to the worst outbreak of social instability since the 1960s. …

This was our theory of how revolutions are made – in ancient Rome, medieval France and now, the modern-day U.S. It requires high levels of discontent among the masses, but also leaders – and now there are many, thanks to the abundance of intra-elite competition and conflict, perhaps expressed most clearly by President Donald Trump, who spun his personal wealth into a divisive presidency.

In the U.S., we are getting awfully close to the point where a civil war or revolution becomes probable. Such “revolutionary situations” don’t always end in an actual revolution, however: Our historical analysis indicates that in some cases, wise leaders and prosocial segments of the elites, backed by broad-based social movements, are successful in adopting the right set of reforms to turn things back to stable waters. One familiar example from U.S. history is president Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. Another is the series of political reforms adopted in Britain under the pressure of the Chartism movement, which enabled it to escape the revolutions that swept continental Europe from 1848 to 1849.”

The “Far Right” has been quiet lately.

We have made a point to STAY OUT OF IT. We have played no role whatsoever in this violent insurrection. We have encouraged the relevant authorities to enforce the law and to quell the violence. Pretty much the entire Right is patiently waiting for something to be done about the insurrection.

There are no “two sides” participating here. It is Antifa and BLM rioting against the police, laying siege to the White House, tearing down monuments, attacking federal courthouses, etc. It is unambiguously the Far Left alone that is doing this with the tacit support of the Democratic Party.

We are blessed that “two sides” ARE NOT participating at the moment because if there were violent clashes it could be much worse. This side of the political spectrum is even trying to be helpful by exercising restraint and by amplifying what Peter Turchin is saying so that the message will hopefully be delivered to our elites and they can be sensible enough to pullback from the abyss before it is too late.

Actually, we do not want the Boogaloo to happen. It is BLM and Antifa who have been out there for a solid month trying their best to kick it off. Round them up and send them to prison, restore law and order and address the root cause of the crisis by getting rid of the neoliberal system before it is too late. Raise taxes on the billionaire and millionaire class. Put a cap on excessive wealth. Find some way to redistribute concentrated wealth like FDR did in the New Deal or else there will be hell to pay.

Note: The Democratic establishment also desperately needs to seek mental health counseling for Trump Derangement Syndrome. The president tweets and does nothing except pass Jeb Bush’s milquetoast agenda.

About Hunter Wallace 12369 Articles
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  1. I’ve never been impressed with the various wave theories of business, or history. Just more semi-Marxism. That said, the past is prologue, although not determinant.

    • Communists hated wave theory so much the Soviets sent the brilliant economist Nikolai Kondratiev to the firing squad in 1938

      Aristotle was big on cycles, and from the history of Greek city-states he saw it as virtually unavoidable … he talked about how democracies and republics would be great at first, then degenerated into farce by manipulative demagogues, who sometimes would enrage and fund the mob

      The Strauss-Howe ‘Fourth Turning’ patterns seem both real and psychologically plausible, every 60-80 years there tends to be a big crisis, because by the 4th generation there is insufficient direct memory of the previous hellscape

      American Revolution – Civil War – Depression & WW2 – we are due

      World War II ended 75 years ago and is now basically a meme in cultural terms … we are due for a conflagration … Tho this time it’s Yankee-land getting the ball rolling

      Europe is turning hard-right very fast watching USA news, trying to avoid its fate … in the election in Poland last weekend, those under 30 voted 23% for the far hard right

      Even France’s Rothschild boy Macron is bowing to the right-wing winds, no statues coming down he says

  2. Race is the crucial factor this intellectual hasn’t figured into his calculations, because you must blind yourself to race if you want a career in academia.

    There has never been a stable multi-racial democracy, and there never will be. All brown countries are poor. The USA is making the transition from rich first world White country, to a poor brown third world one.

    • Good. (((Demoncracy))) is an evil damnable Godless Satanic heresy that is illegitimate and OUGHT NOT exist. You OUGHT to abolish it.

      The United Slaves of AIPAC has been Satanic apostate heretical ultra far-left progressive liberal cancer from DAY ONE, FOUNDED BY KIKE-WORSHIPPING KABBALIST FREEMASONS AND DEMON-POSSESSED CHRIST-DENYING APOSTATE JEWNITARIAN HERETICS. It embraced demonic damnable heresies such as (((anti-censorship))) and (((Bellianism))) from DAY ONE and shamelessly massacred religious confessions like the WCF to suit its Satanic kike liberal agenda. The US (((Cuckstitution))) is THE SATANIC BIBLE.


        • The wicked soul-damning heresy of Bellianism is better known to subhuman kike golem mongrels Amerimutts by the ultra-progressive ultra far-left ultra-liberal kike brainwashing propaganda term ‘freedom of conscience’. It denies the basic, essential Christian conservative reactionary right-wing value of using state power to persecute heresy, apostasy and false religion. If you deny this absolutely essential basic right-wing value you could as well be a reincarnation of (((K*rl M*rx))). Even (((Calvin))) and Beza combated Bellianism, so the Satanic masonic illegitimate fake lawless kike nation that is the US had to butcher the Westminster Confession during their Godless apostate criminal rebellion against the Lord.

          The reason you like it is because you are a devil-worshipping far left heretic coward afraid for his life like all Amerifats, there is not one Christian man among them. Cowardly heretics always defend this garbage when they are not in power to get away with their heinous crimes. You prove it also by defending the Christ-denying heretic Servetus.

          And (((Calvinism))) is heretical, yes, though I don’t think you know what it means besides ‘duh predestination’. Read )))Dr. Martin Luther(((’s Bondage of the Will to get the correct teaching on divine predestination.

          Or get to the stake along with other heretics, infidels, witches, sodomites and of course SATANIC HOOK-NOSED BLOOD-DRINKING TALMUDIC KIKES. THE DAY OF THE STAKE WILL COME.

          • …and Pelagius was also right – the misinterpreted, much-maligned (by both Papists and Protestants) and Pope-excommunicated, 5th-century Welsh monk Morwen (“Pelagius”). Castellio, Servetus, and even John Wesley (who described himself as “almost” Pelagian) follow in his footsteps.

            I oppose burning of “heretics” (who are usually not heretics, but it is done by heretics) and all other religious murder.

  3. Lool! The fact that you are giving up without putting up a fight is wonderful news for the jews who do not intend to stop until they enslave you all.

  4. Being mostly controlled opposition with NO genuine revolutionary plan or purpose, Antifa and BLM are NOT really Left. To call the Antifa and BLM protests and riots “far left” is not accurate.

    • Well the controlled opposition is certainly not conservative! The Antifa and BLM have an anti-white, far left wing ideology.

  5. The problem with this imminent revolution that we’re on the cusp of is that middle class white voices are being muted in order to “lift” the black ones. Wealth caps are great. I’m all for limiting the obscene power of these oligarchs. But they’re not talking about doing that. The wealth redistribution they’re going to make happen is the middle class smoothed out with the poor. The idealized “2 car garage” middle-to-upper-middle class white family making 150k/year will be a thing of the past so that the black single mothers with 5 kids can have a $100k/year lifestyle.
    The rich won’t be giving any significant wealth up. I promise you that. Billionaires may settle for a few billion less just for show, but they’ll expect professional middle and working middle class whites to tighten our belts as carry the load. Look at who they’re attacking right now. 60k/year cops. They’re the bad guys. Not Richie Rich. Richie Rich is starting a 100m/year foundation to combat racism so that he’ll be left alone.

    • Yeah – those $60k/cops (more like $100K+ in many cities and towns) are doing a bangup job of standing by and doing nothing while America burns.

  6. If you want to kill oligarchical financial power, end usury. Force the government to print its’ own money, and you’ll defang the evil Fed and BIS. While I’m dreaming, let’s set up a UBI fund paid for by major corporations.

  7. Couple of things. The book shops in Oxford just feponed and are pushing black authors in the windows. Much like you’d have seen Mein Kampf appear in shop windows after Kristalnacht. I’m not DR3ing here but this is noticeable coordination.

    I also noticed sonething about one of the graphs. US wellbeing is dependent on keeping blacks suppressed. The dips in those well being charts correspond to eras where blacks were allowed to integrate. Things improved when black civil rights were crushed.

  8. Hey…no worry, man. Curt Doolittle’s got all the answers. He’s got THE PLAN…it’s layered…it’s legalistic…it’s scientific…low-calorie…heart-healthy!

  9. I suggest the book Revolutionary Fascism by Erik Norling especially the section on the Italian Social Republic’s Verona Manifest to see how they dealt with corporations.

  10. All right, here is MY take on what is happening.

    Most disconcerting to people like Turchin is not Black people rioting, but White people rioting.

    Now, sorry, but most White people, if you gave them a shot of truth serum, would admit that they don’t give a flying flip about Black people, much less any other so-called “people of color.”

    Every time rioting is allowed to get out of control after a LEO contact with a Black goes awry, it is ALWAYS over some unsalvageable, unsavory individual who is a menace to his own community. Michael Brown was a violent bully. During his strong-armed robbery, it was not a White clerk he assaulted, it was a little brown Indian store owner. George Floyd was a violent, drug-addicted thug who engaged in a invading the home of a Black resident at whose pregnant belly, he pointed a gun during the robbery. He was also a dead-beat dad who had scores of bastard children running around. Rayshard Brooks had just gotten out of prison for abusing his own children.

    Of course, every time the truth comes out about these lionized, sanctified martyrs of institutional racism, there will be a bunch of apologists with horror stories of all the truly innocent Black people prior to the riot who had fallen victim to and died due to police abuse. So, why is it always someone like Brown, Brooks or George who is always the trigger that gets media attention and rioting? So any White with two working brain cells feels no sympathy for the plight of Black people and sides with the same police who oppress him due to Negro Fatigue.

    It isn’t rampaging Blacks or even rampaging Working class Whites who give those who populate elite think tanks nightmares. It is rampaging upper middle class, educated Whites who do so. They were the ones who brought down the French king and nobility during the French Revolution AKA the terror. Bankrolling the American Revolution bankrupted France and it wasn’t the lives of the already marginalized peasantry that changed that dramatically. It was those who were educated to be government officials and managers.

    All those Woke Whites burning, pillaging, and looting would have been public bureaucratic officials, corporate CEOs, upper and mid-management supervisors, and programmers if not for the corporate greed that brought in all these East Asians, Hindu Dot Indians and Affirmative Action Black and”Latinx” diversity quotas to take their jobs.

    In the meantime, many of them are up to their eyeballs in student loan debt which both sides of the aisle in Congress refuse to write off even though the Too-Big-To-Fail Banks which funded them have already been paid back numerous times through bailouts which were renamed as quantitative easing and economy stimulus packages. Yet a rose by any other name is still a rose.

    So all that these Woke Whites have to look forward to is being Star Bucks Baristas who live in their parents’ basements, because they can’t even afford to rent thanks to their student loans and dismal job prospects. They are at dead-end jobs with salaries and opportunities that make it impossible for them to get rid of those college loans and no pensions or medical benefits whatsoever.

    Do not be fooled that these Whites raising hell with BLM really give a rat’s patootie about the plight of Black people. They are astute enough to know that if they were openly protesting and marching for their own interests, they’d be put down so quickly and harshly their heads would be spinning. They are using the so-called “systemic oppression” against Blacks and Black bodies as a shield to dodge behind as they exact revenge on a system that sold them out.

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