It was actually white men, who’s 3% defection swung key states. Just like the last election, white men are the key to winning the presidency https://t.co/8VHwN6hPjQ— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 25, 2020
I had a good laugh this morning reading Robert Hampton’s latest article at Counter-Currents. Was it really affluent Whites who cost Trump the presidency? I don’t think so.
According to the Edison Research exit poll, the upper middle class swung 10 points toward Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
According to the New York Times exit poll, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 12 points. In fact, it was the only income bracket he won.
In the pivotal Rust Belt swing states, Joe Biden won more White working class voters than Hillary Clinton. In Wisconsin and Michigan, this was the decisive factor in Trump’s defeat in both states.
Among the working class and lower middle class, Joe Biden gained ground and Donald Trump lost ground in all three Rust Belt swing states:
- In Michigan in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket, there was +22 point swing toward Joe Biden. In the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was an +11 point swing toward Joe Biden. Donald Trump carried the upper middle class in Michigan by 3 points. It was the only group he won in the state after winning the working class and lower middle class in 2016.
- In Wisconsin in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket, there was a +12 point swing toward Joe Biden. In the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was a +3 point shift toward Joe Biden. The upper middle class in Wisconsin, however, swung +7 points toward Trump.
- In Pennsylvania in the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was a +10 point swing to Joe Biden. The upper middle class in Pennsylvania swung +8 points toward Joe Biden. The difference being, however, that the upper middle class was 23% of the electorate compared to the lower middle class which was a much greater 33% of the electorate.
In the Sunbelt, Donald Trump’s performance with the upper middle class was more mixed, but nowhere was it decisive including in Georgia where it mattered the most.
- In Georgia, the upper middle class shifted 16 points toward Joe Biden, but the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket also shifted 5 points toward Joe Biden, which is why he carried the state. Donald Trump underperformed with both college-educated and non-college educated Whites.
- In Virginia, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 7 points after losing it by 5 points to Hillary in 2016.
- In Florida, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by a whopping 17 points. He carried it by 16 points in the 2016 election.
- In Arizona, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 9 points, but he lost the state because Joe Biden won the $50,000 to $75,000 income bracket by 9 points. He lost Arizona because of White working class male voters in the Phoenix area. He won them by only 11 points in 2020 after winning them by 28 points in the 2016 election.
In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, Donald Trump lost the election because of White voters making under $100,000 a year. In Georgia, the upper middle class in the Atlanta suburbs played a significant role in Trump’s defeat, but Trump could have lost Georgia and been reelected.
The 2020 election was a bloodbath for Trump with Independent voters. The swing away from Trump was in the Center of the electorate with White Moderate and Independent voters.
Indies went from +7 Trump to Biden +8.
Indies went from Trump +14 to Biden +6.
Indies went from Trump +10 to Biden +8.
Indies went from Trump +10 to Biden +14.
Indies went from Trump +2 to Biden +15.
Indies went from Trump +13 to Biden +4.
Indies went from being equally split to Biden +26.
Indies went from Hillary +5 to Biden +23.
Indies went from Trump +3 to Biden +17
Indies went from +13 Trump to Biden +4
Indies went from +3 Trump to Biden +11.
Indies went from +14 Trump to Biden +6 Biden.
Indies went from +4 Trump to Biden +12.
Indies went from +11 Trump to Biden +9.
Indies went from +16 Trump to Biden +4
Indies went from +5 Trump to Biden +13.
Even if we assume that all 3,727,448 votes from Jill Stein and Gary Johnson were won by Joe Biden in 2020, he was won over 80 million votes. He has won over 14 million more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2020. Third party votes shifting to Joe Biden can’t explain this wipeout with Independents and Moderate voters. Donald Trump also won 10 million more votes. There aren’t enough Green or Libertarian voters in America to explain this result. Gary Johnson won more votes than any Libertarian in history in 2016.
What motivated these voters? Was it immigration? Was it racism?
The 2020 election was about COVID-19, the economy and jobs and health care.
The New York Times exit poll shows that anti-racist voters were significantly outnumbered by racism fatigue voters:
In 2016, the issues facing the country in the FOX News exit poll were:
Foreign Policy (13%)
If the “white supremacy” narrative was so powerful, why did blacks, Hispanics, Asians and even White women shift toward Donald Trump in the 2020 election?
Why did the cucky upper middle class which is hyper sensitive on race shift either 8 points to 10 points toward Donald Trump depending on the exit poll?
Why did Donald Trump win more conservatives and Republicans in the 2020 election than he did in the 2016 election?
I have a simple explanation:
1.) First, Trump’s diminished support with Moderate, Independent and White college-educated voters reflects the perception that he is a moron. Swing voters care less about the “optics” of Groypers on the internet than being governed by a blustering incompetent retard in a pandemic.
2.) Second, Donald Trump consolidated the Right and lost in the Center because he was elected as a moderate and governed as a conservative. This explains the big surges in Trump’s disapproval rating during the health care debate, the passing of the tax cuts and the reopening.
3.) Third, Donald Trump was losing White Independents and White Moderate voters making less than $100,000 a year and was desperately trying to replace them with conservatives and Republicans. The strategy worked in some states like Texas and Florida and failed elsewhere.
4.) Fourth, Donald Trump’s improvement with minority voters also reflects this shift in perception. He was seen as less of a nationalist and more as a conventional Republican and won more of their votes in 2020. Trump returned to a George W. Bush and John McCain level of support.
5.) Finally, Trump’s improvement with the upper middle class reflects the fact that he was winning more conservatives and Republicans. Similarly, Trump’s decline with the White working class and lower middle class reflects his diminished appeal with those voters. It is true that in many places he found more White working class voters to vote for him … conservatives. He had no appeal outside of the Right.
Donald Trump was defeated in the 2020 election with precisely the group of downscale White Independent voters that “National Populism” is supposed to appeal to. Trump won 97% of Republicans in Alabama. He lost Independent voters even in this state. That really says it all.