With the preliminary data from the 2020 CCES in hand, I am going to publish a series of three posts this week laying out my “official” version of how the faithful voted in 2020.— Ryan Burge ? (@ryanburge) March 29, 2021
Today, it’s Christians.
I am going to highlight some of the big findings here.
White evangelicals were 77% for Donald Trump in 2016. And they were 80% for him 2020.— Ryan Burge ? (@ryanburge) March 29, 2021
The overall size of white evangelicals didn’t decline significantly, either.
Biden, despite many attempts by many groups, did no better than Clinton did in 2016. pic.twitter.com/K3x035V1aQ
Here’s what happened with the Mainline between 2016 and 2020. Trump took the exact share both times.— Ryan Burge ? (@ryanburge) March 29, 2021
Biden did do better than Clinton, but that’s only because there were fewer third party voters in 2020.
Mainline are the most evenly divided faith group in America today. pic.twitter.com/UZvWkVd1ut
Here’s something that I have been mentioned for a while, but it shows up in the data again.— Ryan Burge ? (@ryanburge) March 29, 2021
Black Protestants are slowly and surely drifting toward the Republicans.
Romney got 3% in 2012.
Trump to 7% in 2016.
Trump got 9% in 2020.
This is something to keep an eye on. pic.twitter.com/rRTYFMw85F
And, finally. Because Biden was a white Catholic he probably made inroads with that group, right?— Ryan Burge ? (@ryanburge) March 29, 2021
No evidence of that here.
Biden may have done a point better, but Trump picked up as least as much.
Another example of race mattering more than religion. pic.twitter.com/OQp013n9NS
My theory is that conservatives are doing this because it works. The Democrats are slowly alienating black conservative Protestants. The Lil Nas X episode is a way to draw attention to cultural degeneration. The trans and gender fluidity stuff is very divisive even among Democrats.
Get this … there are people in this country who are *ACTUALLY* Christians and this is the sort of thing that cuts across racial lines. There are plenty of people who are not even Christians who don’t like it either. It doesn’t sit right with them. Millions of people look at this and what they see is that we have surpassed the Weimar Republic in our moral and cultural degeneration.