This is my “2016 Election in a nutshell” table pic.twitter.com/wEz1kwfqOE
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) October 20, 2019
The Democrats are still arguing over why “Latinx” voters shifted toward Trump in the 2020 election. They analyze everything in terms of identity boxes.
“Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters were apparent in preelection polling (even if the magnitude of those gains was not). In October, the New York Times entertained the theory that Hispanic men were driving this trend, as Trump appealed to their “machismo culture.” And on one level, the election results are consistent with that hypothesis: In absolute terms, Trump performed better with Latinos than Latinas.
But Equis’s polling suggests that between 2016 and 2020, Trump gained far more ground with Hispanic women:
David Shor told me that he has observed the same trend in his own data. And he argues that the concentration of Trump’s gains among Latinas is consistent with his hypothesis that “defund the police” influenced Hispanic voting behavior since, in his polling, women rank crime as a more important issue than men do. A connection this tenuous seems unlikely to persuade the unconverted. For its part, Equis offers no firm theory on why Latinas in particular shifted right. Its report also neither affirms nor rebuts the notion that the heightened salience of policing played a role in the broader shift among Hispanic voters. …”
My own personal theory is that the difference between White working class voters and most “Latinx” voters is exaggerated. The black/White divide is far greater than the Hispanic/White divide or Asian/White divide. The White working class and Hispanic working class divide is also smaller.
If you look at what White working class and Hispanic working class voters believe and want, you will find that they are motivated by many of the same issues. They are Democratic Leaning Working Class (DLWC) voters. There is a far more profound divide with Democratic elites.
What are their issue preferences in ranked order? This was from a few years ago, but the DLWCs valued health care, economy, Social Security, jobs and Medicare as their top issues. This category includes both White and Hispanic Democratic leaning working class voters. In contrast, the DILEs don’t care nearly as much about issues like the economy and jobs because they are affluent professionals. Thus, it is not surprising that Trump’s strength on the economy attracted “Latinx” voters.
I’ve seen no evidence that “Latinx” voters identify with blacks and political correctness as much as upper middle class, college-educated White liberals do. Quite the opposite.
Incumbent presidents tend to improve among non-whites during re-election campaigns. Bush made substantial gains with Latinos in 2004, as did Obama in 2012. Bush won a record 44% of the Latino vote nationally in 2004.
It is one of the reasons why an incumbent president is hard to defeat in America. Trump is the first one-term president of the 21st century, after all.
Alex Ramos, remember him.
I’ll never use “Latinx.” It’s another of those absurdist terms of the “woke” set of modern day ‘church ladies.’
I use it as a joke to illustrate how out of touch those people who are
It seems like you’re trying to say you like Mexicans now, Hunter.
There’s a lot of getting close to White Latinas – these gals want to marry Anglo White guys to move up the racial, class ladder.
I note that super patriot, cowboy hero John Wayne “the Duke” married 3 women – all Latinas. His children look and act very, very White. I think the Duke has around 23 grandchildren, I believe some of his female grandchildren formed a country music group.
We’re talking Linda Ronstadt here.
It’s horrible, horrible USA/North American world and not getting any better – particularly in big cities, academic communities where I somehow seem to get forced to be.
Most White Anglo women just don’t like us – they don’t like men. Look at Ann Coulter, her politics, her honest writing about crime, racial realities is excellent. The Best! But does she have a White Anglo husband and a family.
Nope.
She practically tore my head off at a Christmas party. Who wants to date or be married to a woman like that? Not me.
It’s this English queen thing. No other country, society has these bossy women leaders/lawyers – never in Spain or Uruguay or Africa or Asia except Madam Mao in the worst days of the Chinese cultural revolution.
And there are some full out White European women in South America – my last girlfriend was from Venezuela she was full out Spanish and German – she still gets “minority” Hispanic affirmative action, set asides. If that’s the way its going to be, might as well be your GF, your wife.
Life sucks, we have to find some ways to just survive and get by. And there comes an age, where it’s just not practical to try to move to Poland, Hungary, Ukraine – start all over, learn very hard languages that don’t even use the Latin alphabet.
Latinas use the Latin alphabet.
Learn a little Spanish, learn to understand when a pretty Latina tells you in Spanish:
“Darling I love you and can I get you a beer”.
Ha ha.
“Hispanic” as used in American politics is as much a propaganda term as it is a demographic group. There are “Hispanic-Americans” with Spanish surnames and black hair that have lived in Texas since before the Comanche. Their politics are far to the right of a “white” III% in the Montana Militia.
Then there is the Jewish/Polish/Cubano Womyn Latinx of Color that goes to NYU and feels a special connection to her fellow indigenous, Elizabeth Warren.
Then there is Miami, bienvenido!
There are the Chicano gangs in Los Angeles and MS-13, but they don’t vote.