Liz Cheney is stirring up a fuss and it really has nothing to do with Donald Trump, the “insurrection” or the 2022 midterms. The real issue here is that the Republican establishment has been repudiated by its own voters and has been demographically eclipsed within its own party.
“Rep. Liz Cheney had been arguing for months that Republicans had to face the truth about former president Donald Trump — that he had lied about the 2020 election result and bore responsibility for the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol — when the Wyoming Republican sat down at a party retreat in April to listen to a polling briefing.
The refusal to accept reality, she realized, went much deeper.
When staff from the National Republican Congressional Committee rose to explain the party’s latest polling in core battleground districts, they left out a key finding about Trump’s weakness, declining to divulge the information even when directly questioned about Trump’s support by a member of Congress, according to two people familiar with what transpired. …”
“(CNN) — The movement to replace Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney in the House Republican leadership after she voted to impeach former President Donald Trump shouldn’t come as a surprise. And the fact that her potential replacement could be the relatively moderate New York Rep. Elise Stefanik should be even less shocking.
The thing to remember about Republicanism these days is that it’s about loyalty to Trumpism – and Trumpism was never about conservatism. …
We already saw what voting to convict Trump in his first impeachment trial did to Utah Sen. Mitt Romney in his home state. While the state party did not vote to censure him, Romney does seem to be in trouble with Republicans at large in a state that has tended to have one of the most anti-Trump Republican bases. His approval rating in the 2020 CES among Utah Republicans stood at a mere 30% with a disapproval rating of 61%.
If Romney’s numbers are that bad in a place with plenty of Trump-resistant Republicans, just imagine how Republicans in a place like Wyoming.
Nationally, Cheney sported a mere 7% favorable rating with Republicans in a February Quinnipiac University poll. Though most were undecided, Republicans were split (25% to 22%) on who they wanted to have more of a role in the party going forward: Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene or Cheney. …”
Donald Trump isn’t the president anymore.
Why won’t this woman let the issue go and move on? Does that make any sense? It makes sense when you realize that these people have been reduced to a disaffected demographic rump in the party.
The “insurrection” was supposed to have discredited Trump and Trumpism. These people made their move and voted for impeachment out of the delusion that somehow the old Republican establishment would be ushered back into power with Trump out of the picture. They were sorely disappointed when it turned that the populist base of the party had only grown and had become even more radicalized.
In the 2012 election, PMCs were roughly equally distributed between the two parties. This was the last normal election of the sixth party system. The 2016 election ended in a catastrophic repudiation of mainstream conservatism and the Republican establishment. As we have explored at length, there used to be two big clusters of voters in the Republican Party (the suburban moderates and the social conservatives), but after the 2016 election there were now four big clusters. Donald Trump lured two big blocks of working class voters which used to be in the Center into the Republican Party.
Donald Trump is gone now, but his enduring legacy is that he resorted the electorate. He brought working class Democrats and Independents into the Republican Party while pushing out suburban establishment voters. PMCs have been reduced to a minority in the Republican Party which internally is much more working class than was the case 15 years ago. Working class voters of all races are more socially conservative and populist on economics. The bottom line is that the Republican electorate is composed of different people now who have different values and interests and who don’t care for True Conservatism. They don’t have any use for people like George W. Bush, Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney.
Liz Cheney and her ilk are incapable of accepting reality. They are a tiny little minority now. She might be incredibly privileged and officially part of Republican leadership, but she is hemmed in by political reality. She is establishment in name only now. The typical Trump voter has far more in common with us than Liz Cheney. She doesn’t have the juice to exercise any real power. The Republican Party has gone from a conservative coalition (2012) to a conservative-populist coalition (2016) to a conservative-populist coalition with an increasingly dominant populist wing (2021).
The party is galloping away from Liz Cheneyism. She is galloping away from the Republican base. She will be gone soon and will become just another embittered relic of the past like John Boehner.
Note: We will continue to monitor the situation and have a good laugh at the expense of the dying and flailing Republican establishment. Good riddance.