.@jonathanvswan: “If … [the Dem] Party becomes the party of the college educated, Republicans become the party of the not, do you think that’s sustainable for a progressive party?” @SenSanders: “No … And I don’t think it’s sustainable for American democracy.” #AxiosOnHBO pic.twitter.com/DQQLKxtKLX— Axios (@axios) May 10, 2021
Bernie Sanders should have an idea of where this is going:
Bernie went woke in his 2020 campaign only to be smoked by Joe Biden who was pretending to be more moderate at the time. Bernie won fewer states than in 2016.
Bernie lost to Pete Buttigieg in Iowa who also ran a close second in New Hampshire.
Elizabeth Warren crashed and burned in the 2020 Democratic Primary.
Nanny Bloomberg and Tom Steyer outright bought their way onto the 2020 campaign stage.
Democrats built on Hillary Clinton’s gains with affluent, college-educated, suburban PMCs to win states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Trump overperformed in unexpected places in 2016 with White working class voters in the Rust Belt and with Hispanics in 2020.
Corporate America and Wall Street are backing Joe Biden and the Democratic Party now.
If you separate the signal (the overall realignment of the electorate) from the noise (Trump’s inept governance), the trend is still the same and looks it is still gaining momentum.
“JONATHAN SWAN: I wonder what you think about this trend, it’s not just in America, but also in other Western countries where center-left and left parties, it’s the education divide. They’re becoming more reliant on college educated voters and they are losing no college education voters–
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: –And urban and rural as well.
SWAN: Urban and rural, forsure. Why do you think that’s happening.
SEN. SANDERS: I think if I am a working class person in this country, I’ve seen my job go to China, I’m working for $9 an hour when I used to make $20 an hour. I don’t have health care or a can’t afford prescription drugs. You’re resentful. Are we talking to those people. I think we’re beginning to see that under the last few months under Biden, but Democrats, traditionally, have been very tepid and feeble about going big.
SWAN: I think there’s a glossiness to it. A sort of San Francisco-New York gloss to the party.
SEN. SANDERS: (Imitation) I’m so smart! I’m really smart! We go to $100 dinners and who really cares about those working-class people?” (Imitation ends). I think it is fair to say, as a result of heavy duty corporate campaign contributions, the Democrat Party has drifted away from the part of FDR and even Harry Truman and being understood and perceived correctly as the working-class party.
SWAN: If that can’t be changed, if that trend of the Democrat Party becomes the party of the college educated, Republicans become the party of the not, do you think that’s sustainable for a progressive party?
SEN. SANDERS: No. And I don’t think it’s sustainable for American democracy. …”
“Political trends in the United States and Britain have mirrored one another for decades, so the Labour Party’s stunning collapse across blue-collar England in last Thursday’s local elections is a clear warning sign for President Biden and Democrats. A full analysis gives Democrats signs of hope but also shows how difficult it will be to build a durable Democratic coalition.
The headline results were a disaster for Labour leader Keir Starmer. The party lost the parliamentary constituency of Hartlepool by a whopping 23 points. The seat resides in a working-class area that Britain’s Conservative Party had never won previously and that had once been occupied by Peter Mandelson, the Labour politician who served as former prime minister Tony Blair’s spin doctor. Labour also lost 327 local councillors in England, mainly in blue-collar areas that were once Labour’s heartland. It was the British equivalent of the massive losses that Democrats suffered in blue-collar areas in the Midwest and Northeast during the Trump era.
Other results were more positive. Labour gained support in some wealthier areas of the country that opposed Brexit, an analogue to Democratic gains in wealthier U.S. suburbs. Most telling here was Labour’s defeat of incumbent Conservative mayors in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and West England, two regions that had voted to remain in the European Union or were divided on the question in the 2016 referendum. Combined with Tory losses to minor parties in other wealthy areas that voted “Remain,” these results suggest that Democrats may hold onto their suburban gains even after Donald Trump’s departure from the White House. …”
“I didn’t believe it at first. It has taken a long time to absorb and understand it. It seems so contrary to everything we have always known about politics in Britain that it requires a big adjustment of our world view. The link between class and voting has been reversed. People are now more likely to vote Tory if they are working class than if they are middle class – and the other way round for Labour.
It was not until the elections last week that this fact suddenly became a staple of political analysis. But when Hartlepool, a name that might as well mean “Always Labour” in ancient Norse, fell to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, everyone knew that something was up. And when Labour gained Chipping Norton in the local council elections on the same day, and the mayoralties of the West of England and of Cambridgeshire and
Peterborough, we knew that the world had been turned upside down. …”
The Democratic Party is two parties.
It is the party of the Democratic Independent Liberal Elites (DILEs) or the affluent, college-educated PMCs (and their downwardly mobile woke brats) who are concentrated in large metro areas and college towns and who have cosmopolitan, modernist and antiracist values.
It is also the party of the Democrat Leaning Working Class (DLWCs) or the multiracial working class. The reason that the Democrats went insane over the Trump presidency is because he took such a large bite out of the DLWC vote and beat Hillary Clinton by winning nearly 25% of those voters. This is what enabled Trump to do magical things for a Republican in 2016 like carry the Rust Belt.
The apocalyptic scenario for Democrats is a Republican candidate who is able to win a much larger share of the DLWC vote than Trump and who splits the party down the middle dividing the PMCs from the working class. This is becoming increasingly plausible as the Democrats are transforming into the party of Nicolle Wallace, Brian Stelter and Pete Buttigieg. As the Democrats evolve into what used to be the old Republican Party, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and John McCain are their new heroes.
The reason that this hasn’t already happened is largely due to the Republicans themselves. The Republican Congress pushed Paul Ryan’s unpopular agenda and shelved the MAGA agenda. Donald Trump himself had little interest in doing anything beyond tweeting. Republican judges deliver victories for the Left like on gay marriage. The GOP has relentlessly fought against us and have refused to champion popular grievances instead preferring to fight to the death over things like the $600 stimulus check. Trump had Jared Kushner in charge of his 2020 campaign. The Tories also support the NHS and there is no equivalent of the SNP in the United States. The Republicans are accustomed to groveling and submitting to the media even when something like 94% of their own voters hate the media. The Republicans were so drunk on free market ideology that they stood idly by while they were wiped out and censored on social media. They have preferred to champion and defend political correctness which is hated by their voters. Frank Luntz tells them what will work. The contempt here for the GOP is so strong that most of our readers have convinced themselves that voting is futile even though most people share the same views on the key issues. Voting for the GOP only empowers them to do things no one wants or cares about.
Note: Republicans are most useful when they are occupying space, but they are not in power. They can at least say “no” to the Democrats and block their agenda. That’s all they are really good for these days. They lack a popular agenda that is needed to have a governing majority.