The Democrats are dead in the water.
It is not exactly news around here. We saw how the 2021 elections went for them. At this point, the Democrats have virtually no chance of holding the House in the 2022 midterms. They are going to have a bad year. The real question is how shattering will their defeat be in the 2022 midterms. How large will the GOP majority be in the House? Will the GOP take the Senate too?
Take a look at this.
“Republican congressional candidates currently hold their largest lead in midterm election vote preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years, underscoring profound challenges for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress next year.
While a year is a lifetime in politics, the Democratic Party’s difficulties are deep; they include soaring economic discontent, a president who’s fallen 12 percentage points underwater in job approval and a broad sense that the party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans — 62% say so. …”
This is the ABC News/Washington Post poll.
If memory serves, this has been for the longest time one of the worst polls for Trump and Republicans. It had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points on the eve of the 2020 election. This poll had Joe Biden winning Pennsylvania by 7 points. Normally, I look at the Washington Post poll as a measuring stick of “the optimistic case for Democrats.” It has the GOP up by 10 points heading into the 2022 midterms.
Here are some other highlights:
- Joe Biden is down to 39% on the economy
- Joe Biden is down to 47% on COVID and is two points underwater even with the vaccine mandate. This is especially damaging given the intensity of the opposition to his COVID policies
- Joe Biden is down to 35% with Independents
- Joe Biden is down to 49% support with “Latinx” voters
- Joe Biden is down to 33% approval in key swing states with contested Senate races – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
- Independents favor the GOP in 2022, 50-32%
- Suburban voters favor the GOP in 2022, 54-39%
- 63% of Independents support the infrastructure bill which passed Congress and 58% support the “human infrastructure” bill, but only 35% of Independents support Joe Biden
In short, Democrats have lost the Center.
Harry Enten, another one of their top Jews, has some more bad news for their Democrats.
“(CNN) – President Joe Biden’s approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and Democrats gaining ground by the midterms in 2022 are small. …
Just one, Donald Trump in 2017, picked up appreciable support (i.e. more than 5 points) in the year before the midterm. He gained about 9 points from a nearly -20 net approval rating to about -10 points. …
Still, Biden shouldn’t be looking to Trump for too much inspiration. Beyond the fact that Trump was still unpopular come the 2018 midterms, Trump had an approval rating of 80% among Republicans at this time. Biden is in the 90s with Democrats. All Trump needed to do was coalesce his base to be in a better position. Biden’s already done that.
The other worrisome sign for Democrats is the generic congressional ballot. The two parties are basically tied on it now in an average of polls. …”
As bad as these numbers are for Joe Biden and the Democrats, it almost always gets worse from here for the party in power. Trump was an exception. He improved his numbers heading into the 2018 midterms. He did this by becoming more popular with the Republican base by delivering on tax cuts and Kavanaugh. The economy was also good for Trump heading into the 2018 midterms.
The Democrats already have their base. Joe Biden isn’t going to make his base any happier with him. It is worth noting that nearly half of them already don’t even want him to run for president again in 2024. The swing voters who made Joe Biden president and who gave the Democrats their majority in Congress have decisively turned on them. Maybe COVID will ease, gas prices will come down and crime, illegal immigration and inflation will abate. Maybe Joe Biden will get a SCOTUS appointment through before Democrats lose the Senate. Maybe none of these things happen though and Democrats haven’t hit the bottom yet – their base could easily become demoralized – which is the more likely scenario.
Note: It goes without saying that I don’t expect the Republicans to do anything with another congressional majority. I’m not siding with them or cheering them on. I’m just observing the demise of the Democrats from the sidelines. They have crashed and burned with a trifecta. It is what it is.