Let’s Go, Brandon.
This would be consistent with a 10 point GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot and winning the suburbs, 54-39.
“PHILADELPHIA — The Philadelphia suburbs buried Donald Trump in 2020.
One year later, after enabling Joe Biden to flip one of the nation’s most critical swing states, their lurch in the opposite direction is a cause for alarm among Democrats. …
From April to October, Biden’s approval rating fell 14 points among suburban voters in Pennsylvania, according to surveys by Morning Consult. Biden’s favorability saw similar drops in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida.
Biden’s suburban fade is no small matter. The big margins produced by the suburban Philadelphia counties of Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Chester — where Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton — allowed him to win the state back from Trump in 2020. …”
In the 2016 election, Trump won Independent voters, splintered the GOP coalition, drove up turnout in rural areas and brought two huge blocs of voters from the Center into the GOP.
In the 2018 election, Independent and suburban voters fled from the GOP, Trump improved his standing with traditional Republican voters and held his base which wasn’t excited about Paul Ryan’s agenda. The GOP lost the House while holding the Senate.
In the 2020 election, Independent and suburban voters continued to flee from the GOP, Trump continued to improve his standing with traditional Republican voters, held his base and drove up rural turnout. Trump lost the election, but the GOP gained in the House. They lost the Senate later after Trump fraud pilled his voters in Georgia who didn’t show up for Perdue and Loeffler.
In the 2021 elections, Independent and suburban voters fled from the Democrats and swung back toward the GOP which not only held Trump’s base, but drove up rural turnout even further.
In the 2022 elections, it seems pretty clear that Independent and suburban voters are swinging hard toward the GOP. Trump’s angry base is coming out for the GOP and rural turnout and margins have gone way up beyond their 2020 level.
Note: As we said at the time, this strategy was a total failure in 2020. It wasn’t fraud or a conspiracy. Trump simply lost White Independent voters in Pennsylvania and every swing state in the country because he alienated them. They’ve swung back to the GOP because they are angry now with Joe Biden. Rest assured, the Jared Kushner strategy of focusing on Based Blacks, not White Independents, will be their strategy in the 2024 because these people literally never learn anything from experience. The GOP has been having more success with “Latinx” voters because their top concerns are the economy and healthcare which aren’t different from MAGA voters. In contrast, blacks have a much stronger racial identity.