Poll: Republicans Have a 13 Point Edge In The Generic Congressional Ballot

I apologize for being so fascinated by these polls.

Do you know any sports fans in your life? In my youth, I majored in political science and got my degree because I was interested in this stuff. I’m genuinely curious to see what an R+13 electorate would look like in real life when something like D+4 is needed just to break even.

Sure, it is totally meaningless because the policies are sold to the donors and Republican politicians are so corrupt and inept, but it does reflect a repudiation of Democrats that hasn’t been seen in my lifetime. Even if vooting doesn’t matter, the sentiment that people who voot are feeling is real.

Rasmussen Reports:

“With the midterms elections now less than a year away, Republicans have a double-digit lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 51% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 38% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure.

The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a wide advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% would vote Republican and 26% would vote Democrats, with another 17% undecided. …”

I know it is Rasmussen.

USA Today/Suffolk found an R+8 electorate and ABC News/Washington Post found a R+10 electorate though. This isn’t outside the realm of possibility. As Henry Olsen pointed out the other day, the margin shift toward the GOP in the 2021 elections was 12.1 in Virginia and 13.3 in New Jersey.

Note: The Tea Party backlash of 2010 against Obama got up to R+3 and that was before education polarization took its toll in the last decade.

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  1. Lots of talk about generic red vs generic blue. Remember that there are built-in headwinds against red, meaning that they will do better than the generic ballot polling suggests (which is already showing really well for team red), for three structural reasons:

    (1) The Republican Party as a unitary national brand is historically (in the sense of the time span of my conscious lifetime) and still to this day less popular than most of its individual candidates and some of its known policies, or, to put it another way, the inverse of synergy, or yet another way, the whole is worse than the sum of its parts. Meaning a given R candidate will more often than not do better than the R party generically.

    (2) Starting in 2014 and continuing to today, there has been a consistent Shy Tory Effect, in that the red team tends to better on election day than the polling suggests. It corresponds with and I believe has causation with The Great Awokening.

    (3) Especially in House races, because so much of the blue team is clumped up in tight geographical spaces, (and no kind of gerrymandering or anti-gerrymandering can affect that), so much of the blue team’s Congressional vote gets “wasted” or “sunk costed.” Meaning that if red and blue teams have the same total number of raw votes for Congressional candidates, it will mean a red majority. In fact, it takes a wide blue team generic win for the blue team to take the House; the 2018 midterms, e.g. was a 8.6% Democrat win generically, and it took that for the blue team to flip the House.

    But, like you, the open question is whether what we know will happen next year will actually result in anything. Three words: Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

    • “(3) Especially in House races, because so much of the blue team is clumped up in tight geographical spaces”

      That’s why the Democrat Machine in Chicago is exporting the ghetto down what is colloquially known as “The I-57 Amtrak Crime Corridor” to all these small, very low cost of living downstate communities where their welfare check and section 8 voucher go a long way. As a result, formerly decent places are experiencing a crime wave. Danville has some of the worst projects in the state and the former Chanute Air Force Base in Rantoul attracted the worst when they tore down Cabrini Green and The Robert Taylor Projects. The city fathers have a placeholder mayor in place in Champaign as they “hope” to quietly run the blacks out to Urbana, and preferably Danville and Decatur and want to turn Champaign into another Ann Arbor (a pricey piece of seemingly “Massachusetts” set down in the middle of low class Michigan.) With all the ‘hood shootings going on in Champaign Urbana since the George Floyd color coded revolution I wonder how successful this project will turn out. They did just nab a little 18 year old entrepreneurial local ‘hood rat with a friggin’ ghost gun assembly line in his bedroom. Some of the older blacks at work were talking about it and thought he was responsible for the sudden proliferation of guns and local shootings. They have mellowed out with age and are not really down with all the violence, but don’t seem to get the connection between their voting patterns and the kind of society the democrats they enable create. Jimmy John is selling his 2 million dollar mansion in Champaign, probably sees the writing on the wall and is getting away from the crime wave. The good thing is most of the ‘hood rats around here are afraid to go to all the small towns outside the city, they are seriously convinced that “the klan” is waiting for them there and go on endlessly about how Villa Grove used to be a sundown town. I wish they’d all just pack up and move back to Chicago, then kick the 5 county Chicagoland area out of Illinois and turn it back into an old Frontier Territory like in the Deadwood-Custer era. The place is as lawless as the old west, if not more, time to remove these big blue globalist colonies on US soil from being parts of states and stop the creeps living there from corrupting the electoral process.

      • I know there’s a theory that AFFH et al. have as part of their design to get rid of the blue team’s population clumping problem. The problem with that theory is that the beneficiaries of AFFH are the kind of black people who do the least voting relative to black people. AFFH beneficiaries tend to be young single black women with children, while voting among blacks is mostly an elderly woman thing. And elderly black women are not being AFFHed out of cities. It’s because the goal is to engineer a long term decline in the black population in major core cities to make it safe for white liberal gentrification, and the way to do that is to get the fertile women out. They, the children they already have, and the children they’ll have subsequently, will be in AFFH victimized areas, and the men who want to get with such women, who also tend to commit the most crime, will follow them there for, well, you know what they want anatomically. Meanwhile, the blacks that will remain in cities are elderly. They will remain as “but my best friends are black” psychological tokens for the white liberal gentrifiers, to keep them thinking that the efforts to make those cities safe for them and what they’re doing hasn’t pushed out a lot of the black population, and to point to the old blacks around them as “proof” that their neighborhoods are still diverse. And since old blacks don’t do that much crime, it will all come with that side benefit.

  2. The Republicans could have a +1,000 point advantage over the Democrats and it wouldn’t matter, they would still sell out their loyal voters. Like a dog stealing food, the Republicans just can’t help themselves. No offense meant to dogs here, they have many fine qualities lacking in Republican politicians.

  3. Don’t get too happy, the Republicans are going to ditch Christians in favor of the queers.
    Out loud and proud and in your face with attitude, that is the new super flamboyant GOP.

  4. Respectfully, more coverage of the ongoing legal trials would have been greatly appreciated.

    • I’m waiting to write about the Charlottesville trial until it is over.

      As for Rittenhouse, I expected to write something about it last night when I got home from work. I assumed the verdict would be in, but to the surprise of everyone the jury is still out

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