Henry Olsen: Margin Shifts

Let’s Go, Brandon.

Henry Olsen lays out what a 12 point margin shift would look like playing out on a national scale in the 2022 and 2024 elections. Virginia is light red and New Jersey is light blue. You can probably imagine what the rest of the country is like right now based on that alone.

The Washington Post:

“The shift against Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey in last Tuesday’s elections has shocked the left. But if anything, Democrats understate the widespread danger their party faces.

To understand the magnitude of last week’s electoral earthquake, one must grasp the concept of “margin shift.” This is the difference between one party’s winning margin in one election vs. the same margin in the next election. This measures the change in voter attitudes and can be used to assesses what might happen in other contests if the same shift were to occur.

Tuesday was an utter disaster for Democrats by that assessment. Joe Biden won Virginia by 10.1 points in 2020 and carried New Jersey by 15.9 points. Although some votes are still being tallied, the margin shift for the GOP is 12.1 points in Virginia and 13.3 pointsin New Jersey. Moreover, GOP candidates for the legislatures in each state obtained nearly identical shifts. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman estimates that New Jersey’s GOP state Assembly candidates obtained a median 10.8-point margin shift while their Virginia counterparts received a median 12.3-point shift. This shows how much Tuesday was a rejection of a party rather than a verdict on individual candidates.

The margin shift was similar or higher in Pennsylvania and New York. Republicans recaptured four countywide partisan offices in Bucks County, Pa., that Democrats had seized in their 2017 wave, obtaining a margin shift of between 10 and 11 pointscompared with Biden’s 2020 lead. New York Republicans likely recaptured the position of Nassau County executive and won the Suffolk County district attorney’s office with marginshifts of 14 and 14.6 points, respectively. And in the New York mayoral race, Republican Curtis Sliwa received margin shifts of 26.5 points in Staten Island and 23.1 points in Queens. Republican City Council candidates also gained, winning or leading in seven of the council’s 51 districts.

These margins would shatter Democratic congressional majorities if they recur in next year’s midterms. Wasserman estimates that Republicans would gain between 44 House seats on the New Jersey State Assembly swing and 51 on the Virginia House of Delegates shift. Swings on the scale of the New Jersey’s gubernatorial race and the Long Island local offices would likely push GOP gains close to the record 63 seats they picked up in the 2010 midterms. Any of these results, added to their current 213 seats, would give the GOP more House seats than at any time since 1928. …

Republicans would also be favored to gain massively in the Senate. A 10-point margin shift would likely cost Democrats four seats — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire — while denying them shots to pick up in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. A 12-point shift would put Colorado in play for the GOP, while New York-style shifts could place seats in Oregon and Washington at risk. Imagine Mitch McConnell as majority leader with 55 seats or more at his disposal. …”

They’re a lot more excited about this than us.

This is the David Shor nightmare scenario playing out when the Democrat “strategy” is getting them clobbered on their most favorable terrain in states like Virginia and Colorado. All it took was to give the Democrats the opportunity to pull the pin on the grenade and have the national stage all to themselves to implement their insane agenda and self destruct like this.

So, it is easy to imagine the GOP winning about 60 House seats, holding their Senate seats, picking up the 4 toss up Senate seats and perhaps a few more like the Colorado seat in the 2022 midterms, not to mention all the governorships and state legislature seats that will fall. It will be a bloodbath like the 2010 Tea Party wave. The Senate map in 2024 will also be much more favorable for Republicans.

The crowning achievement will be the comeback of Blumpf in 2024 with a Trumpified supermajority in Congress. Assuming Joe Biden sees the writing on the wall and chooses not to run for reelection, the GOP could get up to 60 Senate seats with Kamala Harris as the nominee.

Note: Imagine what it would be like for the Democrats to be that deep in the minority WITHOUT the filibuster.

About Hunter Wallace 12367 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. The only way I’ll vote again period is if the Republicans or democrats focus on White issues and pander and grovel to our every whims like they have been doing to the blacks and other minority groups for the last 50+ years.

    • Why settle for pandering? It’s obvious republicans will pander to Whites with dog whistles, like they have been doing for decades. Without tangible results, you’re just being duped into voting more handouts for anti-White military contractors, tax cuts for anti-White billionaires, and cheaper labor for anti-White business owners.

  2. It’s too bad that there isn’t a party for whites. There wouldn’t be any pandering for amnesty, nonwhite votes, etc.

    • “we get to attack Iran now”

      We are already doing it, all the time. How about that brazen act of piracy on the high seas last week: The U.S. Navy began to steal an oil tanker full of oil n the Strait of Hormuz, like it succeeded in stealing a North Korean coal barge full of coal in the South China Sea, and other vessels here and there. It is called “rules-based international order” which means the U.S. IS the law and makes all the rules. Money talks and everything else walks.

      • No act committed during and after WWII by the jewish controlled nations that claimed victory over the Axis powers has ever been held responsible for their numerous war crimes and violations of international law.

        There will never be true justice, until the reins of power are taken away from international jewry’s elite.

  3. “All it took was to give the Democrats the opportunity to pull the pin on the grenade and have the national stage all to themselves to implement their insane agenda and self destruct”:

    Some voted for Kamala-Biden (I did not) because they believed, or hoped, that their agenda included: universal free health care and public education; ending all the wars and shrinking the military; expanding social services msssively; repairing or replacing public roads, bridges, rails, water supplies and other public infrastructiure; and redistributing wealth (including land) massively from the elite to the commons. Such an agenda was implied but it was never intended. Such an agenda would not have been “insane.” It would be brilliant, and if they had even tried to implement it, they would be LOVED now by the vast majority.

    In reality however, the Democrats including the fake-left Squad have only a fake “left,” neoliberal agenda. Now the coin of propaganda flips, giving the Republicans their turn to implement the same plutocratic agenda dressed up in slightly different words and a different style tailored to a slightly different audience. Keep watching the different trees and not see the imperial forest.

    • Culture War>>>>>>Economic BS.

      I find it pathetic how some WNs actually think the Democrats have any intention whatsoever of fixing the infrastructure or giving jobs to White men. Obama’s 2009 stimulus bill – which precedes the whole era of Wokeness – specifically made sure the infrastructure grants didn’t go to companies who hired too many White men.

      Democrats have no more intent of fixing infrastructure than Republicans do of banning abortion. If Pro-Whites are going to (justifiably) mock Boomer Cons for falling for the pro-life racket, then WNs who vote Democrat because “Muh Infrastructure” are equally worthy of ridicule.

      BTW, and I know I’m an outlier here since I was the resident Paul Ryan during the asinine Covid lockdowns, but even if the Democrat Party did literally everything that made the White Working Class used to vote for them – infrastructure spending, minimum wage increase, public education funding, etc – I’d still refuse to vote Democrat on account of the fact they want to take my steak away. No one is taking away my right to eat steak and burgers when I get home from work. I’ll drive over every damn pot hole in the world before I’m reduced to eating serf gruel made out of bugs like the Democrats and their disgusting base of College Educated White body snatchers want to make me do.

  4. The Republicans could hold all 535 seats in Congress, all 50 governors’ offices and state legislatures, the Presidency and have nominated all nine Supreme court justices and they would still sell out to the Sheldon Adelson types and wreck the country. The Republicans are hopeless, there is no salvation there, only betrayal for the Republican voters while the Republican oligarchs get their wars, immigration and tax cuts.

    Trump 2024 means another “Platinum Plan” for Platinum Americans, another war for Our Greatest Ally and brand new, 100 yards in total of border fence across a 2,500 mile border.

    • Only the rich can afford to run for office, yet…with all of their millions, they still sell out for more.
      How do these people sleep at night? Well, they think they are good people, because they give money to nonwhite charities, encourage “immigration”, adopt other race babies, and hate whites.

    • If Trump somehow managed to get back in the WH he would be the exact same arrogant, narcissistic buffoon he was the first time around.

    • Absolutely true. The D-jersey’s carry the Devil’s flag openly but the R-jerseys “move amongst those within the gate freely, their sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government, itself” (with apologies to Cicero). Blumpf is truly the ultimate Republican – the grift that keeps on grifting. They real reason the NRO types like the Cuckface française and JEB (please clap) despise him is because he is so very good at the con-job. They are pathetic Baghdad Bobs by comparison.

    • Agree. Republicans rejoicing in this pyrrhic “victory” is almost too much to take. At some point we will vote in our own self-interests. The Republican Party is actively recruiting everyone except for us.

      It is embarrassing to support a party that pretends to represent White interests. I voted that way for decades. Never felt more free than sitting out the 2020 election.

      Trump fans can see me in the river under Rural Route K. Because this the attention we have from republicans in a deep red state. None.

      Infrastructure brings us broadband. Why don’t they want us to have it?

    • @12AX7

      Yep, even if the Republicans won everything, ZOG will still rule. Haven’t people got it yet, politicians are the worst scum in the entire universe. Shameless venal treacherous parasites. I long for the day when politicos of any stripe are hanging, en masse, from lampposts.

  5. Do you remember when you were a kid and getting on one of those A frame style swing sets and swinging as hard and high as you could? The one we had in my backward was made of metal, and my dad had poured a little concrete around the 4 posts, but we swung on that set so hard that the concrete managed to dislodge from the dirt hole it was poured into, and the entire thing would rock a bit once you got the momentum going.

    The point of this mental model is that adding energy to and causing wild swings in any kind of normally stable system eventually rips the thing apart, or in the case of a swing set, perhaps topples it over.

    My point is that even if the shit-tier joke that masquerades as “the mainstream right” starts to gain a strong swing in momentum this go-round, and even if the politicians squander it, the fact is that the left views ANY right wing opposition as pure fascism, and that alone destabilizes everything further. Most of the energy being pumped into this death spiral is coming from the mania on the left. But it’s enough energy to fuel the pendulum swinging violently in both directions. Imagine that childhood fantasy (or fear) where you swing so hard that you flip over the other side of the swing set. This is the kind of chaos that this system is being fed by.

    I have completely changed my mind on the negative consequence of “voting harder”. If voting harder ushers in another full house-senate-executive swing to the “right” again, which in turn creates another round of mass hysteria on the left, the sheer inertia of these swings is bound to topple this country once and for all.

    At this point I’m no longer worried about outcomes that I can control.
    All I want to do is see all of these people who hate you and me standing in bread lines and begging for food. I want karma.

    • Politics can be fake and gay because at the end of the day the policy agenda is sold to the donors, but the emotions around it among ordinary people are entirely real. That’s why we pay attention to it.

  6. Republicans will not lift a finger, should an executive order amnesty for illegals be given by the biden admin. They want the cheap labor and the dancing maids. Machete-wielding non whites are natural republicans who love and worship abe lincoln. It’s racist to think otherwise.

  7. A trump victory in 2024 would shatter this jewish plutocracy apart like Humpity Dumpty.

    Let’s go, Brandon.

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