Let’s Go, Brandon.
Henry Olsen lays out what a 12 point margin shift would look like playing out on a national scale in the 2022 and 2024 elections. Virginia is light red and New Jersey is light blue. You can probably imagine what the rest of the country is like right now based on that alone.
“The shift against Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey in last Tuesday’s elections has shocked the left. But if anything, Democrats understate the widespread danger their party faces.
To understand the magnitude of last week’s electoral earthquake, one must grasp the concept of “margin shift.” This is the difference between one party’s winning margin in one election vs. the same margin in the next election. This measures the change in voter attitudes and can be used to assesses what might happen in other contests if the same shift were to occur.
Tuesday was an utter disaster for Democrats by that assessment. Joe Biden won Virginia by 10.1 points in 2020 and carried New Jersey by 15.9 points. Although some votes are still being tallied, the margin shift for the GOP is 12.1 points in Virginia and 13.3 pointsin New Jersey. Moreover, GOP candidates for the legislatures in each state obtained nearly identical shifts. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman estimates that New Jersey’s GOP state Assembly candidates obtained a median 10.8-point margin shift while their Virginia counterparts received a median 12.3-point shift. This shows how much Tuesday was a rejection of a party rather than a verdict on individual candidates.
The margin shift was similar or higher in Pennsylvania and New York. Republicans recaptured four countywide partisan offices in Bucks County, Pa., that Democrats had seized in their 2017 wave, obtaining a margin shift of between 10 and 11 pointscompared with Biden’s 2020 lead. New York Republicans likely recaptured the position of Nassau County executive and won the Suffolk County district attorney’s office with marginshifts of 14 and 14.6 points, respectively. And in the New York mayoral race, Republican Curtis Sliwa received margin shifts of 26.5 points in Staten Island and 23.1 points in Queens. Republican City Council candidates also gained, winning or leading in seven of the council’s 51 districts.
These margins would shatter Democratic congressional majorities if they recur in next year’s midterms. Wasserman estimates that Republicans would gain between 44 House seats on the New Jersey State Assembly swing and 51 on the Virginia House of Delegates shift. Swings on the scale of the New Jersey’s gubernatorial race and the Long Island local offices would likely push GOP gains close to the record 63 seats they picked up in the 2010 midterms. Any of these results, added to their current 213 seats, would give the GOP more House seats than at any time since 1928. …
Republicans would also be favored to gain massively in the Senate. A 10-point margin shift would likely cost Democrats four seats — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire — while denying them shots to pick up in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. A 12-point shift would put Colorado in play for the GOP, while New York-style shifts could place seats in Oregon and Washington at risk. Imagine Mitch McConnell as majority leader with 55 seats or more at his disposal. …”
They’re a lot more excited about this than us.
This is the David Shor nightmare scenario playing out when the Democrat “strategy” is getting them clobbered on their most favorable terrain in states like Virginia and Colorado. All it took was to give the Democrats the opportunity to pull the pin on the grenade and have the national stage all to themselves to implement their insane agenda and self destruct like this.
So, it is easy to imagine the GOP winning about 60 House seats, holding their Senate seats, picking up the 4 toss up Senate seats and perhaps a few more like the Colorado seat in the 2022 midterms, not to mention all the governorships and state legislature seats that will fall. It will be a bloodbath like the 2010 Tea Party wave. The Senate map in 2024 will also be much more favorable for Republicans.
The crowning achievement will be the comeback of Blumpf in 2024 with a Trumpified supermajority in Congress. Assuming Joe Biden sees the writing on the wall and chooses not to run for reelection, the GOP could get up to 60 Senate seats with Kamala Harris as the nominee.
Note: Imagine what it would be like for the Democrats to be that deep in the minority WITHOUT the filibuster.