I’m not supporting anyone in this race.
I don’t see anyone worth supporting in my own country. I’m certainly not about to decisively weigh in on French politics. I’m glad that I don’t have to make this choice.
Generally speaking, I have a positive view of Éric Zemmour based on what I have seen from him. I think he is sincere. I thought his announcement speech was fantastic. To my knowledge, he is running to the Right of everyone in Europe, not just Marine Le Pen. He is a skilled debater and has charisma like Trump. He might be able to go further than Le Pen due to his ability to command media attention.
As things stand today, I believe Le Pen is ahead of Zemmour in the polls. The fact that Zemmour is running to the Right of Le Pen could help normalize her with the squishy moderates that she would need to win. Given the fact that Marine Le Pen has already lost twice, Zemmour might have a better shot at winning a general election. Either way, I expect the outcome will be closer than it was in 2017.
The race is certainly more interesting now than I had thought it was going to be. I had assumed it would be a Le Pen-Macron rematch with Le Pen gaining ground and Macron winning more narrowly than before. This has been the story of French politics for the last twenty years.