I don’t have many misses this year:
- The Wokelash – In 2021, woke became a joke and a political albatross for Democrats. As we close out the year, the backlash against Wokeism is still gaining momentum with reforms like “Defund the Police” backfiring and being disavowed by Democrats.
- Red Wave – Republicans are on track to retake Congress in the 2022 midterms. This was also predictable based on historical precedent. We’ve seen wave after wave of backlash politics since 2006. At least one branch of Congress has shifted to the opposing party in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018.
- Radicalization – Trump voters have radicalized under Joe Biden with the term anti-white, the Great Replacement and secession going mainstream. Nothing moves public opinion on the Right like having a Democrat in office whether it is Bill Clinton, Barack Obama or now Joe Biden. Trump was a dam who as president was holding back the further radicalization of his supporters.
- President Joe Manchin – We anticipated that a 50/50 Senate would be a divisive poison pill for Democrats and that nothing but the $1,400 checks and maybe an infrastructure bill would pass Congress due to the opposition of President Joe Manchin.
- Charlottesville – The verdict in the Charlottesville trial in which nationalists got screwed combined with the decision to melt down the Robert E. Lee statue is consistent with everything we have previously seen in that corrupt city whether it was the police stand down at Unite the Right or the acquittal of DeAndre Harris.
- January 6 – I repeatedly said before the 2020 election that the only thing we knew for certain is that the loser would not accept that the election was legitimate. If Trump lost, I also predicted there would be less violence and that is pretty much what happened. Overall, it was a very quiet year after the outburst at the Capitol Siege.
- The Peak – I called the peak of the Biden presidency after the passage of the COVID relief bill and around the time he delivered his Joint Address to Congress.
- Inflation – The return of inflation was definitely my biggest miss although it isn’t surprising given the supply chain issues and the sheer size of COVID relief packages that were passed under Trump and Biden.
- Delta variant – I assumed that COVID would fade over the summer as the vaccination rate rose and that the public would turn its attention to other less favorable issues for Democrats like crime and immigration in the summer and fall. The latter happened, but I didn’t anticipate Delta or the return to wearing masks or Joe Biden’s vaccine mandate.
- Afghanistan – I didn’t anticipate that the withdrawal from Afghanistan would be so ineptly managed or would look so bad on television or that it would be as unpopular as it turned out to be. I thought it would be a win for Joe Biden
- Child Tax Credit – The child tax credit wasn’t nearly as popular as I expected it would be. I attribute this to partisanship though. If Trump had enacted the same policy, it would have been more popular because his base opposes it out of lib owning and because it has Joe Biden’s name on it. The same people supported withdrawing from Afghanistan until Joe Biden did it.
- Joe Biden’s Collapse – I didn’t think that Joe Biden would be this unpopular and would fail this badly as president or that Independents would turn against him so hard that even Trump could lay claim to being the lesser of two evils and the favorite in 2024. Inflation, Delta and Afghanistan sent the Biden presidency into a tailspin in August from which it still hasn’t recovered.