Marine Le Pen Surges In French Presidential Election

We haven’t paid much attention to this.

The conventional wisdom has been that Emmanuel Macron was sailing to victory and that Marine Le Pen’s campaign was falling apart. As things stand today though, the center right candidate Valérie Pécresse has faded, Éric Zemmour’s campaign has moved the Overton Window and made Le Pen look more moderate and Macron is in trouble due to inflation and high gas prices.

New York Times:

Marine Le Pen, the hard-right leader making her third attempt to gain power, has surged over the past couple of weeks, as her patient focus on cost-of-living issues has resonated with the millions of French people struggling to make ends meet after an increase of more than 35 percent in gas prices over the past year.

The most recent poll from the respected Ifop-Fiducial group showed Ms. Le Pen gaining 21.5 percent of the vote in the first round of voting next Sunday, almost double the vote share of the fading extreme-right upstart Éric Zemmour, with 11 percent, and closing the gap on Mr. Macron with 28 percent. The two leading candidates go through to a runoff on April 24.

More worrying for Mr. Macron, the poll suggested he would edge Ms. Le Pen by just 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent in the second round. In the last presidential election, in 2017, Mr. Macron trounced Ms. Le Pen by 66.1 percent to 33.9 percent in the runoff.

“It’s an illusion that this election is won for Mr. Macron,” said Nicolas Tenzer, an author who teaches political science at Sciences Po university. “With a high abstention rate, which is possible, and the level of hatred toward the president among some people, there could be a real surprise. The idea that Le Pen wins is not impossible.”

The Guardian:

“After a decade spent trying to detoxify the jack-booted image of the far-right, anti-immigration party she took over from her father, Le Pen this week reached her highest poll ratings and popularity. Polls show her not only reaching the second round final against the centrist president Emmanuel Macron on 24 April, but significantly closing the gap. An Ifop poll alarmed Macron’s camp by showing her reaching 47% against his 53%, the narrowest margin yet and far closer than when he defeated her with 66% in 2017.

Political opponents still decry Le Pen’s National Rally party as racist, xenophobic, antisemitic and anti-Muslim, but polls show that, while society once rejected her as the “devil” of the republic, public perception of her has softened. On her third presidential bid, Le Pen, 53, has risen to become the second favourite political personality in France behind Macron’s former prime minister Edouard Philippe in Elabe’s latest monthly survey. …”

Reuters:

“PARIS, April 4 (Reuters) – Opinion polls point to the far-right’s Marine Le Pen as the main challenger to President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election, in a repeat of the 2017 match.

Le Pen has shifted her campaign focus to purchasing power, the number one priority for French voters, without shedding far-right policies from her election programme …”

New York Times:

“While Macron has focused on trying to find a diplomatic solution in Ukraine — and is failing, so far — his leading opponent has instead focused on the French economy, my colleague Roger Cohen explains in a preview of the election. That opponent is Marine Le Pen, a hard-right candidate.

As Roger writes, “Her patient focus on cost-of-living issues has resonated with the millions of French people struggling to make ends meet after an increase of more than 53 percent in gas prices over the past year.”

Macron will probably squeak it out.

Who knows though? Could Putin do something to spike energy prices this month?

Still though, the overall trend is that the entire French political spectrum has shifted to the Right, so much so that Marine Le Pen no longer looks like the dangerous radical in French politics. The neoliberal centrist Emmanuel Macron hasn’t soared in popularity because of Ukraine either.

If everything changed on February 24, why have Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron been sliding in the polls? Why is inflation and high energy prices, not Ukraine, dominating politics? Why was Viktor Orbán just reelected in a landslide? Orbán ran on putting Hungary First and staying out of the war.

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22 Comments

    • Yeah, that’s why I have largely ignored the race. The energy shock might shake things up though

      • There is no really socialist French ethno-socialist candidate. There is no good reason to vote. French people need the opportunity to elect another Francois “Gracchus” Babeuf, or even a young revolutionary Napoleon (the recently enfranchised French peasants and workers voted overwhelmingly for Napoleon every time) who will REALLY “restore the Republic” and defend it.

        A few Yellow Vests might vote for Mary Le Pen out of frustration, but most know better. Many Yellow Vests say they will abstain from voting.

        The Yellow Vests have just staged a large “march of the crippled and blind and in memory of the dead.” Thousands of Yellow Vests and been crippled, blinded or murdered by Macron’s police who continue to do so with full impunity. Three-quarters of the French electorate say they support the Yellow Vests, but a much smaller percentage has the courage or strength to actually participate in the peaceful marches that continue month after month, year after year.

        • Who knows, at this very moment there may be an extremely ambitious young artillery officer in the French army who becomes a general before the age of thirty and then declares himself the head of a new Triumverate?

          • Le Pen is a “phony French nationalist.” So well said: “The same crew who own Macron own Le Pen even better,” and “Neither Le Pen or Zemmour are advocating for Frexit and Otanexit. To the contrary, both far right candidates push for a clash of civilization with strong neo-conservative and Zionist alliances. In fact, their patron Vincent Bolloré needs the Africom (pentagon military command) logistics and support to protect the French looting operations in their Africa Franc CFA zone. The phony French nationalists bankrolled by African blood money are currently fighting for survival. The collapse of the 5th republic will accelerate should they lose the struggle against pan-African forces in Mali (backed by Russia, the young Malian officers were in Moscow last week) and French West Africa.” Le Pen will be every bit as imperialistic as Macron.

            Right-populists like Le Pen who oppose socialism will inevitably go full capitalist in the long run.

            Remember how excited you were about the right-populist Rodrigo Duterte when he was elected? Now he is a full supporter of the Empire against China, Russia, and the Filipino people, and it had to be so because he is at heart an anti-socialist. Birds of a feather (vultures in this case) will always, finally flock together.

  1. “conventional wisdom has been that Emmanuel Macron was sailing to victory ”

    Or,
    Is that the controlled media narrative ?

  2. France is too far gone to matter. Paris is going to resemble Beirut soon but with more starvation.

    • You may very well be right but Lebanon is suffering because of a protracted war being waged against it by Washington and Tel Aviv.

    • >France is too far gone to matter.

      I have traveled extensively in France, meaning not only the cities, but also the countryside, in all regions — while I do not underestimate the power and influence of the Île-de-France, outside of Paris and other big cities, France is still France, and the people are still French — it is a fantastic place, unique in the world (food, culture), and definitely worth saving.

        • I have been to Riems, mostly to see the cathedral — I have also been to Rouen, and both are definitely worth a visit — I do not recall seeing all that many ‘Africans and Mohammedans’, but there are a few; nothing like Paris — even when they are present, they tend to be more concentrated in banlieues, and there is no reason to go there anyway (with some exceptions, e.g. St Denis in Paris).

          By ‘countryside’ I was referring to renting a car, and driving thru regions like Normandie, Bretagne, Champagne, etc, while staying in small hotels in towns and villages, or even better chambre d’hôtes offered by farms or in rural/country houses (similar to AirBnB, which I would avoid due to their corporate practices) — this way you meet normal, ordinary French people, and can learn about them and their lives.

          Too many people think what they see in Paris, either in person on TV, is representative of France, when it isn’t.

        • >Nice to hear that’s it’s not all gone yet.

          In many respects, the same is true of America, believe it or not:

          Blue Highways is a book by William Least Heat-Moon — it refers to the smaller highways on a map, where the large interstate highways are generally colored red — if you travel thru America via its ‘blue highways’, you will see that in many areas it still resembles the 1960s or 1970s demographically (albeit with a lot more fat people) — although published in 1982, it’s still largely true today, as I have experienced.

          The book chronicles the 13,000 mile journey and the people he meets along the way, as he steers clear of cities and interstates, avoiding fast food and exploring local American culture.

      • When were you last in France? I am not sure what you say is true anymore. My understanding is that the Macron government has made an effort over the last few years to settle immigrants in less urban areas.

        • Come on man, be serious — Macron has only been in power since 2017 — you’re not going to be able to dramatically change the demography of rural/provincial France in five years — besides, many of these areas are not especially affluent; they are largely rural, having only small towns and villages — generally these regions lack jobs, hence many French youth themselves leave to find better prospects elsewhere, including in Europe (e.g. there is a large French expat community in London).

          I was last in France in late 2021 — generally, I’ve spent approx one month in France each of the last ten years or so.

  3. I wonder what is going to happen in France and Germany when the USSA’s occupation of Europe finally ends? Another Franco-Prussian War, perhaps?

  4. When France is made up of mostly non French, it doesn’t look good for any nationalist movement to stay in power. The US has similar problems.

  5. Oh no, Jared Taylor and the VDare foreigners will be soiling their depends. They were aroused, aroused I say, by the French Zelensky, yet another Z, aka Zemmour. Seems the French were not taken in by that rat faced Algerian Jew.

    Will Soros allow a LePen to win this one? He controls the vote count, unlike in Hungary and Serbia.

    Orban got the most important thing right, early on. He seized the media. Putin did the same, just not as totally. That is how to do it.

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