National Review: Replacement Theory and Replacement Facts

I don’t write much about the Great Replacement on this website.

I agree that it is happening in some sense, but not with the simplified version which 1.) racializes the global fertility issue and 2.) blames it entirely on a Jewish conspiracy. To be crystal clear, there are secular, leftwing progressive Jews who relentlessly push for policies that are harmful for Whites, but so do all the other PMCs who share their values. Israel also has its own problem with the Great Replacement.

National Review:

“There is obviously no plan to lower the native birth rate. Without coordination, birth rates are collapsing in almost the entire world, well below replacement level in every country that is sufficiently urbanized. As native populations slow their growth, and eventually begin to decrease, immigrants to these societies may be seen less as “reinforcements” and more as replacements. But the effect is not exactly what the conspiracists allege. Because some number of Hispanic immigrants eventually identify as whites, it is actually African Americans who bear the brunt of “replacement,” such as it is. The African-American population of America is declining as the population of whites begins to stabilize or potentially increase.

The cause of this demographic shift is only partly the work of policy: a policy of allowing mass immigration. The far more consequential part of the equation is the low fertility rate of natives, a fertility rate that new immigrants are converging towards faster than ever. Unless there is an unfathomable change in our culture, even the immigrants who are supposedly replacing the natives are merely next in line to be replaced by others yet still. Their numbers will not increase relatively, as those of Irish-Catholic immigrants once did, from generations of a notably higher-than-average family size.

Americans are not being replaced so much as self-extinguishing. America’s present native population and its way of life are the enemy of America’s posterity. Perhaps it is the immigrants who should fear that joining us is a threat to the generations yet unborn.”

The Israeli version of the Great Replacement is the fear that Israel will lose its Jewish character and will be overwhelmed by a tidal wave of births among Palestinians. Israel has one of the highest birthrates in the developed world – 3.1 children per woman – but Israel’s birthrate is propped up by the ultra-Orthodox who have an incredible 6.7 children per woman. 1 in 4 Israelis will be ultra-Orthodox by 2050.

Here in the United States, secular, leftwing progressive Jews have also swallowed their own poison. Alan Dershowitz wrote The Vanishing American Jew about these negative demographic trends which have only accelerated since his book was published in 1997. Non-Orthodox American Jews are even more afflicted than evangelical White Protestants by the scourges of deracination, secularization, miscegenation, intermarriage, feminism, contraception, homosexuality, gay marriage, “trans,” abortion, immigration and so forth. These liberal and modernist causes have far more traction among the secular Jews who are said to be the architects of White Genocide. Over half of American Jews have a non-Jewish spouse. The truth is that Jews are breeding out, losing ethnic cohesion and becoming mixed race urbanite bugmen.

It looks pretty simple when you look at the trend from the outside. Jews who are losing their religion, which is the bulk of them in the United States, are losing their identity and having less children and breeding out and falling into the pit of cultural degeneration. In contrast, the most religious Jews have the strongest sense of Jewish identity and the highest birthrates. The ultra-Orthodox in Israel have the highest Jewish birthrate because the real issue is the decoupling of religion, sexuality and reproduction in the toxic secular culture that is created by the merger of liberalism and modernism.

The irony of the Great Replacement is that you will hear a lot of the same gripes and sense of demographic panic coming from within the Jewish community. Diaspora Jews are increasingly accused of disloyalty to Israel. Secular, leftwing progressive Jews aren’t as loyal to their own ethnic community as violent accelerationists accuse of them of being. They are far more loyal to the values of their toxic ideology and their degenerates lifestyles. The proof is their eagerness to put themselves above their group.

About Hunter Wallace 12381 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. 1.Those ultra orthodox do have a lot of kids BUT many of them are retarded because of extensive inbreeding.

    2. Children born to a jewish and gentile parent are ALWAYS raised as jews.

    3. Messicans breed like mice in their home country but when they move here their birthrate tends to drop almost to gringo levels. Modern, urbanized and materialistic First World societies are just not conducive to having large families.

    • “3. Messicans breed like mice in their home country but when they move here their birthrate tends to drop almost to gringo levels.”

      Sort of true, but they do start pretty early. I remember listening to the old Tom Leykis radio show based in LA in the mid 2000’s and his “callers” were almost in all the exact same situation: young American raised Mexican guys in the LA area who knocked up their 19 year old Mexican girlfriends who usually lied about the pill and were itching to start breeding. They start early like in Mexico, just when they see how much things cost raising a kid here the usually don’t go on to keep having 6 or 7 kids like people do in rural developing countries.

      Hard to list all the poisons that limit fertility in the modern west, but I’d say urbanization is part of it. Why not have a whole bunch of smaller towns and spread out the population. No more New York City/Chicago type concrete monstrosities where you have to drive 50 miles to see an open field with fresh air. Let Detroit go back to nature as parts of it are. Another one is universal college, parents “worry” about the costs, it breaks up the budding communities and families adolescents are forming during high school and encourages moving out of the hometown and becoming atomized individuals. Then there is the substance abuse and sexual degeneracy bad habits picked up in college. All this doesn’t even take into account the leftist brainwashing which seems very effective particularly for the females attending which then are allowed to vote us into oblivion. Too many poisons to list, but there are two more to add to secularism, feminism, and abortion.

  2. The National Jew Review always has to insert some hostility towards their gentile hosts in their articles by not capitalizing the w in white, but referring to spix and blax using capital letters. I’m getting more than a little annoyed at those hostile alien pests and their friggin’ ingratitude.

  3. > 1.) racializes the gloabl fertility issue

    I’m not sure what you mean by this — ? — nothing is more important than race, and looking at current migration, and the way it impacts (almost exclusively) white countries, fertility should be viewed as a global racial issue.

    linkDemographics determine the success of a nation. Not ideology.

    >2.) blames it entirely on a Jewish conspiracy.

    Maybe some do, but most don’t — recall that screen cap of a tweet by Parrott I posted a few days ago (thanks for sharing his well-disguised Twitter account; it seems after the Buffalo incident the took it off-line).

    Non-Orthodox American Jews are even more afflicted than evangelical White Protestants by the scourges of deracination, secularizarion, miscegenation, intermarriage, feminism, contraception, homosexuality, gay marriage, “trans,” abortion, immigration and so forth.

    Maybe, I don’t know — re the things above that can be called sexual deviancy, probably — I tend to doubt Jews are, to any significant extent, disproportionately affected by miscegenation and intermarriage — but when you have ‘leftwing progressive Jews’, including billionaires and other very powerful, influential people, who ‘relentlessly push for policies’ that protect Jews, perhaps it matter less — right now it is, for all practical purposes, impossible to advocate for Whites or white identity (ask Craig Nelsen) — basically, all Whites can do is vote, and that does no good whatsoever.

    The Establishment does not permit even rational criticism of Jews, never mind demonization — whereas Whites are constantly scapegoated and blamed for the problems of non-whites — looking at what happened in Rhodesia and South Africa, this is dangerous, as 2020 made it clear people in charge do not have the will to control violent Blacks who fill the streets — it is not unfair to call the removal of statues etc (physical elimination) a kind of soft violence, which is meant to humiliate and demoralize Whites — Jews are simply not subjected to this.

    • 1. Demographic collapse and declining fertility is a global problem. This isn’t an issue that is specific to Whites. Racializing the issue obscures the fact that other races like Asians and American Indians have low birth rates here too. The Hispanic birthrate is down and low birth rates are a problem in Mexico too. I have already brought up how devastating the problem is in Japan.

      All I am saying is that the issue is much more complicated than it is presented. The “White birthrate” obscures huge differences between Whites based on religion and values. The same is true of Jews with the ultra-Orthodox in Israel having a massively higher birthrate than blacks or Hispanics here in the U.S.

      2. If Jews are behind the Great Replacement, they are doing an even better job replacing themselves. The rate of miscegenation, outmarriage and atheism among Jews far exceeds that of Whites.

      • As I’m sure you know, deaths among Whites outnumber births in a substantial majority of states — is that true for any other ethnic group?

        Where (besides Japan; the Japanese do not want to emigrate en masse) in the world outside white countries is the birthrate very near or below replacement? — I’m far less concerned with the fertility rates of third world non-whites (or with non-whites in the US) than I am with the fact there are literally billions of them, and many would move to a white country yesterday if they could.

        Anyway, I’m not sure there is much of a point to contend here — I ‘racialize’ the issue because my biggest concern is migration pressure, including because the number of plausible grounds for asylum is growing all the time — and I think this will not lessen (regardless of third world fertility).

        I will not be surprised, but do you have a source for your claim about intermarriage and miscegenation among Jews? — you are normally good at providing a citation.

        I’m used to being around a good many Indians (dot), and regardless of education level they still generally enter into arranged marriages (with other Indians naturally).

      • Israel has an incredibly high birthrate, and the most extreme immigration policy on earth. Jews run America and enforce policies that lower the white birth rate and make it impossible to keep anyone out.

        Blaming this on their janissaries and pretending they are equally affected is either malicious or retarded. You pick.

      • Some Jewish writers admit that Judaism is always ‘leaky’ despite the seeming focus on bloodlines. There’s always been Jews drifting out, and always new Jews from inter-marriage, like Jared and Ivanka, or the huge amount of 1800s marriages between rich Jews and British aristocrats. Not to mention the biggest Jewish add-on of all – admitted now in Israel – the Khazarian converts of mediaeval Ukraine.

        Israel counts around 200 million ‘part-Jews’ in the world who should be taken as Jewish-Israeli assets too, like US politician John ‘Kohn’ Kerry who ‘forgot’ his father was Jewish.

      • Falling fertility is only a problem if you bring in large numbers of immigrants. Japan’s population could shrink by 50-75% and they’d be just fine; in fact they would consume far less of critical natural resources. The world desperately needs fewer people overall.

          • Indeed, and largely attributable to mimickery of degenerate Western practices.

          • Social problems come and go. At least their genetic heritage is not threatened yet, unlike Whites.

      • A big part of the original “great replacement” idea is that despite many other countries having similar birth rate problems as White countries, only White countries are subjected to replacement level immigration. Japan is not. China is not. Bringing up their fertility problems only lends support to the great replacement idea, since it shows that only White countries are expected to accept mass replacement immigration.

          • Yes, the point is that birth rates are a red herring, usually only brought up by anti-White scum like the writers at NRO. You can tell this is a bad faith argument because these people never even attempt to propose any other solutions to declining birth rate, only using it as an excuse for their desired policy of mass immigration (which they would support regardless of birth rates).

            A conscious decision has been made to minoritize Whites in all countries in which they previously had majorities for hundreds or thousands of years. There are multiple factors behind this. Matt Parrot laid out three main factors:

            1. White greed. Effects of capitalism, such as importing cheap and easily exploitable labor
            2. White guilt. This includes the “White savior” complex of self-hating White libtards
            3. White grudge. The JQ, their historical ethnic grudge against Europeans and against Christians


            The reason people usually focus on the JQ with this is because the JQ also contributes to both of the other factors, by way of Jews’ heavy influence on the development of modern capitalism and their dominance over culture formation through mass media.

    • For Jews, it doesn’t really matter because their power doesn’t come from population numbers anyway. They have always practiced a minority strategy. As long as they have enough people to capture different chokepoints in society, then they’re good.

  4. Interesting facts and figures there. It would be interesting to know the ethnicity of the spouses most Jews choose. Much of Hollywood royalty is comprised of individuals of part Jewish, part European ancestry such as Harrison Ford, Jamie Lee Curtis or Micheal Douglas.
    In Australia, marriage between those of British ancestry and southern European ancestry is massively widespread…….far greater than any other pairing such as white/Asian, etc. The resulting children look, act and sound purely Australian.
    It should be noted that most black Americans are about 8% white on average, and most Australian Aborigines and New Zealand Maoris have a portion of white…… usually British ancestry.
    But the thing is, in Africa, the Middle East and much of Asia, no interbreeding occurs as they aren’t racially diverse to begin with. So whites are being mixed out everywhere they are, whilst everyone else are remaining pure in THEIR homelands.

  5. The incontrovertible and irrefutable edge to the great replacement theory is the intersection it has with sustainable group self-determination.

    What does it mean to be colonised? It means to lose the ability that was once possessed, to exercise sustainable self-rule and self-determination.

    Meaningful enfranchisement (for a group in a larger body) is not every individual having a vote, that is not enough, but having the vote resolve with the choice of the majority of their group selected in the end. If a weight of numbers of other votes directs the outcome other than their (majority) choice, they do not, as a group, retain sustainable enfranchisement or self-determination. They are no longer dictating the rules and regime they live under, but having it dictated to them.

    This is not a human right Blacks lose when others come to America, as Blacks are unable, except by chance, to have their desires carried by a broader vote, as a result of their smaller numbers. You can’t be dispossessed of something you don’t have, and never had in a space.

    Group self-determination & enfranchisement are the KEY human (group) rights lost under conditions of colonisation.

    A people who had self-determination, and then lost it via migrant flows, ends up in the same place as Whites in South Africa today, Tibetans in Tibet and so on.

    It would be an obvious human rights crime to setup a process that would deprive the Chinese of having control of what happens in China. The mechanism of loss of ability to self-rule is not important, lack of births, war, foreign imposed force… the harm is inherent in losing the ability, & where it has been facilitated by others, and it was avoidable or postponable without doing great harm to others, then the onus is there to sustain the right for as long as possible, to allow the attempt to sustain the quality indefinitely.

    Moreover this sets up the ways that the right can be retained, and expanded to others, if it is at the point of being lost, to extend it. I.e DIVISION of space & allocation to separate spaces the right to self rule. THAT ALREADY EXIST. I.e. if Baltimore (it is Black majority right?) was allowed complete self-rule, Blacks there would now be able ti exercise and REALISE their right to (group) self-determination & self-rule. (Noting FEDERAL/STATE oversight would be removed entirely, and their enfranchisement at that level).
    Ethnic Malays, and Ethnic Chinese solved these same problems in Malaya, in a similar way, with the creation of Singapore.

    Ultimately this is all we need. SOME cities, SOME states, SOME land. (I know that is conceding a lot.. but.. where we can remain whole and self-ruling, we can still restore ourselves at a later date on a broader scale).

    Centre on group self-determination as the item to be retained. It is the fairest request a people can make: hey, we just want to rule ourselves and not be ruled by foreigners.

    Marxist Whites want to go their own way? Cool. We already geographically concentrate. Give them their space for self-rule without our oversight to raceme and breed out of existence. Not our loss, better for us.

    Try to retain that the whole US landmass, but fallback to dividing it. A process where that right is centred and extended as an olive branch to others too, provides the human rights argument to always be on our side. A request to self rule is not racist. When self-ruling borders can be closed. The higher breeding White groups will be there and their commitment to naturalism and their people will grow. Thought policing our own to hold them to this will grow.

    Maybe Jews get New York, Hispanics LA & Texas, Whites some other spaces, maybe sans the largest urban areas which become self-governing city states.

    “You are a supremacist” “no, I just believe in the human right of groups to self-rule, and support that being maximised for as many people as possible”.

    FACTUALLY a large body of people making decisions for the whole, offers less to less people, & is LESS democratic than 7 groups, with greater alignment within each group, making 7 different decisions, in 7 different spaces.

    (You can do the maths of the number that get to live under regimes they desire, it is INDEED maximised no matter how votes split out).

    Sustainable group self-determination is a fundamental human right, that any and every group suffers for not having.

    Jews (actually) removed it from us long ago. We do not today, actually have it, despite being a majority in our land. But it can be regained in spaces within. I normally get this out much easier when someone is arguing against me, but hopefully you get the gist.

  6. And this is another evidence that the main problem is not the race (which is obviously an important issue) but the leftist ideology. This ideology replace a lot of things: replace heterosexuals with gays; male and female with gender theory; nation culture with globalism; health lifestyle with degeneration (drugs) and local culture with global culture or as we know it cancel culture. We would solve many problems if we could free our nations from the left that holds them hostage.

  7. Low fertility is also a result of government policy. It’s not something that just occurs as a result of “culture.”

    And diluting the meaning of White to include mestizos who “identify” as White is part of the replacement. It’s actually an even more insidious form of replacement than mass immigration itself is.

    • As the great FDR said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” It’s no coincidence that every government policy just so happens to result in less huWhites.

      Hunter seems to be going a bit soft. There is indeed a conspiracy against us. Hell, not even sure you could call it a conspiracy anymore since that implies some level of secrecy.

  8. National Review 2022: “it is actually African Americans who bear the brunt of ‘Replacement.'”

    National Review 1982: If the world were ending tomorrow the New York Times headline would read World to end Tomorrow-Women and minorities will be hardest hit.

  9. Non orthodox Jews may be losing their religion, but religion is at best secondary to them . Being a Jew is primarily a cultural and ethnic identity- a Jewish atheist//pedophile like the late Allen Ginsburg- is welcome to become an Israeli citizen, but the most servile shabbos goy gentile like the televangelist loose cannon John Hagee is not, because of his bloodline. Jews are like Captain Ahab in Moby Dick- their hatred of “the Great White Whale” (us)is so intense that they’ll sacrifice anything- their crew,, their ship and even their own life in order to kill it! All liberal movements in America since the second great wave of immigration are basically conceived , financed and masterminded by Jews- including but not limited to the Great Replacement.Lliberalism almost instinctive to them.- typically 80% of them vote for the Democratic candidate for President, in most presidential elections and almost half of the remaining 20% vote for candidates even more liberal than the Democrat- like the American Communist Party candidate.=, for example- or a Ralph Nader back in his day… Any doubts? – follow thew money!

  10. Mass immigration actually will hurt blacks. Latinos and Asians won’t care about their sad tales of slavery and Jim Crow. Nevertheless, blacks overwhelmingly vote for the party of mass immigration. I think many of them see it as a way to harm whitey. They seem perfectly willing to cut off his nose, even if it spites their face.

    • Yep….most of them are too stupid to figure it out. They can’t see ahead to the consequences….hurting whitey is the most important thing for them.

  11. By the way, the new Prime Minister of France appointed to aid Rothschild banker Macron’s 2nd term is Jewish, Élisabeth Borne, name changed from her father Joseph Bornstein, per the Jerusalem Post

  12. Regarding Hunter’s main point, it’s indeed true that common Jews suffer a lot from policies pushed by elite Jews (and their elite gentile partners). But this has always been the case. Jews were never a comprehensive mafia-for-all-Jews, sharing all spoils.

    In Israel, many Jews live in quasi-poverty. Some WW2 survivors in Israel went back to Germany to get better health care. In 1930s-40s a few Zionists talked openly about how it might be necessary for a million or more Jewish losers to die, so Israel can become a reality.

    And Jews can suffer life-destroying consequences as bad as gentiles if they seriously challenge Jewish elites. This has been the case for millennia, Ron Unz recently documenting a lot of this.

    The ‘JQ’ is a result of continual ELITE Jewish bonding with other elites, in many societies, a regular pattern. There is also a huge supply of 2nd tier ‘PMC’ type Jews willing to be functionaries for elites.

    Lower-tier common Jews, or even dissident ones, can feel boxed in. They often suffer the brunt of anti-Jewish dislike out there, and tend to feel it is sheer survival to adhere to the identity – however awful Jewish elites above them, they don’t see an exit. Jews are propaganda targets of each other.

    Every major internet Jewish dissident who denounces Jewish power – Henry Makow, Ron Unz, Gilad Atzmon, Israel Shamir etc – is nonetheless at times accused of being ‘fake shill opposition’ etc, regardless of how scorching their denunciations of elite Jewish misconduct. They can never please all the ‘it’s da joos!’ crowd.

  13. jews cry antisemitism and other victimhood status words when the population of jews decrease in Israel while promoting it throughout the west. Instead of excepting it as they except the gentile to do , they fight it by deporting the non jews to gentile countries.

  14. “Because some number of Hispanic immigrants eventually identify as whites”

    I don’t give a damn what they identify as. They aren’t White and never will be.

  15. Our problems might be helped a little if somebody in this country could put a stop to thousands of people crossing the border illegally, coming here and squatting. I have waited for one of the big mouth governors to do something, Abbott from Texas seemed to feel that he had 25 or 30 foreigners bused to Washington every day that would do it. But, they aren’t getting 50 people a day, it’s thousands every week.

    Once they get to the U.S some liberal retard will see that they get free stuff, and treated better than native born citizens.

    Why can’t Abbott send the national guard to the border, and the state police, he has authority, deputize as many people as you have to deputize, but keep these Goddamn people out of this country. Once they get here, the leftist dildos will begin protecting them.

    Most of the country is going be lost if somebody with authority doesn’t try to stop this. The federal government is not performing it’s duty to protect the border, and defend the citizens of the United States. The governors should step up, or local sheriffs, or somebody for God’s sake.,

  16. balticus made a good point about ordinary jews also being victims of elite jews, but the jew has an immediate knee jerk reaction to any perceived anti semitism and will usually side with their tribe.

    RE: the increasing demographics of orthodox jews in israel. This is sowing the seeds of a future disaster for Israel. Most of the orthodox live on welfare. They dont work so they can spend a lot of time on religious studies.

    Also most orthodox jews will not join the IDF. When 50% of Israeli population is orthodox, it will put huge pressure on government finances, and let’s not forget the increasing bitterness of the secular jews who will bear the brunt, in higher taxes and fighting Israel’s wars. There is already animus between the two sides in Israel. This will only intensify over the next decades.

  17. More nonsense Black pandering by (in)terminational Review.

    Hunter please don’t bother with NR anymore.

    It’s the same argument that Affirmative Action is bad because it hurts Blacks. Nope, Affirmative Action is bad because it promotes inequality Blacks gives them sh*#$& like $300,000 a year jobs as administrators for diversity in our colleges and universities.

    We’ve tried for 35 years to recruit English speaking Blacks to oppose mass Hispanic immigration – no luck.

    The anti White co-alition in Left Demorats still puts Black Leftists on top – gerrymandering Black congressional seats. The great replacement of Black Leftist pols should soon happen in Southern California – that might cause some rethinking, but I doubt it.

    Blacks still want to be like Barack and Michelle Obama who now will have:

    A mansion in diplomat community in Washington DC
    The Magnum PI estate in Hawaii
    A $13 million country estate on Martha’s Vineyard MA

    Oh, and they’ve just grabbed a large chunk of Chicago’s Jackson Park – lakefront park back in my old neighborhood. They’re building a 24 story high rise personality cult BLM temple/BLM training center. This is something Idi Amin or a Black Nero, Caligula would do. The Obamas still have an abandoned mansion in Chicago, again in my old neighborhood.

    This is what Blacks aspire to be and mass Hispanic immigration, Muslim immigration doesn’t hurt this Black dream, nor dreams of being NBA, NFL or rap stars.

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