I’m finally home.
I was too exhausted from our road trip yesterday to write anything. I only pulled myself out of the bed last night to pay the bill and reopen the site.
“Republican Mayra Flores flipped a Democratic House district in South Texas on Tuesday, a major special election victory building on GOP gains among Latino voters in the region in the 2020 election.
Flores, a respiratory care practitioner, had 51 percent of the vote to Democrat Dan Sanchez’s 43 percent when Sanchez conceded the race in a district where 85 percent of residents are Latino. Flores won the seat outright by taking a majority of the vote, without needing a runoff.
The seat was open after former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela resigned to work for a lobbying group in March. Flores will be the first Mexican-born congresswoman and the first Republican to represent the Rio Grande Valley area since Reconstruction. However, she will only hold the seat until January. …”
Mayra Flores is the big news of the day.
She flipped a House seat last night in South Texas that the Democrats have held since Reconstruction. You’re probably going to be hearing a lot more about Flores.
We’ve been watching these polls for a year or two which have consistently showed “Latinx” voters turning on Joe Biden. Democrats lost a lot of ground around the border in the Rio Grande Valley in the 2020 election. The trend was already evident before gas prices and inflation skyrocketed. The latest Quinnipiac poll had Joe Biden hovering at just 24% with “Latinx” voters.
A big question of the last thirty years is whether Democrats could hold on to their margins with these “Latinx” voters or whether Mexicans would eventually go the way of other immigrant groups like the Italians before them. Ruy Teixeira’s “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, which gradually devolved into the conventional wisdom that “demographics is destiny” in the Obama years, hinged on Democrats holding both their margins with non-White voters and millions of White working class voters which have been lost since the rise of the Tea Party. At some point, Democrats got cocky and began to assume that a “permanent progressive majority” was inevitable due to the Great Replacement. They are generally prone to thinking in far more racialized terms (see BIPOC, “Latinx”) than their opponents.
What if Hispanics deserted the BIPOC coalition and started splitting their votes or leaning Republican though? The polls have been suggesting this was coming for a year now. If that were to happen, it would obviously empower Republicans and make them more competitive in the non-Cuban Hispanic parts of the country like the Southwest. It is not unthinkable. Republicans already win the Cuban vote. They also won a lot of Latin American voters in 2020 from countries like Venezuela by running against socialism.
The upshot of this election is that, yes, it does seem like Democrats are losing their grip on “Latinx” voters. The polls are not wrong. There is also no such thing as “permanent majorities.” In reality, Democrats are approaching their weakest point at nearly all branches of government since the 1920s. The Democratic Party is fracturing, losing its grip on El Norte and seems to be retreating into a regional party of useless, arrogant, overeducated coastal libtards who live in overpriced metros.
Moral of the story: never underestimate the capacity of shitlibs to alienate swing voters and core Democratic base voters. The GOP is only competitive due to their dogmatism.
Note: It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out in California where the experiment in $7 a gallon gas and unaffordable rent is testing working class voters.