The Emerging Democratic Minority

December 11, 2021 Hunter Wallace Alt-Center, Conservatism, Culture, Hispanics, Political Science, Politics, Populists, Progressives 28

I’m giving credit where credit is due.

When I saw this, I was going to use the same headline this morning, but National Review beat me to it. Ruy Teixeira is changing his mind about racial demographic shifts in real time.

National Review:

“Democrats think that, because Ruy Teixeira has been telling them that Latino-driven demographic changes point to endless victory (known in some precincts of the right as “replacement theory”) for many years.

I don’t really blame Teixeira for changing his mind; when he wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority with John Judis in 2004 the Democratic Party was not yet a cult of lunatics dedicated to explaining that men can give birth, gigantic new federal spending programs reduce inflation, the comptroller of the currency should be someone who believes in “ending banking as we know it,” energy production should be re-outsourced to Saudi Arabia and Latinos should be referred to as “Latinx.” …”

Why is this so important?

This is hugely important for a number of reasons.

The reason that Democrats are so gung ho about open borders and amnesty is because they believe that changing the racial demographics of the country guarantees them a permanent majority like in California. Demonizing White people and flooding the country with non-Whites is a political strategy.

The problem is that White working class voters and Hispanic working class voters are too similar in what they care about: jobs, the economy, health care, etc. Both groups also hate political correctness and responded negatively to Black Lives Matter. Both groups are also socially conservative, economically moderate in their values. Both groups are also shifting Right.

I’ve written extensively about this last year.

Where did the MAGA voters who are Trump’s base come from? As recently as 2008 and 2012, these people were either Obama voters or were Independents. They were Democratic Leaning Working Class (DLWC) voters. Trump became president in 2016 because he won nearly a quarter of this group.

Look at it this way.

Before Trump came along and the choice was Obama or Mitt Romney, MAGA voters were floating around in the Center of the electorate. You can think of the 2016 election as a big chunk of the Democratic base – all these rural and small town White voters that they used to win and take for granted in states like Iowa and Ohio – breaking off and crashing into the Republican Party. This is why Upper Midwest states like Michigan and Wisconsin have suddenly become competitive for Republicans.

In the 2020 election, the process continued with Trump finding and flipping more of these White rural and small town voters in states like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. He lost White Independents in the suburbs all over the country especially White college educated voters who thought he was a retard because of COVID. Finally, one of the big takeaways of the 2020 election is that Trump began flipping Hispanic working class voters, most famously the Tejanos along the Mexican border.

The process has accelerated dramatically in 2021 and is potentially catastrophic for Democrats:

Ruy Teixeira:

“The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. …

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking.

Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read ‘em and weep. …

3. A recent 538 analysis of aggregated poll data shows that, while Biden has lost support among all racial groups in the last 9 months, the decline has been sharpest among Hispanics.

4. In Texas, perhaps the Democrats’ most prized target for their theory of the case, Biden’s ratings among Hispanics have been dreadful. A September Dallas Morning News poll had Biden’s approval rating among Texas Hispanics at an anemic 35 percent vs. 54 percent disapproval–19 points underwater. His approval rating on handling immigration at the border was even worse–29 points underwater. The latter rating is similar to Biden’s rating on the same issue among Texas Hispanics in the more recent Texas Tribune poll. …

6. In the 2020 election, Hispanics, after four years of Trump, gave him substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist, in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.

10. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in 2020, particularly in the summer. This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care. …”

“Latinx” men have turned against their fellow BIPOCs in favor of “white supremacy.”

Eric Kaufmann:

“However, by 2019, the last year available in the ANES, just 50% of nonwhites identified as Democrats. Minorities have been transitioning from Democratic party identification to being Independent. However, if the historic white Catholic pattern is a guide, this could be a prelude to growing Republican party identification — and thus election success — among minorities. …

Not only are the Republicans gaining ground among Latinos, but they are doing so in the face of everything the 2013 autopsy recommended. Increasingly, surveys are finding that Hispanics reject woke slogans like ‘defund the police’, ‘abolish ICE’ or ‘Latinx’. Many welcome Trump’s tough stance on the border and have a negative view of Biden’s performance on immigration. Indeed, many Hispanic Trump voters seem more than comfortable with national populist views, and differ little in this regard from white Trump voters, as figure 4 shows. …”

So, a lot of things are happening right now in the electorate which are foreshadowing the Emerging Democratic Minority:

  • White women who lied to pollsters about voting for Trump in 2020 who are labeled Karens have shifted back to the GOP in a large way in order to protect “white supremacy”
  • White evangelicals and small town and rural voters are voting more like blacks for Republicans. Those “Assad-like” margins makes the hill that Democrats have to climb with other voters much steeper
  • Older blacks still vote for Democrats by astronomical margins but younger blacks aren’t voting as reliably for them or turning out in as large numbers
  • “Latinx” men are shifting toward the Republicans in a significant way
  • White voters have soured on Joe Biden in a big way. He is down to like 30% with them. He won like 43% in the 2020 election. There is still room to fall with this group who were 30% of Joe Biden’s voters in 2020
  • White Independents continue to swing back and forth as usual
  • The Senate and Electoral College are biased toward rural voters in a way that makes it all but impossible for Democrats to push their agenda due to the distribution of their voters who are inefficiently concentrated in large coastal metro areas
  • Non-Whites are shifting from Democrats to Independents

The bottom line here though is that it becoming increasingly possible to see “Latinx” voters splitting 50/50 or even 60/40 for Republicans and that combined with their losses among White working class voters is sufficient to reduce the Democrats to a regional party of coastal libtards who speak their own woke language in the Acela Corridor and the West Coast who are locked out of power for a long time.

Note: Republicans don’t need policies or anything to win elections. Owning the libs and backlash politics is all that matters. The phrase “Let’s Go Brandon” works better than any governing agenda. Politics is about hating the other side now and this is how these people sound and come across.

About Hunter Wallace 12390 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

27 Comments

      • Hispanics are Catholics, and you know Catholics are natural conservatives like Joe Biden, Hunter Biden and Nancy Pelosi.

  2. We’ve seen the “Hispanics are natural Conservatives” shit since Reagan was elected in 1980 and every time the overwhelming majority of hispanics vote Democrat. The Republicans pine away for that mythical hispanic vote but it never appears for them, why should this time be different? If the hispanics do vote in larger numbers for Republicans next time it will be a one off event because the Democrat Party loves the blacks and the hispanics hate the blacks.

    The hispanics are voting their interests when they vote Democrat just like the blacks. The Democrats are the party of gibs for them so its logical for them to vote Democrat. A plus is that the Democrats are wildly anti-White which also suits the “natural conservative” hispanics the David French types love so much.

  3. Latrinos are going to be effected by gasoline prices. That trip from, lets say NC to the Mexican border has doubled in price. Even if you pack fourty of your Latrino relatives in a van. I have not checked taco inflation. LOL.

    • I would bet they get reimbursed for the gasoline money to get to the US and to the first big city. The liberals make sure they get what they want. Once here, our military flies or busses them all over the US.

  5. I always knew this would probably happen eventually. I grew up in a southern family moved to Arizona, where I spent the first 20 years of my life, my family still lives there. Hispanics had married into the family, my grandfather ran cotton gins. He was a cigar loving gentleman right out of a Faulkner story from the Mississippi delta. Mexicans were many of his employees, 2-3 were now relatives. Many were friends. He respected them because they worked hard, and did many of the same jobs he and his southern family and friends did. Both groups were from hot climates, had a colorful story telling tradition. And many other similar ties. And both have great food, oh the family dinners! And both would have black friends, but thought black society was disfunctional, sometimes crazy. They always had more in common with each other than they ever did with blacks, no matter what the Civil rights community and progressives thought. White settlers started intermarriage with hispanics centuries ago. They are a great people in their own right, having suffered much thru the centuries in Mexico. And, most importantly, til recently anyway, didn’t feel they were entitled. Progressives didn’t start that nonsense soon enough like they did with blacks. Although I am starting to see a few. But I think it’s too late now.

    • “The reason that Democrats are so gung ho about open borders and amnesty is because they believe that changing the racial demographics of the country guarantees them a permanent majority like in California. ”

      The democrats are just dupes in the greater strategy.
      ((They)) sold this line to the democrats, to accomplish the replacement of WHITES.
      Both democrats and republicans are being used in the greater scheme of WHITE elimination.

    • Democrat anti-whiteness cannot be explained as a political strategy because it doesn’t even win them elections. It’s just the culture of the Jews and DILE Whites who run the party.

      As for the Republican party, they will view any marginal increase in Latinx voters as an excuse to throw their White voters under the bus (even more than they already do).

    • Beaners… they eat beans (Tommy Chong). Mexicans are not as hostile. They are actually the most compatible immigrants I think. They are IQ shifted about 15 points down the bell curve tho. Being swamped with beaners has the positive that they will send the negroes packing. My Spanish is pretty gud so this seems like one of the best post-apocalyptic outcomes for me.

        • In Latin America generally, marrying white = marrying up. You should watch a Mexican newscast sometime. If you went by the appearance of the talking heads you’d think you were in Finland. Ironically, now in Finland you may well see a negroid baboon speaking Finnish. (Jews must be laughing their asses off at this).

  6. “did many of the same jobs he and his southern family and friends did. ”

    But they won’t be able to support an advanced technical society. The world is changing, dramatically.

  7. @shadowbass I think you’re analysis is pretty accurate, but one thing I would add is that a lot of the “Hispanics” in that area have high European (Spanish) admixture so they already have higher agency and less built-in resentments you can use to help build an “anti-White supremacy” coalition. When Democrats engage in their cheap anti-White race baiting lots of Hispanics take that as a personal attack. I know a lot of WN spergs will attack a guy like Nick Fuentes as a spic, but it was ridiculous of the Democrats to think people like him would find common cause with Black thugs, especially when 99% of people see him as White. When it comes to the NQ, hhhlatinos like him are way more woke than traditional White Americans.

    It all depends which Hispanics you’re talking about. “Hispanic” is pretty much useless as a category since it encompasses so many different people. From coal Blacks from the Carribean, to Indios from Latin America, to mulattoes from Puerto Rico, to 100% White or mostly White Cuban and SouthWesterners, how are you going to lump them together? Because their grandparents might have spoken Spanish? It was never going to add up.

  9. The beaners send more money back to their country they fled from than putting it the economy of the country they live in. Many don’t pay taxes, especially if they’re landscapers

    • I found when I had to call my state government about something, every person (3 extensions) I got on the phone, had a thick Mexican accent. How does this happen? They come here, and get a job in our government, when they can barely speak English? Perhaps they are controlling the money.

  10. Hunter, you and a majority of your commenters need to get out more and mix with real people instead of relying on assumptions based on folk “wisdom” on the race and ethnic questions. I have lived and worked among the mixed tribes of Florida, from Tallahassee and Pensacola in the North to Orlando and surrounding suburb/exurbs in Central Florida to Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida. Among the occupationally insecure working and middle class people of Central, South, African American and Carribbean decent, all are living their life as best they can given their individual and societal circumstances. They want a decent life, nothing more. Those who come from lands without hope are much more patriotic in a conventional sense then any white native. So the classification of all Hispanic, African American, and darker skinned people living in America as inherent enemies is false.
    The simple fact is we are all insecure in our spiritual/emotional lives because we are helpless against the whims of the profit seeking persons controlling the wealth generating organizations that employ us. Every last one of us, even the people who work at the feet of Bezos and his billionaire cohorts. Even those same billionaires are insecure ultimately because no one has to cooperate with them, occupationally or commercially. So a way out of the hatred/fear of The Other dead end is to somehow make that human connection that we are all at the mercy of ourselves because none of us have the time ( we are all mortal) or resources to control our fate, then act on that fact by conceding ourselves to a cooperative/individualist joint enterprise to together insure our material floor as effectively as possible, given social and technological constraints in current existence. Like say via a sovereign wealth funded universal basic income. Or in some other way.
    But disrespecting those who look or act to think differently about life will not make us more effective in reaching our individual life goals. As former commenter Ivan repeatedly said, we are not going to be able to deport or exterminate our colorful or otherwise different neighbors, and it would not be morally right even if we could. Of course, if someone of different looks or thoughts acts harmfully towards our very right to exist, fight or die. I’m an Old Testament guy.

  11. It’s clear that no hypothetical pro-White politician or party would need to specifically pander to the spics unfortunately already here to get their votes: just hammer the kikes, shitlib race traitors and their nig/trannyfag idolatry, call for ending the hated billionaire class and their ownership of politics & virtually everything else by taxing them massively and setting a sane Huey Long-type cap on personal wealth (still keeping it high enough to amply reward the smart & industrious), the busting up of Big Tech & (((media))), and the end of immigration legal & illegal, including the deportation of the wetbacks who are driving down everyone’s wages, including the greasers.

    All this of course would not achieve our ultimate goal of a renewed White nation, but it would apply the tourniquet that would stop the racial hemorrhage.

    Not much chance of any of it as long as the Orange Turd clogs the national toilet.

  12. I guarantee you the Democrats, and for that matter Republicans, will not abandon the policy of White replacement while Jews are still in power in the United States. Unless Jews have a radical shift in outlook.

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