Two years ago, I began to draw attention to this divide within the Democratic Party between DILE (Democrat Independent Liberal Elite) voters and DLWC (Democratic Leaning Working Class) voters. This was during the transition and the earliest days of the Joe Biden presidency.
It began to dawn on me that the Democratic Party was two distinct parties. It is a top-bottom hourglass coalition. The dominant wing of the Democratic Party are affluent, college educated White professionals. These PMCs are concentrated in coastal metros and their inner ring suburbs. They are motivated by social liberalism and issues like climate change. These people at the top of the social and economic pyramid dominate the multiracial working class or the “Hub City Working Class” below them. These two parties care about different issues and come from radically different backgrounds.
As I looked back into the history of the MAGA voters in George W. Bush and Obama eras, I began to think of MAGA as being like an iceberg of DLWC voters that had broken away from the Democratic base during the Obama years and floated over and crashed into the Republican primaries when those voters backed Trump. This explained the unhinged rage at Trump. I speculated that the process wasn’t complete and that eventually the Democratic coalition would split down the middle because of the class divide.
Two years later, it is coming true. If you turn on CNN or MSNBC, the PMCs who run the Democratic Party (i.e., the DILEs or shitlib faction) are obsessed with 1/6 or climate change or gun control and abortion or “trans.” They have Ukraine flags in their Twitter profiles. Meanwhile, this is the reality for the DLWC wing of the party which is getting crushed by the increase in the price of everything under Joe Biden:
Those voters are melting away now under pressure at the margins.
The fault line was there five years ago: