In light of these numbers, what is the most explosive thing that could happen that is most likely to trigger a wave of political violence?
“Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence, has conducted half a dozen nationwide polls since the Jan. 6 attack and has repeatedly found the same results: that between 15 million and 20 million American adults believe that violence would be justified to return Mr. Trump to office.
This kind of “community support,” Mr. Pape said, can normalize violence.
“Community support lowers the threshold at which volatile people will take action,” Mr. Pape said, “because he or she will tell themselves that people in the community actually support them. Maybe it’s only 10 percent of the community, but that’s still a large group.”
Mr. Pape and other violence researchers often compare conditions in the United States to those of dry forest with lots of combustible material on the ground. All it takes is a spark, like the search of Mar-a-Lago, to ignite the tinder.
With Mr. Trump facing multiple investigations even as he considers yet another run for office, there are many possible sparks that could flare up in the days and weeks ahead.
“We’re in wildfire season,” Mr. Pape said, “and will be for quite some time.”
If you got Merrick Garland and the DOJ to indict and prosecute Trump over 1/6 and it was perceived as a Deep State plot, I would say that is the scenario that is most likely to lead to maximum destabilization. He already has 20 million people like Ricky Shiffer out there who are ready to use violence.
Note: BTW, the FBI was out to get him. He wasn’t paranoid. The incident reminds me of the fighting that started in Bleeding Kansas when the most extreme people on both sides went at it before the main event.