Senate Races Are Important

October 30, 2022 Hunter Wallace 2022 Midterms, Conservatism, Politics, Populists, Progressives 33

I’ve developed a new interest in margins over the past few years.

It turns out that there is a major difference between a Supreme Court with a 5-4 conservative majority with Anthony Kennedy as the swing vote and a 6-3 Supreme Court with Brett Kavanaugh as the pivotal swing vote. A combination of electing Trump as president in 2016 and pivotal Senate victories in the 2014 and 2016 elections shifted the balance of power in that institution. Contentious culture war issues like abortion and affirmative action which have been in a stalemate for my entire adult lifetime are now suddenly being resolved. The gridlock in the Supreme Court seems to have finally broken.

The fate of the Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies have all hinged on the Senate filibuster. Neither party has had the 60 votes necessary in the Senate to overcome a filibuster to pass their agenda. The Biden presidency has essentially been the Joe Manchin / Kyrsten Sinema presidency. Nothing has gotten passed through Congress without their support and budget reconciliation rules. The same was true of the Trump presidency. John McCain, for example, singlehandedly defeated Trump’s attempt to repeal Obamacare. Narrow margins in the Senate and the filibuster empower the most moderate elected senators of both parties to play spoiler and block the agenda that is supported by the majority of their party.

It is conceivable though that this gridlock could come to an end. This is how it could play out.

As everyone expects, the GOP takes the House in the midterms.

There are no surprises on election night. Mike Lee wins in Utah. Ted Budd wins in North Carolina. Chuck Grassley wins in Iowa. J.D. Vance wins in Ohio. Ron Johnson wins in Wisconsin. Eric Schmitt wins in Missouri. Senate controls hinges on outcomes in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Oz, Walker, Laxalt and Masters win their races which is the current RCP projection.

It looks like 2022 is going to be a red wave year. In such a nasty political environment for Democrats, we should expect a surprise or two. Don Bolduc might win in New Hampshire. Tiffany Smiley might win in Washington. This would produce a 55 seat GOP majority in the Senate.

Dump announces the Revenge Tour shortly after the 2022 midterms. Joe Biden becomes a lame duck president facing a hostile GOP Congress. He continues to go senile. Democrats have to defend 23 Senate seats in the 2024 election. This includes Senate seats in Ohio, Montana, Arizona and West Virginia. Dump is already leading Joe Biden in most 2024 matchup polls. It is conceivable that he could be restored to power in 2025 with a 60 vote Senate majority that could break a Democratic filibuster.

Anyway, we will see if this scenario comes to pass. It will largely depend on how the Senate races break in the midterms. The last three presidents haven’t been able to do jack shit because of the filibuster. Two or three extra Senate seats can make all the difference in the world. Ask Joe Biden.

Note: I’m also keeping a close eye on what happens at the state level. The Supreme Court could also strike down the Voting Rights Act in this term.

33 Comments

  1. I remember when the Republicans had the Presidency, the house and the senate in 2016 and nothing really changed because the dems held everything up with their investigations and hearings the Republicans let them even though they controlled everything.

    Will this time be any different if they control 2 of the 3 branches? That’s the problem with the two party system, it’s always a stalemate because it’s about politics the two parties infighting and making deals instead of what’s best for the country. I don’t think anything has changed in the last 6 years except for maybe a few candidates but they’re in the minority.

    • If memory serves, they had something like 52 Senate seats and everything hinged on 1.) what could pass the House and 2.) what could pass through budget reconciliation. John McCain famously killed the attempt to repeal Obamacare. Congress passed the tax cuts and Trump signed it into law because it was the only thing that Senate Republicans could agree on. Roy Moore also lost his Alabama Senate race in late 2017. Doug Jones won and that was the kiss of death to Trump’s legislative agenda. The window closed in early 2018.

      The Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies have all hinged on the Senate filibuster. Manchin and Sinema have blocked pretty much Biden’s entire agenda. Narrow margins in the Senate also determined the outcome of bills in Obama’s presidency. He got Obamacare passed on a party line vote and that was it

    • The argument is that the people in control of the next GOP majority Congress won’t be the same kind of Republicans as the last time. We’ll see. If McConnell is still the Majority Leader, that will tell you all you need to know in order to predict how things will turn out.

  3. Could you explain how to read the chart in the first tweet you posted? What does “two way democratic vote share” mean?

    • No, rather he could bring peace and prosperity if he is true to his promises, not like the socialists who were elected in Peru and Ecuador – Pedro Castillo and “Lenin” – who turned, or were forced to become capitalists in office.

  5. Voting again for the “least evil” candidates to try to conserve the system? Or maybe voting counterintuitively, for the most evil candidates, to try to make the system collapse? Voting either way can’t change the system. In fact the system thrives on your participation in its “democratic” (s)elections. Without revolution or intervention by some powerful outside force, the system remains strong whether you vote or not.

  6. All big changes, revolutions and other huge things in history happened, because that time was different.

    I think that this time is also different and turning point in history

  7. Unfortunately the main policy the republicans are united on (including many of the maga’s) is privatizing/cutting social security and medicare.

    I think spencer is wrong. The democrat realignment is breaking down as black crime spirals out of control and mere symbolic gestures aren’t enough to satisfy the black vote(yes there’s some movement of black men towards the gop but the vast majority of black voters are frustrated with dems for not being antiwhite enough). They want maximalist “criminal justice reform,” reparations and more explicit antiwhite affirmative action and speech codes… the last two will be thwarted in the short run by the current scotus but it’ll become a new shibboleth for dems moving forward. Generally speaking when shitlibs lose they’ll actually expand their demands- not become more “reasonable.”

    This strategy of always doubling down has historically worked for them- however as they demand elite whites become impacted by their antiwhiteism (and not just the proles) rich elites will back away from the dems.

    This in the short run will seem like a win to many on the right.

    Perhaps they’ll have a wake up call but considering their brains are fried from years of decadence I would bet they’ll simply opt for more classism so they can opt out but throw Whites under the bus as they always have.

    They’ll use white anxiety to get power and will allow for rich whites to protect themselves but will throw the fight or “compromise” when it comes to making sweeping change that would benefit all Americans and not just the richest of the rich.

    Over the next several cycles we’ll see the return of country club republicans along with a heavily inflected libertarian populists bottom. Which will win nothing except for shrinking the government on programs the country clubs republicans already want cut.

    Evan McMullen (the “former” cia agent who ran as a country club republican against trump in ‘16)
    is running against (R) Mike Lee of Utah and shitlibs are backing him instead of trying elect a democrat senator.

    Utah is a unique state that makes it distinct from the rest of the country in many ways. But this is a big litmus test for the gop and shitlibs alike. If Evan McMullen is successful in Utah we’ll see many more country club republicans running in other states and former republicans who switched to dems during trump will find their way back home to the gop.

    This influx of “fiscally conservative, social liberal” republicans will halt the spencerian realignment in its tracks.

    Project Veritas is helping in this regard with there most recent undercover exposes that show dems payrolling maga candidates.

    Project Veritas has done good work, along with shitty work as well… but project veritas started under the karl rove gop and many including james okeef himself would still be comfortable in the old karl rove, mitt romney, john mccain conservativism.

    Center left liberals like bill maher do monologues BEGGING for the old gop. While they dislike them in general they understand they can’t be both the party of tax cuts and the party of aoc dsa’s/blm… they want country club republicans to take the hits of being the “rich man’s” party.

    This allows elite dems to make “compromises” on things they’ve always wanted like tax cuts and entitlement reform without being seen as the bad guy by their own base.

    I suspect the recent project veritas undercover story was coordinated by higher ups in the democrat & republican party.

    Both parties have their small time horizon politicos focused on winning the next election and the big picture thinkers who are steering the party for the long term.

    Higher up dems probably helped facilitate the recent project veritas undercover stings with gop higher ups….

    “Hey look proles the dems want maga! You hate the dems! Don’t play into their hands!! Elect mitt romney to own the libs!!!”

    This may not work and they may not be successful but I definitely see that as the play that’s happening.

    Many of the current republicans establishment & maga are saying they want to cut social security- screwing over elderly whites to pay for Ukraine and more gibs programs geared towards nonwhites.

    The current republicans aren’t united on anything good outside of a few cultural issues, and even those many are squishy on.

    I suggest you split you your vote and vote for R’s who are sincere on cultural issues and vote for D’s who will fight to protect social security.

    If either side receives a super majority they’ll think they can get away with not making major reforms to their parties policy.

    The fact almost all the R’s have committed in pledges to massive social security & Medicare cuts but are not running on it tells me they’ll actually do it if they can

    As of now we’ve seen an okay to bretty good shift in rhetoric from the gop but the policy is still lagging.

    They can’t learn pandering is enough, reward the best of the R’s and vote for D’s who are decent on social security & medicare… if that option isn’t available in your races then only vote for the R’s who think are the best on social issues and leave the rest blank.

    The gop needs to be brought to heel. Give them treats for those who are moving in our direction and punish those who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

    The gop needs to know they’ll only get support if they’re moving towards us and none if they’re merely a shitlib for lower taxes/corporatism.

  8. Do you follow Red Eagle Politics? He strikes a good balance between being positive/energizing and being realistic. I worry that he is a bit too positive though. I’d hate to live through something like the disappointment of the Stolen Election all over again.

    Regarding the Supreme Court, have you listened to Senator Sheldon Whitehouse’s speeches on the “rightwing takeover” over the court, on youtube titled “The Scheme”? As someone who generally pays very little attention to the courts, I found it fascinating.

  9. Both major party Senate candidates in WA state are women; that is disgusting — one of them being the incumbent Patty Murray, a milquetoast woman with a PE degree who has been wasting everyone’s time in Wash DC since 1992, and at 72 y/o she’s running for yet one more six year term — another poster politician for term limits.

  10. The Republicans never fail to fail. Kevin McCarthy, notorious scumbag, is already talking about how maybe, possibly it isn’t a good idea to impeach Dementia Joe: now is not the right time.

    It’s never the right time with the Republicans yet the Democrats didn’t hesitate to impeach Trump simply because they could. Whatever their manifold faults and shortcomings at least the Democrats know what they are about and press whatever advantage they have to the limit every single time. That’s what it takes to win and govern.

    The Republicans just want to please their Chamber of Commerce owners and loot the country on the way down. The Democrats fly their lunatic flags openly, the Republicans fly whatever flag is convenient then stab in the back their voters like clockwork.

    • @12AX7…

      McCarthy & McConnell are some of the very problematic holdovers from the now expiring Post WWII Baby-boom time in history.

      I have little doubt that, with the brief time left to them, they will usually do the wrong thing.

      All we can do is continue to change the culture in such a way as candidates like Vance, Greene, DeSAntis, Boebert, Lake, Mastriani, et al, multiply and create an environment that makes it impossible for these two Blackguards with Scottish names to remain.

      We’ll have to bide our time, as, I think, that time is still 2-4 years off.

  11. 12AX7 says the Republicans never fail to fail. That’s a good one. True,too. I just might steal that and shitpost it around.

    • I can see them winning a historic 60 vote majority in the Senate and then blowing it because a single cuck like Mitt Romney plays spoiler

      • With all due respect Hunter, if God intervened directly, like a healing miracle from the New Testament and gave the Republicans 100 out of 100 Senate seats, 435 out of 435 House seats, 50 out of 50 governorships, 50 out of 50 state legislatures and all 9 Supreme Court seats, the Republicans would screw it up. They can’t help themselves, they are Cuck Central. They are in thrall to the Chamber of Commerce types, thirty pieces of silver is what they believe in, nothing else.

        • @12AX7…

          That’s why redrawing this country’s map is the only ultimate way, for real reform is absolutely impossible in this current racket.

          As to being in thrall to pieces of silver – we cannot get out of that, for those types follow you wherever you go.

          • “…That’s why redrawing this country’s map is the only ultimate way, for real reform is absolutely impossible in this current racket….”

            This is not true. It’s a lie that we have to have a civil war or break the country apart to get our way. With a majority, we can change the rules for voting and change the rules for Senate representation in the States to be “regional” based, just like the Federal government. This would completely collapse the ruling power of the left in every State by the big city centers in each State, which was put into place by an illegal court decision. With this, we can rule them and tell them what to do. We don’t have to put up with this. I go over this in exhausting detail in this comment and links from it.

            https://occidentaldissent.com/2022/08/29/brion-mcclanahan-the-constitution-is-broken/#comment-3636806

            I see some asking for a post by me. Just read the links. It’s all there. I have a mass of comments on this you can find by searching for “illegal court” “Sam J.” and/or “Sam J.” “regional” “Senate”

            I keep repeating this because I have seen, personally, Hasbara, known Hasbara, who are calling for civil war. Not saying anyone is a Hasbara but I know they are posting this stuff. The Jews would love nothing else better than to have the USA a big ass Ukraine where they can bring in troops from all over the world to murder us all like Ukraine. They desperately want a civil war. If we get control over the voting and refuse to let the mob vote and take away the big city centers power, it’s all over for them. They will eventually be thrown out of the country if they are lucky. If not…all the damage they have done, could be retribution.

            By using the present constitutional laws we already have in place, we take away any legitimacy from those that will disagree or try to say “they” need to secede. If they do so, we should send forces into the State and hang the ring leaders, while leaving everyone else alone. We do this with the present laws we have and with the first civil war as an examole, and there’s no way anyone trying to secede is going to get enough troops to do a damn thing. The know they will all be hung or shot. No question. Fat chance to get the Nat. Guard to disobey orders from Washington. Not happening. So then, they are trapped.

            We can rule them and they can not do a damn thing about it if we forcefully persist in enforcing the law. Any rioters we warn them once, then load them all up and put them to work terraforming the desert west, (see permaculture, terracing, etc.). Call it the gulag and make damn sure they stay there. [You would not believe the complete change in desert areas with a little terracing, planting select plants and some birds to distribute seeds and poop. It’s amazing. People have gone to Jordan and taken hard packed salted desert and in a few years they are growing date palms and have all sorts of wildlife. It’s astounding. China has also done some of this. It’s amazing with a little help what mother nature can do.]

            Could do the same for all these vibrants. Have them grow their own food and build all their own shelter. It would be cheap compared to what we do today and finally, we would have peace in the cities. People could go about their business without fear. It would spur a great economic revival just to crash the pol pot levels of crime in this country.

          • > I keep repeating this because I have seen, personally, Hasbara, known Hasbara, who are calling for civil war. Not saying anyone is a Hasbara but I know they are posting this stuff. The Jews would love nothing else better than to have the USA a big ass Ukraine where they can bring in troops from all over the world to murder us all like Ukraine.

            Excellent point. It’s an error to think secession is the magic pill to cure the problem. I think HW has touched upon the most important aspect of the problem, which is the fact that a large percentile of whites are active enemies of their own people throughout the west. The virtue-signaling of various Church of Woke dogmas is how goodhwites advance to stay ahead of the trailer-trash, who themselves are too often mired in self-destructive behaviors like fentanyl, massive divorce and promiscuity, etc. Whites overall are in no way ready to pull off something like secession. Also gathering together of whites who oppose Globo-Pedo just makes an easy target for those like Nudelman who will not hesitate to employ nuclear, biologigcal and chemical warfare.

  12. As someone who grew up in a time when the Senate was the most powerful aspect of governance, I am not much impressed with the senates of recent decades.

    One particular area at which the senate used to be good, and which was vital for the health of the country, but, which they hardly do anymore, is oversight – particularly on unelected government departments.

    Nothing exemplifies this corrupt cowardice better than the outgoing senator of my state – the questionable Richard Burr.

    As the chair to the Intelligence Committee, Burr is more a CIA/NSA/FBI cheerleader than someone who was supposed to be calling them to task for their constant violations of national and international law.

    That said, the Senate, still is a hindrance to unchecked Executive Power, something which has got to annoy the WEF/Bilderburg group – they who went to such unbelievable lengths to get their man in the oval office in 2020.

    So, yes, I am happy that the senate is likely to have 53-55 Republican senators, even though Collins, of Maine, and Murkowski, of Alaska, are only ‘GOP’ in the slimmest sense.

    Hopefully, they’ll remove McConnell from leadership and replace him with a J.D. Vance, and then spend two years very publically investigating Democrat larceny of recent years.

    • Hello Ivan;

      ” . . . the questionable Richard Burr.” Indeed. Does the Deep State have blackmail on the “Honorable” (sic) Mr. Richard Burr? The CIA/NSA/FBI have dossiers on everyone of any importance in the country and that would certainly include members of Congress.

      Has the “Honorable” (sic) Mr. Richard Burr done any insider trading like the rest of Congress? It’s still illegal, even for the loathsome scumbags in Congress and in theory, they could be prosecuted.

      That is but one example of how the Deep State controls people, selective prosecution. If any of the readers of OD were to do insider trading, jail and ruinous fines would await. There is one set of laws for the “Honorable” (sic) Mr. Richard Burr types and another set of laws for everyone else.

  13. Too all those good ole rebels, in michigan and ohio, Vote for Miss Tudor Dixon, for governor of michigan and vote for JD. Vance for Ohio Senator, They need our Votes, let’s be there for our people……the people of michigan gave you a chance gretchen….
    You blew it……..REPENT gretchen, I sure hope michigan voters don’t, but the Lord will give you another chance……..

    .

    • Yes, Dear Terry, when I see that Governor Whitmer has as much or more support than Miss Dixon, I have to wonder who these Wolverines are, or are they figments of the pollsters’ imaginations?

      • Ivan Turgenev she has the support majority wise of the people in the metropolitan areas, miss Dixon has the red state people of michigan on her side, I like miss Dixon a whole lot better, than her opponent, but in reality, it would be a major upset, if Miss Dixon won, I will vote for Miss Dixon for sure……….Ivan don’t be surprised too see a G.Newsome, G,whitmer ticket in 2024

  14. Well, Patti Murray could lose the Washington Senate race and no doubt they would just do what they did in the 2000s. Endless recounts in which thousands of ballots keep being “found” in rotten districts of Seattle until the results change and the democrat is ahead by a few hundred votes. Then suddenly no more recounts. They blatantly stole the election from the republicans for governor and senate back in the mid 2000s, same crap they pulled with Al Franken in MN. All just a dress rehearsal for what they did on a national scale in 2020. There is no excuse for the results not being counted by midnight in every precinct across the country. The only reason do drag things on till the wee hours of the morning…and now for days afterwards is fraud. If you don’t have every last ballot locked in a box by 7pm when the polls close you are too incompetent or crooked to be allowed to run a precinct. Anything not in that box by that time should be assumed to be fraudulent and thrown out.

    • @Nightowl…

      Yes, though I know little of Washington State, I have to imagine that, in terms of political integrity, The Left in Seattle will act like The Left in Chicago or Philadelphia and cheat,cheat, cheat.

      Hope., I’m wrong, though…

  15. Look how the left came in and tyrannically micromanaged elections in the south even to this day with the so called civil rights act? Why can’t the GOP do the same to the democrats in these rotten ghetto precincts where all this fraud occurs? These ghetto elections need to be put under a microscope and stop the massive amount of fraud you get in the post industrial dystopias in the Rust Belt that have been abandoned by whites to lawless no man’s lands where the blacks do whatever they want…including stealing our elections. We need “stop and frisk” type control of our elections there as well.

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