??Brasil ?? – resultados al 100% escrutado— EM-electomania.es (@electo_mania) October 31, 2022
? Lula 50,9% (60.345.999 votos)
? Bolsonaro 49,1% (58.206.354 votos)
Lula se convierte en el Presidente del país que mayor número de votos ha logrado.https://t.co/EqNRLwPZK9 #Eleicoes2022 #Eleicao2022 pic.twitter.com/iZfncs5ZJX
I was shocked when Bolsonaro won in Brazil in 2018.
I was surprised again when he made it to the runoff with Lula when all the media polls had him losing by a landslide. In the end, Bolsonaro lost to Lula by less than 2 points. Bolsonaro’s party won a bunch of races down ballot. The outcome is Brazil’s version of the 2020 election in the United States.
Two quick observations:
1. The fact that Bolsonaro outperformed the polls and finished so strongly and that his party made gains ought to put to rest the “demographics is destiny” myth. Even with Brazil’s demographics, elections are still fiercely competitive. Bolsonarism isn’t going anywhere.
2. As with Trump and Trumpism, Bolsonaro and Bolsonarism will likely surge right back in the wake of Lula returning to power in Brazil. Something will come along and tip the balance of power.
Sure, it is a setback, but Lula is one of the most well known and popular figures in Brazil and he barely won. We seem to be entering an era of bitter, competitive, high turnout elections which swing back and forth.
Note: The liberal fantasy that Trump and Trumpism haven’t become a permanent feature of our politics will be exploded next week.