Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* with a minority of the vote.— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) April 4, 2022
If you want to help stop that, come check out our job board! https://t.co/2xKqs6nT3e pic.twitter.com/cK1ojkyYII
Real Clear Politics just moved Washington state’s Senate race from “Leans D” to “Toss up.”— Poletico ???? (@Poletico_News) October 30, 2022
And new poll from @NRSC/Moore Info Group (R) found that Tiffany Smiley (R) statistically tied (46%) with incumbent senator Patty Murray (D-inc).#Washington #democrats #Midterms2022 pic.twitter.com/9ValuSfwgW
BREAKING?Massive Poll in New Hampshire’s Senate Race.— Wendell Husebø (@WendellHusebo) October 28, 2022
In one month, Gen. Bolduc has gained 11 points, trying the race.
45% GOP Gen. Bolduc
45% Democrat Hassan
3.1 Point margin of error https://t.co/RfOXfk4h6f
I’ve developed a new interest in margins over the past few years.
It turns out that there is a major difference between a Supreme Court with a 5-4 conservative majority with Anthony Kennedy as the swing vote and a 6-3 Supreme Court with Brett Kavanaugh as the pivotal swing vote. A combination of electing Trump as president in 2016 and pivotal Senate victories in the 2014 and 2016 elections shifted the balance of power in that institution. Contentious culture war issues like abortion and affirmative action which have been in a stalemate for my entire adult lifetime are now suddenly being resolved. The gridlock in the Supreme Court seems to have finally broken.
The fate of the Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies have all hinged on the Senate filibuster. Neither party has had the 60 votes necessary in the Senate to overcome a filibuster to pass their agenda. The Biden presidency has essentially been the Joe Manchin / Kyrsten Sinema presidency. Nothing has gotten passed through Congress without their support and budget reconciliation rules. The same was true of the Trump presidency. John McCain, for example, singlehandedly defeated Trump’s attempt to repeal Obamacare. Narrow margins in the Senate and the filibuster empower the most moderate elected senators of both parties to play spoiler and block the agenda that is supported by the majority of their party.
It is conceivable though that this gridlock could come to an end. This is how it could play out.
As everyone expects, the GOP takes the House in the midterms.
There are no surprises on election night. Mike Lee wins in Utah. Ted Budd wins in North Carolina. Chuck Grassley wins in Iowa. J.D. Vance wins in Ohio. Ron Johnson wins in Wisconsin. Eric Schmitt wins in Missouri. Senate controls hinges on outcomes in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Oz, Walker, Laxalt and Masters win their races which is the current RCP projection.
It looks like 2022 is going to be a red wave year. In such a nasty political environment for Democrats, we should expect a surprise or two. Don Bolduc might win in New Hampshire. Tiffany Smiley might win in Washington. This would produce a 55 seat GOP majority in the Senate.
Dump announces the Revenge Tour shortly after the 2022 midterms. Joe Biden becomes a lame duck president facing a hostile GOP Congress. He continues to go senile. Democrats have to defend 23 Senate seats in the 2024 election. This includes Senate seats in Ohio, Montana, Arizona and West Virginia. Dump is already leading Joe Biden in most 2024 matchup polls. It is conceivable that he could be restored to power in 2025 with a 60 vote Senate majority that could break a Democratic filibuster.
Anyway, we will see if this scenario comes to pass. It will largely depend on how the Senate races break in the midterms. The last three presidents haven’t been able to do jack shit because of the filibuster. Two or three extra Senate seats can make all the difference in the world. Ask Joe Biden.
Note: I’m also keeping a close eye on what happens at the state level. The Supreme Court could also strike down the Voting Rights Act in this term.