Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* with a minority of the vote.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) April 4, 2022
If you want to help stop that, come check out our job board! https://t.co/2xKqs6nT3e pic.twitter.com/cK1ojkyYII
The 2024 map is so bad for the Democrats that according to the pollster David Shor, in a neutral environment Republicans could wind up with 57 seats in the Senate. https://t.co/phZdGrsqiy
— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) November 11, 2020
David Shor, one of Democrats' most respected data scientists:"Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, the 2024 outcome could be Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, WH] with a minority of the vote." https://t.co/ON95dvAcuE
— Bilgehan Alagöz (@Balagoz) April 19, 2022
'Senate Democrats could win 51 percent of the two-party vote in the next two elections and end up with only 43 seats in the Senate.' Interview with David Shor in The New York Times: https://t.co/X9nJkUayuc
— David Smith (@SmithInAmerica) October 9, 2021
Read this by David Shor. He predicts that by 2024 Democrats will only have 43 seats in the Senate. https://t.co/ctr1bTLdKT pic.twitter.com/dZSZBg7E56
— Old Whig. ?????????? (@aClassicLiberal) July 17, 2020
Countdown to the Democrats' doomsday: Over the weekend, young Democratic strategist David Shor issued an apocalyptic warning to his followers, arguing that the "modal outcome" of his modeling for the Senate showed Republicans picking up .. via @TheWeek https://t.co/HAwYwJ7KB2
— Jeffrey Levin ?? (@jilevin) April 11, 2022
Is there a persuasive argument for cucks like Joe O’Dea?
“Colorado could have a competitive U.S. Senate race on its hands.
That’s the judgment of the election forecasters at the Cook Political Report, which on Thursday moved the state one notch to the right – from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
Still a step away from toss-up status, the rating shift reflects increased attention by both national parties on Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet’s bid for a third term against Republican Joe O’Dea, a wealthy construction company CEO and first-time candidate. …”
Colorado is still a very outside shot at a Senate pickup, but these things become much more plausible in wave election years.
“Real Clear Politics has shifted its prediction of a hotly contested Senate race in Colorado from leaning toward Democratic victory to a “toss up” as several high profile races across the country continue to tighten with Republicans hoping to take back control of the chamber next week.
On its updated election prediction map, Real Clear Politics now shows the race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet and his challenger, Republican construction magnate Joe O’Dea, is classified as a “toss up” after previously being viewed as “Leans Dem.”
“Voters are angry and they know who caused the problem — they’re fed up and eager for change,” Joshua Marin-Mora, deputy press secretary for the O’Dea campaign, posted on Twitter in response to the news on Friday. …”
Yes, think back to the 2014 midterms.
Cory Gardner was elected to the Senate from Colorado.
The GOP won a bunch of Senate races and took control over the Senate in 2014. Then Scalia died. Then Merrick Garland was nominated to the Supreme Court by Barack Obama.
If the GOP hadn’t won the Senate in the 2014 midterms by electing cucks like Cory Gardner, Merrick Garland would be sitting on the Supreme Court. Evangelicals might have been less motivated to vote for Trump in the 2016 election without the fate of the Supreme Court hanging in the balance. Hillary might have won the 2016 election and stacked the Supreme Court with three partisan Democrats in the mold of Ketanji Brown Jackson. It didn’t happen because candidates like Cory Gardner won marginal races like the Colorado Senate race and confirmed Trump’s court appointments.
Cory Gardner voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Barrett voted to strike down Roe v. Wade. The Supreme Court is poised to strike down affirmative action next summer. The Voting Rights Act is also on the chopping block now. This whole series of unlikely events which broke the stalemate on the Supreme Court was set in motion by winning Senate seats in unlikely places.
Anyway, I wouldn’t have found this to be a compelling and persuasive argument a year ago, but now that Roe v. Wade has been struck down and affirmative action is set to go down next I have changed my tune. I also have a far greater interest in Senate races after watching Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema wield so much power over Joe Biden’s agenda. All the power in the system is concentrated in Senate. The Senate is where shit happens or doesn’t happen. The president’s wish list either lives or dies in the Senate. Joe Biden’s only victories are 1.) what the Supreme Court was willing to give him and 2.) what got past the Senate filibuster.
If there is a large enough red wave in the Senate on Tuesday to carry O’Dea to victory in Colorado, the next president could conceivably start the 2024 cycle with the House and Senate and as many as 56 Senate seats (New Hampshire, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia flipping Republican). That’s only four seats short of the number needed to overcome a Democrat filibuster.
Could Trump win in 2024 and pick up four more Senate seats? Yes, that could easily happen.
The hilarious chain of unintended consequences which ricochet through our politics for decades could go something like this: moderate voters in Colorado and Maine vote for Cory Gardner and Susan Collins in the 2014 midterms, Gardner and Collins vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the ideological balance of the Supreme Court shifts to the Right empowering Clarence Thomas, Uncle Tom takes a sledgehammer to Roe v. Wade thereby ending a woman’s right to choose, the Voting Rights Act and affirmative action are struck down, Georgia becomes a Jim Eagle state, American Democracy dies as coastal libs become a marginalized regional party for generations like the South after Reconstruction.
Note: I’m half joking and playing into the liberal hysteria and half serious about this. I think a 60/40 Senate is within reach by 2025. If O’Dea wins on Tuesday, it is much more likely.
https://cjtackett.medium.com/the-christian-nationalism-scale-and-what-it-means-6f2969c6dd4e
Mr. Griffin if I could make a request for a commentary on an article I would think you would like the stats that this article brings.
The governor of Colorado is a homosexual Jew — he was one of a number of governors who released felons from prison due to COVID (there is no group of people whose ‘social contacts’ are easier to control), one of whom then commited a homicide (link) — so given that Coloradans elected a homosexual Jew, I would not be surprised at any outcome in the Senate election there — Colorado is another state where densely populated urban areas have outsized influence on statewide elections.
And by the way, the parolee was a black male (surprising, I know), and he killed a young white woman (link) — I’m sure hardly anyone in America outside of Denver heard about this crime.
>Is there a persuasive argument for cucks like Joe O’Dea?
Just in case this wasn’t a rhetorical question: No.
Disagree.
Putting up with Cory Gardner for six years was worth shifting the balance of power on the Supreme Court for a generation.
“Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* WITH A MINORITY OF THE VOTE.” [Emphasis]
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor)
The Tribe really hates that Electoral College, doesn’t it…for the very reason it exists. Get wrecked, shitlibs.