There was a Red Wave.
We crushed the Democrats in Alabama.
Republicans are currently winning the national popular vote. Democrats lost support across the board in the exit polls and only improved with their liberal base.
“US voters did not deliver the red wave some Republicans had predicted and which Democrats had feared. As of early Wednesday morning, CNN had not projected which party would lead either the House or the Senate. …
What’s below is a look at two very different midterm elections and who showed up for a blue wave in 2018, when Democrats picked up a net of 40 seats, and what’s shaping up to be a relatively close election in 2022. It is a breakdown of some preliminary results of CNN’s exit poll of pre-election and Election Day voters. …”
Look at Independents though.
The pre-election polls had Republicans decisively winning Independents.
Basically, Democrats caught up with Republicans in enthusiasm due to all the fearmongering about the End of Democracy and Independents broke nearly 50/50, which resulted in a wash.
The election looks great though on paper.
The Blacks trended Republican.
“Latinx” voters trended Republican.
Whites trended Republican.
WTF happened then?
Democrats are winning a bunch of races by narrow or narrower margins.
The House is already extremely gerrymandered. The country is culturally balkanized. A massive redistricting screw up in New York by Democrats is the reason why Republicans have won so many races there. Suburban Independents are ticket splitting everywhere like in Sununu/Bolduc or Kemp/Walker or Mastriano/Oz or Lake/Masters or DeWine/Vance. There is also the same chaos that we saw in 2020 with mail-in ballots with different swathes of votes being counted at different times resulting in Republican or Democrat candidates that start way ahead only to fade over time. Tim Ryan, for example, was doing great in Ohio only to lose to JD Vance by around 7 points. It looked like Vance was a goner, but that was because mail-in ballots were tabulated first and election day votes were counted last in Ohio.
Kay Ivey (2018) – 59.6%
Kay Ivey (2022) – 67.4%
Aunt Bee is winning by an over 2/3rds margin statewide.
In my home county, Aunt Bee won Barbour County, AL with 51.7% of the vote in the 2018 midterms. She is winning Barbour County, AL by 59.5% in the 2022 midterms. In Tuscaloosa County, AL, she has gone from losing by a single vote to winning by 13,907 votes.
Here is the shift in Alabama from 2020 to 2022:
There wasn’t any Roevember in Alabama. Quite the opposite.
If it feels like nothing has changed, it is because the Red Wave in Alabama simply put Alabama Democrats in an even deeper hole with Republicans winning by wider margins.
Do you see the Black Belt?
That’s where I live in the Deep South.
In the Alabama governor race, Tuscaloosa County, Marengo County and Russell County flipped and went Republican. Kay Ivey crushed the vote in Tuscaloosa County and Lee County which are the home of the University of Alabama and Auburn University.
Lee County (2018) – Ivey wins by 59.4%
Lee County (2022) – Ivey wins by 67.8%
Tuscaloosa County (2018) – Ivey loses by a single vote with 50%
Tuscaloosa County (2022) – Ivey wins by 62.1%
Alabama is a racially diverse, but culturally conservative state.
After banning abortion in Alabama, Kay Ivey won in a landslide. She probably won more black and Hispanic votes. Macon County, AL, which is the home of Tuskegee University, is one of the blackest counties in the country. Kay Ivey won 19% of the vote there in 2018 and 23.2% of the vote in 2022.