If your pre-election bingo card had a roughly R+4 national House vote and the House still not callable by the Friday after the election…congrats, you win.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 11, 2022
There was a Red Wave.
Nationwide, Republicans are on track to win the popular vote by 4 points, which is exactly what the polls predicted. This simply didn’t translate into large gains in Congress because of cultural balkanization, gerrymandering and the way Independents in key swing states voted because of millions of dollars in negative campaign ads.
“BOSTON — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) bounded up to the stage in a high-ceilinged ballroom in Copley Square on Tuesday to the loud cheers of an ebullient crowd.
“Wow, what a night,” she said. Results were still being tallied across the country, but in Massachusetts, Democrats had cause to rejoice. “We can see our future,” Warren said. “It is bright, and it is blue.”
Heading into Tuesday’s midterms, New England was considered a region where Republicans might make crucial inroads, potentially picking up key seats in a Democratic stronghold on the road to a broader nationwide victory.
Instead, the result here looked more like a blue wave. Republicans lost three House races that were considered competitive in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Hampshire, as well as a similar Senate race in New Hampshire. …”
Culture is king.
As we have always stressed here, there is no such thing as the White vote. White people who live in different regions of the country are culturally different and have opposing values.
Cultural polarization between Whites dominates our politics. Non-Whites play supporting roles in the conflict. Fundamentals like crime, homelessness, inflation and other negative trends really don’t matter at the end of the day.
Look at how White voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, California and Colorado responded to the George Floyd riots, COVID insanity, record gas prices and a drug, crime and homelessness epidemic. It literally couldn’t get worse. They rewarded the people who presided over all that and voted for them. Such a result is unimaginable in other parts of the country.