Peter Turchin: Elites and the Path To Political Disintegration

I’m currently reading Peter Turchin’s new book End Times and will have a review up shortly.

Back in 2020, I read Peter Turchin’s previous book Ages of Discord and was impressed by this chart of what he calls the Political Stress Index. Obviously, it has gotten much worse under Joe Biden. Rampant inflation has been grinding down well being. Political stress has reached the point where Trump has been arrested three times and faces life in prison. Great Power conflict has broken out in Ukraine.

Popular immiseration. Elite overproduction. Radicalization of the public. Elite infighting. Mounting fiscal instability. Geopolitical moves. Institutions losing their legitimacy. This is the recipe for revolutions and civil wars. The pot is now boiling in a way that no one alive today has ever seen.

Note: Also, if you buy into what Neil Howe is saying, we have a peace-bred elder generation in charge that is uncompromising, blind to reality and takes stability for granted.


  1. You have to burn it all down in order to build CCCP back even worse.
    Property is theft, comrade, you’ll own nothing and like it.
    No Great Reset Leap Forward without WWIII and CBDC.
    No vote on it in muh democracy, serf peasant.

      • This Turchin character started out studying insect socities. Then Turchin came up with the bright idea that insect socities were similar to human society. Well, maybe Jewish society, and Muslim society, and Roman Catholic society are similar to insect socities in that they are cults i.e. the infallible Pope as the Queen Bee, or the Queen Ant. LOL.

      • @HJK…

        Yews, Absolutely- because, as you may know, the USSR had a constitution of positive liberties, or, that is to say, a contract of what the government was required to provide it’s citizens.

        Particularly smalltown and rural areas benefitted under the Soviet Union, areas which have been absolutely devastated since the fall of the USSR, and nothing Czar Vlad has done, much good,m has done anything to change this sad story.

        We, on the other hand, have a constitution of negative liberties, or, that is to say, a compact with it’s citizens of what it WON’T do to it’s citizens.

        And, given how lawless the United States’ Government currently is, can you imagine it under a Judeo-Bolshevik style constitution?

        Why, it would have forced poison vaccines on all of us, for one.

        No, I do not wish to trade places with the Soviet Union, and, if I ever doubted that ( I never have) I sure would not doubt that now.

        Big government has many values, but, in the end, the price is too high, because of the nature of Man.

  2. The disproportionate wealth gap in America may have exceeded the age of the “Robber Barons.” The have nots are very aware of the haves this time around, therefore, the wealthy elites will have their gated community security systems tested, after the inevitable economic collapse that is getting closer and closer by the day.

    Anyway, here’s hoping that some of those gilded elites get their just desserts, before they have time to bugout to New Zealand.

  3. Hunter, thank you for your analysis of Howe and Turchin’s books. I think that the most frightening point you make is our elder generation of elites taking stability for granted. I do not know precisely what horrors we will have to endure, but I think that a common sentiment expressed by those who make it through to the other side will be “We never thought it could happen here.”

  4. Think of it this way. American public schools are gung hoe over STEM (Science, Technology, Enginering Math) courses. Every school must offer STEM courses. But what if after high school STEM students enroll in college and major in one of the 4 STEM subjects. And then they graduate and corporate American ignores than and hires Indians instead because they work cheaper. Now you have a surplus of angry, bitter, technological elites.

  5. The system is sustainable because the wealthy enable the system to always reward and protect them no matter what. It is a system build on exploitation and creative capital. Just look at California for example. Looking from afar you would think California is a nightmare with its homelessness, crime, unrelenting immigration, regulations, and cost of living. However they are still the largest economy in the United States, they still have commanding power over the technology sector, agriculture, and entertainment. California’s economy is so large that it is the 5th largest economy in the entire world, by itself. I’m sure if you are very wealthy, California is a paradise to live in, as long as you stick to the high income areas of the state, which are plentiful. The same could be similarly said of New York.

    You have a strange situation in California of a place with a class structure of either rich or poor, the middle class is almost non-existent except to fill critical roles such as teachers, police, firefighters, civil servants, etc. who live in communal housing…i.e. they either have long commutes living out in the country or they live in homes they share with other families. Despite California’s many and steep problems, their system works to exclusively benefit the wealthy who can afford the taxes, real estate, and numerous regulations.

    America is divided by zip code. What zip code you live in determines what kind of America you live in. There are many parts of America that look worse than Afghanistan and then there are many parts of America that look like a secluded paradise that you are lucky to gaze your eyes upon. I could literally drive two miles from my house and see a long street that is a homeless encampment with half the homes abandoned and the other half of the homes falling apart with bars on the windows. I could also drive two miles from my house in another direction to a different zip code and see pristine multi-million dollar mansions with a good police presence, well-manicured lawns, beautiful gardens, where people dress appropriately, and stress seems non-existent.

    • California’s economy is larger than Russia! When these shitlibs boast about the great economic power of New York and California but then talk about how they want to shut down power plants, prevent industry, mining, manufacturing, and even close down farms, you start to realize just how serious the fiat dollar delusion has gotten. Sure, it’s not a delusion that you can buy things with dollars.

      How long before Ukraine collapses, what then? We don’t know, but everything about the dollar system is the same way. “The system sustains itself” – we’ve never had people this fucking stupid, obnoxious and demented running things. And you’ll notice Leftists are proud to be from blue states because they’re so “advanced.”

    • >The system is sustainable

      Turchin’s argument isn’t that inequality causes instability. He observes that peasant and slave revolts almost always fail. Instead, he highlights two factors, harmless by themselves, which are highly combustible as a compound.

      The first factor is elite overproduction. This happens when wealth is not stable, undergoing a process of increased concentration into ever-rarified forms. It is like a game of musical chairs among elite aspirants where the number of losers increases. The second factor is immiseration among the majority. This doesn’t mean being poor but losing ground.

      Together, these two phenomena create a big incentive for the unhappy aspirants in the lesser elite — people like Cromwell, Napoleon, Caesar, and Trump — to mobilize the immiserated against the other elites. It is like a chain reaction where elites stop obeying their norms. This chaos Turchin calls End Times. It ends when either the wealth pump is turned off or the elites are decimated, a process that can take up to a century.

    • If you are White and wealthy and live in California, particularly southern California it’s like living next to a volcano. You get the warmth from the volcano and great views and fresh breezes but someday it’s going to explode and incinerate you and yours. Whites are a distinct and disliked minority in southern California, the one group it’s safe to mock and discriminate against with governmental approval. All others are off limits, even particularly nasty Moslems.

      That is what a California paradise for wealthy Whites is like now and it’s unsustainable. As long as the system keeps functioning money buys insulation from hideous minority types, bums and assorted wackos. When there is another national crisis (there is always another crisis) such as the 1973 oil embargo, the 2008 financial crisis, or perhaps a defeat from China over Taiwan the system will collapse, there is no resiliency or backup plan either.

      A collapse would take the form of immediate shortages of medicines, fuel and food, intermittent shutdowns of banking and credit cards (cash would be king), utilities failing and falling into disrepair, sky high prices for whatever is available and a breakdown of whatever fragile order remains. Ironically, the wogs would immediately look to hated Whites to restore things to pre-crisis conditions. Faith in “the Government” to ride to the rescue would be dashed as things go into cluster fuck mode and stay there. Naturally, Whites would get the blame while the hideous government at all levels would be utterly dependent on gullible Whites to fix what can be fixed and restore things to a semblance of civilisation.

      It is best for Whites to be far away from the diversity when the wheels come off, which is not the situation in southern California. Never promote violence, cause trouble like Jan. 6th or interfere with the Government, which is what the U.S. Government wants and actively promotes. Prepare now to be self-sufficient so as not to depend upon a government which wants to replace you. The system is irreformable and unsustainable, something is going to break, probably next year and Dementia Joe and his sidekick, Cackling Kamala will be the ones at least nominally in control. Something to think about, no?

      • “It is best for Whites to be far away from the diversity when the wheels come off”.

        I think most people want the best bang for their buck. People want to live in the safest, most pleasant places possible while spending the least amount of money possible. At the same time there are factors such as having access to contemporary amenities and good urban jobs.

        I live in the suburbs outside a midsize city, a large house in a middle class neighborhood within a slummy town in the Deep South. My biggest nuisance is my redneck old White neighbor who insists on driving through my property and operating loud power equipment on a daily basis, he also does not take care of his own property which looks like a meth house. He throws trash and junk all over his backyard and he dresses and behaves like a character out of the film Deliverance.
        If I could, I would live out in the country with at least 5 acres of land where nobody could bother me but still have access to basic amenities. I think that’s why the South is so appealing to people is because you can buy cheap land and live off grid with having no one to bother you.

  6. Why would the left hate Trump, when Trump is just another kosher con in ‘national populist’ garb?
    The answer is, they, the ones at the very top controlling things, don’t hate him.
    In fact they’re buddy buddy.
    Trump is one of them, all billionaires are.
    You don’t get to be that big without compromising yourself on camera, if you catch my drift, that’s what guys like Epstein are for.
    This is all just political theatre.
    At some point tho they may get the masses killing each other over their favorite celebritards, idols and symbols.
    You need to kill off several million young, uppity men once in a while, otherwise they may come for the billionaires, so you get them to kill each other, and that’s how the game is played.
    They could kill millions of uppity, military aged men in a war with China or Russia too.
    When all else fails, take em to war.
    The globalists control everything, all nation states, all political parties, certainly all the major ones if not all the minor ones too, it’s all a farce, illusory, elites have been playing this game for years.
    Trump isn’t going to jail, even if they say he’s in there, it probably won’t be him.
    If they decide to get Americans killing each other, the outcome will be decided, as in the WWE.
    They will probably select the left to be the winners, that seems to be who the elites want ultimately.
    Then they can bring in their great reset without any young, red blooded americans in the way.
    I’m just saying look out, you’re putting your hope in these billionaires, in these rich and powerful conservative inc institutions who pose as nationalists and populists, promise the moon and deliver next to nothing, you guys are all getting played imo.

  7. We are in “civil war” mode. It is just a matter of exactly how much the volume of violence is measured. See for example the black riot in New York over free Game Consoles. The extralegal arrests of Trump is the other end of the gauge of violence and the Xbox riot is the street level measure.

    When I write civil war I mean something akin to race war. Joy Ried isn’t wrong about demographics (race war) but her pointing it out is her mistake. Whites ought to be kept in the dark by left wing commenters if the replacement is to continue. Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town” is essentially a white battle cry as pathetic as it is as a token cultural gesture. It’s a form of noticing replacement. If not acting decisively it’s good to have a few folk songs to hum along to before the pandemonium starts.

  8. Studies have shown that Americans who were born into a certain class 200 years ago have descendents who are still in that class today. Wealth and social status are largely inherited, even in so-called democracies.

  9. THE PITH…

    At the core of all these problems is one central thing : Americans began to believe, somewhere in the 20th century, that we could be anything we wanted, do anything we wanted.

    This is essentially a Jewish/New England Yankee message, and, while I certainly appreciate the optimism and gusto for life of this philosophy, the reality is that we have been encouraged to play tennis without a net.

    The game of Tennis does not work without a net.


    Yes, this time in history is an argument between those who want to put the net back on the court,.and those who, not content with having removed the net, are now busily engaged in trying to erase the court lines. Some have even begun dismantling bleachers, as well.


    Race matters, Birth Gender matters, Class matters, Education matters, Attitude matters, Civility matters, Temperment matters, Individual soul matters, Attire matters, and, yes, Christ matters, etc etc…

    I’m sorry, My Fellow Americans, but,in thinking that any one of these things does not matter, you are not only way out of line, you are self-destructive, and, indeed, advocating self-destruction for everyone else.

  10. “Popular immiseration. Elite overproduction. Radicalization of the public. Elite infighting. Mounting fiscal instability. Geopolitical moves. Institutions losing their legitimacy. This is the recipe for revolutions and civil wars. The pot is now boiling in a way that no one alive today has ever seen.”

    We live in a contemporary police state. Like I said before, America is divided by zipcode. What could look like like a warzone worse than Afghanistan in one neighborhood , another neighborhood a couple miles away could have multi-million dollar mansions with well-manicured lawns. That’s what it looks like across all of America. Have you seen recent videos of what its like at the border? Check out this video of RFK Jr. at the border:

    People from all over the world are coming across our Southern border, even from East Asia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe. They put the illegals on busses and they ship them all over the country. Even the governor of Maine, the Whitest state in the country, has set up a bench mark for tens of thousands of migrants in the near future, which would become 5-8% of their population. Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the free market make sure these people end up in undesirable zip codes.

    Last time I checked a degree from Yale or Princeton was still highly sought after. Universities are not suffering from lack of enrollment or prestige despite their cooky side curriculums. The only institutions I see which are failing are in far-left cities with Soros-backed district attorneys with Communist mayors. The first responders are so overwhelmed in these cities that they don’t respond to some calls or have long delay times. Crime is a serious problem but it’s not at an all time high. The 1980’s had worse crime.

    In terms of popular immiseration, over 1/3 of American homes have a household income of 100,000 dollars or more a year. So a little over 1/3 of America is doing very well. The poor get everything they want from Uncle Sam, so they ain’t gonna rise up. Food stamps, section 8, welfare, free healthcare, child tax credits. The poor have it better off than the middle class who make slightly too much to qualify for these benefits. But then again, would you want to live in section 8 housing? I wouldn’t.

    There may be elite infighting on the right but not on the left. Two-thirds of Democrats say there are 2 genders which tells you that a majority of Democrats are moderates. The problem is that the moderates put their tales between their legs and let the far left have their way with everything. They only step in when things get too far like “defund the police”. They realized that was a bad idea when they realized crime could seep into their pristine neighborhoods.

  11. The next big civil war is already here: it’s the anti-White race war, and Whites are mostly not fighting back. Those that even defend themselves are railroaded in liberal courts (some are run by republicans)

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