NEW @SienaResearch/@nytimes Senate Poll: MICHIGAN ? El-Sayed 53% (+11) ? Rogers 42% . TEXAS ? Talarico 50% (+7) ? Paxton 43% . MAINE ? Jackson 51% (+6) ? Collins 45% . OHIO ? Brown 49% (+5) ? Husted 44% . KANSAS ? Hamilton 49% (+5) ? Marshall 44% . Alaska ? Peltola 48% (+2) ? Sullivan 46% . IOWA ? Turek 48% (+1) ? Hinson 47% LV, 10/23-11/1
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 2, 2026
Louisiana Early Voting Swings From ? R+84,140 in 2024 to ? D+15,981 in 2026
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 1, 2026
North Carolina Early Voting Swings From ? R+41,457 in 2024 to ? D+343,548 in 2026
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 1, 2026
Arizona Early Voting Swings From ? R+195,964 in 2024 to ? R+13,705 in 2026
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 1, 2026
Florida Early Voting Swings From ? R+844,829 in 2024 to ? R+155,345 in 2026
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 1, 2026
? Kentucky early vote data is in Saturday, the last day of no-excuse early voting, was the best day yet for Democrats: D+4,618 (D+4.2%) Statewide we’re D+4.1% heading into Election Day, 1.6 pts better than 2022 and 14 pts ahead of 2024 https://t.co/WYfglmoxaa https://t.co/XFieySGQKV
— Cameron Lopez (@Cam_Lopez8) November 1, 2026
Nevada firewall is up to ? D+43,000 On this same day, it was ? R+44,500 https://t.co/tSZoqfSQ12
— umichvoter (@umichvoter) November 1, 2026
43% R, 42% D: Kansas’s early/mail vote by party registration as of Oct. 30. At the same point in 2024, it was 52% R, 34% D. Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is in a toss-up race against Adam Hamilton (D) in the DDHQ Forecast. Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. #KSSen https://t.co/4fxdSFDoNJ
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 1, 2026
I want to stress that this is early voting only, not a projection of the final result. Texas Early Voting as of 10/30: ?Dems – 40.39% ??Swing – 22.59% ?GOP – 37.03% >?D+3.36% On this day in 2024: ?Dems – 35.75% ??Swing – 23.55% ?GOP – 40.69% >?R+4.94% On this day in 2022: ?Dems – 38.68% ??Swing – 15.96% ?GOP – 45.36% >?R+6.68% On this day in 2020: ?Dems – 38.44% ??Swing – 21.52% ?GOP – 40.04% >?R+1.59% On this day in 2018: ?Dems – 40.57% ??Swing – 15.29% ?GOP – 44.14% >?R+3.57% "But wait, Trump ultimately did far better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or even compared to Abbott in 2022!" Yes he did. His landslide victory was driven by swing voters who broke overwhelmingly for him. And fortunately for us, we have the benefit of hindsight as to how swing voters broke in the past. How Swing Voters Broke in 2024 ? GOP – 67.78% ? Dems – 32.22% >?R+35.56!!! How Swing Voters Broke in 2022 ? GOP – 56.08% ? Dems – 43.92% >?R+12.17 How Swing Voters Broke in 2020 ? GOP – 54.08% ? Dems – 45.92% >?R+8.16 How Swing Voters Broke in 2018 ? GOP – 47.31% ? Dems – 52.69% >?D+5.39 This is why Texas now looks competitive this cycle. Trump crushed Harris with swing voters in 2024, and those voters are now necessarily dedicated Republicans. They’re GOP-leaning (remember, Texas is a Red state!), but if they really sour on the GOP, they can end up producing mediocre margins for the Republican nominee, or even occasionally desert him as they did narrowly against Cruz in 2018. This means that if Paxton does as poorly with swing voters as Cruz did in 2018, or even as poorly as Trump did in 2020, he’s cooked and the polls will end up off in favor of the Democrats. Talarico will win by something like 1.5-4.5 points. But if Paxton matches Abbott’s performance with swing voters, it becomes a 50/50 toss-up where Talarico leads by 0.6%, but that could easily be overcome with election-day voters. And if Paxton somehow matched even Cruz’s coattails in 2024, when he won swing voters by 19 points off the back of Trump’s victory, he wins by just over 1% (likely more like 1.5-2%, as election day will help him out too). This is why the polls and betting markets give Talarico the lead right now. Paxton can win, but he must overcome a historical early-voting deficit that neither Trump in 2020 nor Cruz in 2018 faced, and win swing voters by a margin that at least approaches Greg Abbott’s performance in 2022.
— Christian Heiens ? (@ChristianHeiens) November 1, 2026
Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia as of 10/31: ?Dems – 67.68% ?GOP – 32.31% On this day in 2025: ?Dems – 65.05% ?GOP – 34.94% On this day in 2024: ?Dems – 58.66% ?GOP – 41.34%
— Christian Heiens ? (@ChristianHeiens) November 1, 2026
Here is my final 2026 Senate map.
I also expect Democrats to win over 240 House seats in a blow out.
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