Early Voting: No Sign of D+8 Electorate

BRA

The Daily Mail has a new article which reports the Romney campaign isn’t worried about the recent flurry of D+8 and D+9 polls because the 2012 election is already underway in early voting and there is no sign whatsoever of a pollyanna 2008-style or better Democrat turnout advantage in the swing states:

Florida:

“Although Obama appeared to make big strides on the first two days of eight-day period for in-person early voting, his pace slowed on Monday and Tuesday. Democrats netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday.

In the meantime, Republicans lead among absentee ballots by 70,000 votes. Democrats won the combined early vote by more than 360,000 in 2008 and currently lead by just 49,000.”

Colorado:

“More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Colorado, suggesting that the swing state, where Obama campaigns on Thursday, could be slipping from the President’s grasp.”

North Carolina:

“In North Carolina, which Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008, Romney has cut the Democratic early voting advantage by 100,000. Obama has not visited the state since September and Democrats have privately conceded that he is unlikely to win it.”

Nevada:

“In Nevada, Obama is also well behind his 2008 support in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, where he will also campaign tomorrow.”

Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida:

‘We’re wildly over-performing in Republican McCain counties and Obama’s significantly underperforming in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina compared to 2008,’ a senior Romney strategist told MailOnline.

‘You go county by county and we are very happy where we are. We have leads among election day voters and independents. The Obama campaign is saying it’s a 2008 model. But it’s not. Obama needs to win independents.’

On a conference call with reporters, Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, said: ‘In Florida right now about 2.2 million votes have been cast in early and absentee.

Right now as of today only 39,645 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. When you look at the independent break in each state, they are behind where they need to be going into election day next week.

‘We will win election day by double digits in Florida so they clearly are in a bad place going into day. They have three more days of early vote but they also have four so far where they have not made up any ground.’  . . .

The Romney campaign is increasingly confident it will win in Iowa, which Obama won in 2008 and where his caucuses victory over Hillary Clinton launched him on the way to the White House.

‘Iowa is a state where there’s a very clear line of demarcation,’ Beeson said. ‘Democrats tend to vote absentee and Republicans vote on election day. If the Democrats go into election day with less than a 130,000 lead on partisan registration and independents break, then we will win Iowa.’”

If the 2012 electorate is a D+8 electorate or D+9 electorate, as many of these recent polls are blithely assuming, then why isn’t there any sign of this in early voting? Why isn’t Obama matching or beating his turnout in early voting in 2008?

It’s the same D+8 electorate, right?

About Hunter Wallace 12366 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

50 Comments

  1. I don’t have time to answer every comment in real time. I might be in front of the screen one second, away the next. I answer when I can.

  2. “Because “anyone but the black guy” may not carry an election for a guy who is still nearly tied after 8 years of campaigning, and we all know it.”

    You’re right there — that does sound like a liberal talking point. But I wasn’t coming from that perspective. I was coming from the perspective that clearly many people are coming from – “I’m voting for the WHITE guy” (tell me you’ve never heard that) — and from the perspective that many will have to hold their nose to vote for Romney.

    No doubt, Romney is a talented, decent, successful person. He may even have one or two conservative views. Obama is a product of affirmative action.

    Many of us don’t think there is much difference between Obama and Romney. My position is merely that now is the time to PUNISH the Republican Party, and in four years we might have a real conservative. If they don’t, our country is done for sure, and in the meantime we’ve had a black guy and a growing illegitimacy problem for the TPTB.

    If Romney wins we have increased legitimacy and a non-consevative. Shit, the guy could have invented the lightbulb, the microcomputer, swam the English Channel, climbed El Cap and made 17 billion dollars and had 600 white kids. Great guy. Much respect. But if he isn’t going to represent my views politically, he’s not worth a piece of shit. Politically, this Government is a steaming piece of corrupt shit. In this respect, Obama DOES represent my political views. And everyone, everyday, gets to see my political views in the Oval Office. I like that. In this respect Obama is far less odious than Bush, and probably less odious than Romney.

    Because it’s time to GET REAL OR GO HOME.

  3. As I’ve said before, I put the curve like this:

    Left tail, skin-of-his-teeth 0bama win.
    Right tail, mini-landslide for Romney (landslides are increasingly off the table in American presidential elections)
    Middle of the Curve, comfortable Romney win.

    So I’m not ruling out the possibility of the zero squeaking out a narrow win.

    What’s pissing me off is how we keep throwing numbers at you guys and you ignore them. We respond comprehensively, and you respond with jack shit. You don’t meet us halfway by acknowledging anything, you just keep pasting in the same dross.

  4. First of all, don’t pay attention to the media, they are letting loose with both barrels from their propaganda cannons they loaded up months ago. They’re right on schedule. That is adding so much noise to what’s going on, it’s hard to see the forest through the trees right now.

  5. “I’m voting for the WHITE guy” (tell me you’ve never heard that) — and from the perspective that many will have to hold their nose to vote for Romney.

    1) Yeah, I’ve heard “I’m voting for the WHITE guy.” From me. And nobody else. Seriously, I haven’t heard this ONCE outside WN blogs. Hell, I barely hear it at the WN blogs!

    2) It takes a real spinmeister to turn “damn, Romney ain’t perfect, but he’s a MILE better than the pile of shit we’ve got in the White House now!” (which is what I am very much hearing from the electorate) to “anyone but the black guy.”

    Many of us don’t think there is much difference between Obama and Romney. My position is merely that now is the time to PUNISH the Republican Party, and in four years we might have a real conservative. If they don’t, our country is done for sure, and in the meantime we’ve had a black guy and a growing illegitimacy problem for the TPTB.

    I get that. I have no problem with that position. I don’t agree, but it’s a legitimate position.

  6. I acknowledge the numbers and admitted from the start I’m going on gut feeling.

    Somewhere along the way I think I got biased. I’m not thinking clearly about this shit anymore. All I know is I don’t want white people to have any more skin in this game as this comes down. I don’t want white people holding the leash pulling us into hell. Let it be blacks, liberals and women. Give them the hand off and let them run it into the end zone. It’s time to move on.

  7. I’m approaching this more as a horse race. I don’t have much skin in the game. My thing is seeing “one and done” written into the 0’s encyclopedia entry, rather than “‘Murricans love the negro for 8 years.” I’d also like to watch leftists cry after the election. And I’d like to taunt them for the next 4 years. And maybe the economy; Romney’s definitely the clear choice between the two, if the president is in fact in a position to help over the next 4 years.

  8. Aside from fags like Andrew Sullivan who support Obama because of DADT repeal and his May endorsement of gay marriage, I challenge anyone to identify a single constituency that is more enthusiastic about voting for Obama in 2012 than 2008.

    If no mass constituency is just as excited or more enthusiastic about voting for Obama in 2008 (BTW, this includes the liberal punditry), how do you get to a D+8 or a D+9 electorate?

  9. Given everything I have seen, I will say that White voters, Hispanic voters, Independent voters, Republican voters, women voters, younger voters, moderate voters, and elderly voters are less enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 than in 2008.

    How in the world do you get to a D+9 electorate? Look at the crowds at Obama rallies. Do those crowds look like D+8 or D+9 crowds on election day? Remember, Obama got to D+8 and D+9 only when he was the rockstar of “hope and change” and the height of Bush fatigue.

  10. Romney’s going to campaign in Pennsylvania before the election, but not Florida.

    I guess he’s given up Florida for lost and gone for a desperate bid in Pennsylvania instead, amirite?

  11. This poll shows Romney’s lead with independents eroding:

    Among likely voters who supported Obama in 2008, he’s retaining 83 percent this year – but 14 percent are moving to Romney. Romney, by contrast, is retaining more of John McCain’s supporters, 94 percent, and losing just 5 percent to Obama. That said, Obama’s making it back among new voters: Seven percent of likely voters say they did not vote in 2008, and they favor Obama widely, by 62-34 percent.
    Among other groups, preferences among independents – often swing voters – have squeezed to essentially a dead heat, 49-46 percent, Romney-Obama; that’s tightened from a record 58-38 percent in Romney’s favor last week. It hasn’t meaningfully changed total results because of slight changes in the numbers who identify themselves as independents, Democrats and Republicans – proportions that are not fixed, but that can move in step with other attitudes.

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/romney-leads-in-confidence-on-recovery-but-obama-escapes-most-economic-blame/

  12. If Obama has Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan wrapped up, why is he running ads there and sending Biden and Clinton there.

    BTW, if Obama has a 98% chance of winning the election, why is he campaigning in Ohio at all?

  13. I must admit I’m surprised that Romney is going to Pennsylvania. There are only so many days/hours left now until election day. I find it hard to believe he’d waste one going to Pennsylvania unless he thinks he can win it.

    The last time Pennsylvania went for a Republican was 1988. George HW Bush was a cushy moderate to liberal Northeastern Republican (who had moved to Texas) and this was the Pennsylvania of 1988 which was much whiter and more (socially) conservative than the Pennsylvania of 2012. There are a lot of Chris Matthews, Joe Biden types in Pennsylvania as well. I just don’t see it happening.

    Then again I suppose Romney is another cushy moderate to liberal Northeastern Republican. So who knows? It is a stupid move to make a play for Pennsylvania though.

    If Romney’s people determine that he can win Ohio then he ought to camp out there and campaign all over the state until election day. If his people doubt Ohio will go for him he needs to concentrate on Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.

  14. The whole thing feels weird, if you look at the polls, Romney is finished, done. But the Romney bunch is anything but panicky, unless they are trying to exude calm to hide internal turmoil. Obama on the other hand is all over the place and like in his third strategy for the week.

  15. That’s what I mean, that poll is wild. It was waaaaay obama, tied the next week, then waaaaaay obama again. Do electorates really swing that drastically, that quickly?

  16. Hunter Wallace says:
    ‘Who is more excited about Obama in 2012 than 2008? The fag vote. Who else?’

    Obama and the Democrats had almost all of the fag vote anyway. How many more could he possibly have gained?

  17. Remember, it is a D+8 to a D+9 year, but Democrats are set to lose at least five governorships, and they show no sign of taking the House either.

    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/11/01/republicans-to-take-over-governors-mansions/

    The New York Times reports that eight of the eleven governorships up for grabs this year are currently held by Democrats, leaving Republicans with an opportunity to improve on their 29–20 advantage. Republicans are leading in five of these races, with toss-ups in Washington and New Hampshire. If Republicans win these contests, the GOP would hold 33 Governorships to the Democrats’ 16, a difference of more than two to one.

    This is no small matter. Many of the defining political battles of the 21st century, including fights over union rights, pension payments and education reform, are being fought at the state level. Innovative state policies that succeed are emulated by other states, driving national politics as well. If Republicans capture more than two-thirds of governor’s mansions, they can push American politics rightward even without a Republican president.

  18. If it is a D+8 or D+9 year, why isn’t Obama significantly ahead in the national polls? Why aren’t Democrats winning the governor races? Why aren’t they retaking the House and sailing to victory in the Senate?

  19. So what? Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984, won 49 states and still had to contend with 253 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

  20. Reagan’s GOP of 1984 lost one net seat in the U.S. Senate whilst Reagan was winning 49 states in a E.C. landslide.

  21. @ Land Shark 9:49.

    I like your perspective. I’d like to see the black or a liberal democrat in charge for at least three years before “The Great Collapse.”
    As many have said here a Romney win will slow down the white awakening process that is under way.
    I voted for Virgil Goode today here in Florida. I’m leaving tomorrow. It seems safest to be out of the state should some people feel “dissed” after the election.
    I also voted for a young Iraq war vet who is anti-war and anti-off shoring.
    His name is Chris Borgia. He’s running for the U.S. senate.
    The only thing is his name is a litle scary.

  22. Arguing about these “polls” is a waste of bandwidth. All signs point to a landslide victory for Romney.

    Lew, Wayne, John, Gottfried, and Apuleius are all convinced of, and hoping for, an Obama victory. What these people believe it would get them, is beyond me.

  23. Chris, George W. Bush soured me on the GOP and “Conservatism.” What I don’t get is how he didn’t sour everyone. Bush fought a bullshit AIPAC/Exxon War against Iraq and pushed hard for Amnesty for Illegal Aliens while doing nothing to protect our borders or enforce our laws.

    That’s as bad as it gets.

  24. Fair enough, I’ll grant you that.

    Romney had an opportunity to shed the Neocons and chart a new more realist approach to foreign affairs when he won the GOP nomination. It was awfully disappointing that he chose to associate his campaign with Neocon Israel Firsters like John Bolton and Dan Senor, he didn’t have to but he did anyway. Also Romney trying to fire up a new Cold War with Russia is complete BS.

    Perhaps Romney is a smidge to the right of Obama on Immigration, but if he is it is so slight as to almost not matter. Obama wants Amnesty and won’t deport. Romney is against Amnesty but won’t deport. Romney won’t change Obama’s policy of halting deportations of young illegals. Obama is for the Dream Act, Romney is for a scaled down Dream Act for young people that join the military (neocons must love that one) Only Romney is for MORE LEGAL IMMIGRATION, Obama has not said he would increase the immigration quotas.

  25. No Chris, I hope the pro-white candidate Virgil Goode wins. The fact that he won’t means one of the two anti-white candidates will win. Ultimately, it really makes no difference to me who runs the yankee BRA empire.

    The future of whites depends upon the demise of this corrupt and increasingly tyrannical leviathan state. I only wish we could know clearly which political charlatan would run it into the ground faster. He would get my vote.

    Deo Vindice

  26. I’ve already made the case justifying my vote for Obama over Romney. Obama is better for my immediate self-interests, better for White folks in general and better for nationalists long-term.

  27. Great question Chris, no one disputes that Romney will win a huge landslide of white voters. My guess is the spending, the rather anemic recovery, and the weak jobs situation. Don’t forget the GOP starts with a decent sized base of Christians and business owners both large and small and these people are largely white.

  28. Because they’re information voters and easily manipulated by GOP and mainstream conservative propaganda. They think they take their country back by voting Republican.

  29. Because they’re low information voters and easily manipulated by GOP and mainstream conservative propaganda. They think they take their country back by voting Republican.

  30. I voted against Bush twice … went so far as to vote for Gore and Kerry. No regrets there.

    I voted for Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the last two Republican primaries. I’m not voting for Romney in the general election because Virgil Goode is the better candidate.

    I will never vote for a Democrat ever again.

  31. I would normally look at the polls, and simply declare it over for Mitt. The thing that is throwing me off the most, beyond the odd poll sampling, is the behavior of the respective campaigns. Obama is all over the place, retooling strategies weekly, whereas Mitt keeps plodding along. Is the “kitchen sink” approach Obama’s adopted at calculated approach? Or is it desperation? And is Mitt’s stability due to confidence, or him being out of touch?

  32. The Republican camp is out there constantly talking about how Obama is going to be trounced, and about how the polls are skewed. But the thing is, if the trouncing is going to be so bad, wouldn’t we all know that by now? They are trying too hard to convince us. This gives me pause.

    Also, I’m not seeing a big Romney sticker or sign presence. I don’t feel the passion. We know most Obama supporters, even marginal ones, are passionate. Where is the passion for Romney? Overall it’s still an “Obama is going to change the world” vs. “grab your lunchbox and go vote” election. Who wins that?

    If Romney wins, this is the calmest calm before the storm I’ve ever seen.

  33. If Obama has Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan wrapped up, why is he running ads there and sending Biden and Clinton there.

    BTW, if Obama has a 98% chance of winning the election, why is he campaigning in Ohio at all?

    Right. If Romney started running ads in Massholechusetts or CA, would the 0 go scrambling to run ads there, too?

    Obama hasn’t been to Florida since September. I can see how someone who thought he was ahead in Florida could think he was ahead in Ohio. I.e., lack of critical thinking.

  34. Romney will be lucky to win Ohio. You can forget all about Pennsylvania.

    Romney’s going to get very “lucky” in a lot of places on Tuesday. Especially Ohio.

    If Obama has Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan wrapped up, why is he running ads there and sending Biden and Clinton there.

    BTW, if Obama has a 98% chance of winning the election, why is he campaigning in Ohio at all?

    Right. If Romney started running ads in Massholechusetts or CA, would the 0 go scrambling to run ads there, too?

    Obama hasn’t been to Florida since September. I can see how someone who thought he was ahead in Florida could think he was ahead in Ohio. I.e., lack of critical thinking.

    If Romney’s people determine that he can win Ohio then he ought to camp out there and campaign all over the state until election day. If his people doubt Ohio will go for him he needs to concentrate on Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.

    Ohio’s got ad and electino fatigue by now. You can only saturation-bomb a population so long before you start to see diminishing returns. These other states, beyond 0bama’s imaginary “firewall,” are all fresh eyes who haven’t seen any ads or heard any speeches.

    Romney’s a winner, the guy made the country’s top equity firm (so I hear, have not confirmed) from scratch in his 30s. He knows how to make and follow a strategy.

    The whole thing feels weird, if you look at the polls, Romney is finished, done. But the Romney bunch is anything but panicky, unless they are trying to exude calm to hide internal turmoil. Obama on the other hand is all over the place and like in his third strategy for the week.

    It’s also telling where they’re going. Dems claim they have the edge in Florida but the zero hasn’t been there since, what? Before the debates? Since September?

    That’s what I mean, that poll is wild. It was waaaaay obama, tied the next week, then waaaaaay obama again. Do electorates really swing that drastically, that quickly?

    No. Lots of crap polls out there.

    I would normally look at the polls, and simply declare it over for Mitt. The thing that is throwing me off the most, beyond the odd poll sampling, is the behavior of the respective campaigns. Obama is all over the place, retooling strategies weekly, whereas Mitt keeps plodding along. Is the “kitchen sink” approach Obama’s adopted at calculated approach? Or is it desperation? And is Mitt’s stability due to confidence, or him being out of touch?

    This “I just read the polls” thing is absurd. The media bandwagoners aren’t reading the polls, they’re reading the headlines. Probably not even that, just glued to the couch watching the TV.

    If they were really “just reading the polls,” they’d be scratching their heads over:

    1) Zero has to SIGNIFICANTLY increase his turnout from 2008. Hey, makes sense, seeing how popular he is, amirite?
    2) Their beloved polls saying Romney’s winning indies by a wide margin.
    3) Romney can’t outperform McCain in 2008.

    No, fellas, you ARE NOT just going by the polls. You’re going by headlines, and can’t be bothered to read what the polls are actually saying.

  35. Hmm, now I see the zero has been visiting Florida, so disregard until I figure out what’s going on with that. Last I heard, he wasn’t visiting FL, now I see he has, several times. My bandwidth is too low to check on every fact, so I take a lot of yes or no cut and dried facts on faith if I hear it several times.

  36. “My thing is seeing “one and done” written into the 0?s encyclopedia entry, rather than “‘Murricans love the negro for 8 years.” I’d also like to watch leftists cry after the election. And I’d like to taunt them for the next 4 years”

    This!

    Svig’s my favorite commenter across the entire web. He nails it every time.

    Even if a Romney win means WWIII on Nov. 7, before I go to my grave, for one glorious, shining moment, I want to rejoice in the spectacle of mooooshelle leaving the White house in humiliated ignomy.

    If, in the unlikely circumstance the world fails to come to end, again, I too want the chance to throw right back at the libtards their obnoxious HA HA WE WON!!!!

    And plus, I said 4 years ago that if BRA were a stock, its chart topped Jan 2009 and has since been making a series of lower highs and lower lows since. I said this precisely because of the smug crowing from the euphoric libtards. Man, the crowing marks a top in the stock market — and it marks a top in politics.

    I am now so wildly bullish on the reassertuib of their sense of pride and Manifest Destiny of Whites of European Christian Heritage, I can’t even pick a target. Solar system spanning civilization, maybe?

Comments are closed.