Early Voting: No Sign of D+8 Electorate

BRA

The Daily Mail has a new article which reports the Romney campaign isn’t worried about the recent flurry of D+8 and D+9 polls because the 2012 election is already underway in early voting and there is no sign whatsoever of a pollyanna 2008-style or better Democrat turnout advantage in the swing states:

Florida:

“Although Obama appeared to make big strides on the first two days of eight-day period for in-person early voting, his pace slowed on Monday and Tuesday. Democrats netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday.

In the meantime, Republicans lead among absentee ballots by 70,000 votes. Democrats won the combined early vote by more than 360,000 in 2008 and currently lead by just 49,000.”

Colorado:

“More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Colorado, suggesting that the swing state, where Obama campaigns on Thursday, could be slipping from the President’s grasp.”

North Carolina:

“In North Carolina, which Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008, Romney has cut the Democratic early voting advantage by 100,000. Obama has not visited the state since September and Democrats have privately conceded that he is unlikely to win it.”

Nevada:

“In Nevada, Obama is also well behind his 2008 support in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, where he will also campaign tomorrow.”

Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida:

‘We’re wildly over-performing in Republican McCain counties and Obama’s significantly underperforming in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina compared to 2008,’ a senior Romney strategist told MailOnline.

‘You go county by county and we are very happy where we are. We have leads among election day voters and independents. The Obama campaign is saying it’s a 2008 model. But it’s not. Obama needs to win independents.’

On a conference call with reporters, Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, said: ‘In Florida right now about 2.2 million votes have been cast in early and absentee.

Right now as of today only 39,645 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. When you look at the independent break in each state, they are behind where they need to be going into election day next week.

‘We will win election day by double digits in Florida so they clearly are in a bad place going into day. They have three more days of early vote but they also have four so far where they have not made up any ground.’  . . .

The Romney campaign is increasingly confident it will win in Iowa, which Obama won in 2008 and where his caucuses victory over Hillary Clinton launched him on the way to the White House.

‘Iowa is a state where there’s a very clear line of demarcation,’ Beeson said. ‘Democrats tend to vote absentee and Republicans vote on election day. If the Democrats go into election day with less than a 130,000 lead on partisan registration and independents break, then we will win Iowa.’”

If the 2012 electorate is a D+8 electorate or D+9 electorate, as many of these recent polls are blithely assuming, then why isn’t there any sign of this in early voting? Why isn’t Obama matching or beating his turnout in early voting in 2008?

It’s the same D+8 electorate, right?

About Hunter Wallace 12367 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

50 Comments

  1. What I hear everybody talking about is this whole “Early Voting” thing, in itself. Everybody says it just feels like fraud. Why do we have to have it? How long does it go on? Didn’t it just start as a small thing, for those very few people who COULD NOT vote during the normal time.

    Why does there have to be a “special” deal for everybody in this WELFARE statist deal? Why can’t the people just do things on the APPOINTED DAY.

    But noooo— it seems like an outgrowth of the endless “special case” basis of their lives.

    Why can’t they just go on the freaking day.

    It is just using their endless need to feel “sooo special” in order to confuse things enough to commit rampant FRAUD—- is all the public seems to think of it, (when you hear them talking around the water coolers).

  2. I predicted six months ago Barack Obama would win every state he won in 2008 and a traditional red state. This, clearly, won’t happen, but it’s evident now Obama is headed for a comfortable win in the EC and the popular vote. 

    There are positive job numbers out today. There will be more out tomorrow. Matt is right about QE and the gas prices. Chris Christie has yet to break off the fellatio. Romney doesn’t even Florida locked down, much less Ohio. If Romney had a lock on Florida, he wouldn’t be campaigning there…

    I don’t doubt the pollsters doing as much as possible to help Obama without destroying their credibility. Still, Obama only needs to win one vote in the key states. 

    Even if, realistically, in a given swing state D+9 is really D+3, and D+6 is really D+1, D+anything still gives Obama a huge advantage this close to the election. If Romney loses Michigan and Minnesota by 1 point instead of 5 or 6, it won’t matter that he beat expectations. It’s still a loss The undecideds don’t break for the challenger. That’s a myth.

    In short, Romney has little going for him in the macro trends or polling numbers adjusted for PC bias. I am definitely putting cash on Obama today.

  3. Better confused White folks get a hard lesson now they can’t “take back” “their” country by voting Republican.

  4. Obama like most of the Left’s theatrical politics is nothing but fashion, here today not spoken of tomorrow. He is like any other fashion statement, gotta have it now but wouldn’t be caught dead with it in time.

    My bold prediction that this is close to Scott Walker recall re-election size win, which I agree with Dick Morris’ prediction.

    Besides Obama doesn’t want this anyway, the next 4 years are going to be an effin disaster and as a lame duck I think he would go out with less approval than Bush, especially if he went “angry negro” his last couple of years.

  5. So, if Obama is up slightly or outright losing in early voting, and he loses election day turnout and Independents break for Romney, he has “a 98% percent chance of victory,” right? How?

    In order to have Obama winning or slightly ahead, the polls are assuming a 2008-style or greater D+8 to D+9 electorate. Once again, Obama lost election day turnout to McCain in 2008 in Ohio.

    There isn’t a D+9 electorate. If there was a D+9 electorate, it would be obvious in early voting.

  6. The polls that have Obama ahead are D+8 and D+9 polls which make ridiculous assumptions of Democrats outperforming their 2008 turnout while Republicans fall short of McCain’s 2008 performance.

    Even if you look at the 2008 exit polls, Obama won a lot of states like Ohio due only to his advantage with Independent voters. You can read these same polls and see that without the D+8 electorate, without the assistance of Independents, and without Republicans breaking for Obama and having a lackluster turnout that Romney would win.

  7. In 2008, Obama had a 19 point edge on McCain in early voting. Also in 2008, McCain won election day turnout in Ohio.

    The 2012 election is already underway. Remember, Democrats are far more likely to early vote than show up on election day, and Republicans are more likely to vote on election day than early vote:

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/31/in-deadlocked-race-neither-side-has-ground-game-advantage/

    In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

    In early voting, Pew finds a swing from Obama+19 in early voting in 2008 to Romney+7 in 2012. Where is the D+9 electorate? The 2012 electorate isn’t going to be anywhere close to D+9.

  8. I’m calling an Obama win in Illinois. My mother inlaw life long GOP and 88 years old went for Obama who 4 years ago she hated, but let me clarify this, her moments of lucidity are much further apart than before, and finally they would not renew her license.

    Obama finally let some money out for signs in Illinois, but if they don’t have a free fried chicken and kickback turnout in Cook county it will be closer than a presidential election has been since 88. The local whackjob Tammy Duckworth probably is not out of the woods yet either. Outside money is spending for Walsh her opponent, which must mean its closer than the libs say it is. All together I view this as a turnout problem for the Ds since they carved out a nice D district for their baby.

  9. But why are the bookies favoring Obama?

    I don’t trust anyone — pollsters, voters being polled, or vote counters.

  10. http://www.postonpolitics.com/2012/11/florida-dems-ask-scott-to-extend-early-voting/

    Florida Democrats are asking Gov. Rick Scott to extend early voting an extra day, blaming the GOP-backed changes to the election law that shrank the number of early voting days for long lines at the polls.

    Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith said Scott should take the lead from his predecessor Charlie Crist who extended early voting four years ago in response to long lines around the state and election machine problems in certain counties.

    Lawmakers last year cut back on the number of early voting days from 14 to eight and did away with the final Sunday before Election Day. Democrats have historically used early voting in greater numbers than Republicans in Florida.

  11. How many people are actually FOR Romney?

    Most people not voting for Obama are voting against him, not for someone else.

    I predict a huge third party vote.

  12. FWIW, I have yet to see anything that logically contradicts the underlying bias implied by Hunter. There are lots of other estimates like intrade or the RCP average that are cited, but those don’t disprove what he says. They’re just parallel pieces of data.

    I suspect someone out there on the left like Nate Silver knows the mechanics of how these polls work and the assumptions that are being made and that they are choosing not to address these assumptions either because the models are proprietary or there is no response.

    My guess is that Hunter is correct but is he correct enough for Romney to win? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out. It does make me consider placing a bet on Intrade though. Even if Romney looses, the preliminary results should be enough to bump the chances up closer to 50-50 as the results roll in on election night. Could be an easy couple bucks.

  13. Don’t listen to polls which are assuming a D+8 to D+9 electorate. Just use common sense. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Obama is even more popular now than he was in the 2008 wave election or that Republican turnout will be down from McCain’s performance in 2008.

    I will return to my football analogy. Saying that 2012 will have a D+8 electorate is exactly like saying that the 2012 Auburn football team is just as good or better than the 2010 Auburn football team. If someone tried to make that argument to a Bama fan heading into the Iron Bowl, they would laugh in your face.

    The Bama fan would respond with something like … oh btw, Cam Newton and Nick Fairley went to the NFL, and you lost your offensive coordinator, and that Michael Dyer guy flunked out, and your quarterback sucks, and you lost a lot of seniors from your championship team, and oh btw, you are 1-7 this season and Alabama is the defending national champion and is undefeated.

    The 2012 election is already underway. There is already sufficient evidence to discredit the idea that there is a D+9 electorate. Much of Democratic turnout comes before election day and we have swung from Obama+19 to Romney+7 in early voting. That data point alone proves this is not a D+9 year.

  14. If we are really in a D+8 to D+9 year, then the Democrats would be poised to take over Congress. Is there any sign that Democrats have an overwhelming advantage in taking the House this year?

  15. “Just use common sense. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Obama is even more popular now than he was in the 2008 wave election or that Republican turnout will be down from McCain’s performance in 2008.”

    All Obama has to do is be more popular than Romney. That’s not hard to do.

  16. The flaw is that D+x is not an assumption. It’s based on data gathered during the poll (the likely voter screen). I think this is how Silver and his libtards would argue it.

  17. Nevada’s the only state I looked at closely and then stopped watching because I thought the zero was going to take it. Now it looks a lot closer, shaping up to be a real down to the wire finish. But I still thin the zero takes it.

    But Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado are going to Romney. And obviously North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida as well. That’s the presidency, right there.

  18. By “huge” I’m talking above average, and enough to throw the election in some key races and states. Nothing earth shattering.

  19. Well, let’s see.

    Karl Rove thinks a D+8 electorate is “absurd.” I also say it is absurd because it assumes an electorate that is just as Democrat, if not more, than 2008. I will also argue that early voting in 2012 is almost over in states like Florida and there is no sign of a D+8 electorate in partisan turnout.

    If there really was a D+8 electorate, Democrats would be sweeping the House and Senate this year and making gains in governor races and the state legislatures. You can see a wave election like 2008 or 2010 coming months in advance. There is no sign that 2012 is going to be a Democratic landslide year.

    Nate Silver can average D+8 and D+9 polls that assume Obama is more popular than 2008 and Republican turnout will be down from 2012. The actual physical early voting going on clearly shows a dramatic swing away from Obama’s 2008 performance in early voting.

  20. If it were a Romney sure thing we’d all know it right now. Yet even with all your facts Hunter, even the blatant Romney supporters here and elsewhere are unsure? Why is that?

    Because “anyone but the black guy” may not carry an election for a guy who is still nearly tied after 8 years of campaigning, and we all know it.

  21. ‘I predict a huge third party vote.’

    Haha, you should’ve just stuck to “0bama’s going to win” like Lew does. Making out-of-left-field absurd predictions just make you look, well, absurd.

    There are positive job numbers out today.

    What numbers? My early reports show no move in the job numbers.

    There will be more out tomorrow.

    Says who? 0bama campaign? Spun numbers aren’t going to convince out of work voters of jack shit.

    Chris Christie has yet to break off the fellatio.

    So? Chirs Christie’s a RINO at best. Bloomberg told the zero to go fuck himself.

    Romney doesn’t even Florida locked down, much less Ohio. If Romney had a lock on Florida, he wouldn’t be campaigning there…

    Yes, Romney has Florida locked down, which is why he isn’t campaigning here, you jackass. He had one visit recently to help a Republican there with his campaign, meaning, the guy wants to be seen with Romney (how many Dems are asking to be seen with the zero?). That’s why he has no stops scheduled there between now and the election.

    You’re a jackass.

    Still, Obama only needs to win one vote in the key states.

    Same for Romney. Yep, you’re a jackass.

    Even if, realistically, in a given swing state D+9 is really D+3, and D+6 is really D+1, D+anything still gives Obama a huge advantage this close to the election.

    No it doesn’t, because Romney is winning independents by large margins, jackass.

    If Romney loses Michigan and Minnesota by 1 point instead of 5 or 6, it won’t matter that he beat expectations. It’s still a loss The undecideds don’t break for the challenger. That’s a myth.

    Romney doesn’t need Michigan or Minnesota, at all.

    I am definitely putting cash on Obama today.

    The only good thing in your entire post.

    NRO finally stealing Hunter’s ideas.

    Ah, the cult of personality. WTF am I over here? Chopped liver? 😀

    But why are the bookies favoring Obama?

    I don’t trust anyone — pollsters, voters being polled, or vote counters.

    Who knows? I want to know a LOOOOOOOOOOOT more info than “the bookies are favoring 0bama” before I give a FLYING FUCK what they’re favoring. Most importantly, how much money they’re carrying. Without that number, the fact that they’re favoring someone means jack shit because it could easily be low enough for a Soros to buy as advertising.

    The…very…fact…that…the…bookies…are…being…used…as…democrat…advertising…PROVES…they…are…indeed…aadvertising.

  22. More on the divergence.

    I have my money down on Obama.

    Dr. Wang argues state polls are more accurate than national polls for this reason:

    Evidently, national polls have systematic problems…national polls do about 2.5x worse at predicting the popular vote outcome than expected if the wisdom of crowds of pollsters were perfect.

    How is the track record of state polls?

    In terms of predicting both state-by-state and overall electoral outcomes, state polls do extremely well. In 2008, I correctly identified the leader 49 out of 51 races. I called two races (Indiana and Missouri) tossups, and those races had margins within 1%. In addition, the 2004 EV median precisely matched the final outcome.

    In other words, state polls get it 98-100% correct.

    More:

    http://election.princeton.edu/romentum-rove-1nov2012.php

  23. Romney’s going to win Ohio. Bank on it.

    Same with Colorado.

    I haven’t looked at Iowa as closely, but I’m confident he’ll win Iowa, too.

    As for Florida and North Carolina and Virginia, they’re all easily in the bag for Romney.

    That’s the election, with Iowa the only state I’m not really sure about.

  24. Oh, on a serious note, no, Free Republic is not stealing Hunter’s ideas. If anything, Hunter’s stealing battlegroundwatch.com’s ideas (as is FR), which I brought here.

  25. Wang is the guy who believes Obama has a 98% chance of winning … on the basis of state polls (Quinnipiac, PPP, National Journal, etc.) which assume Obama will have a bigger wave election in 2012 than 2008 and that Republican turnout will be down from 2008.

  26. But you don’t have to steal anyone’s ideas to know:

    1) The turnout for 0 will be down.
    2) The poll averages show Romney WAY ahead among indies. By 7 nationally last time I checked, and by as much as 10-20 points in the state polls.
    3) The turnout for R will be a substantial improvement over McCain in 2008.

    This means these D+X polls are out to lunch, which means you’ve got to do your HOMEWORK if you want to predict this election. Can’t just sit on the couch and read poll averages.

  27. I’m certain the state polls which assume a D+8 to D+9 electorate are wrong. I can see it in the early voting returns and in the disparity from the 2008 exit polls. It is also extremely counterintuitive given the House races and all the polling that had been done for four years on Obama’s core demographics.

  28. Yeah, I’m really gonna be crying into my whiskey if Romney loses, lol. You’re talking to a WN, remember? I’m about as far from the Republican bandwagon as someone can get and still root for Romney.

  29. Svigor,

    Getting nervous I take it?

    No, angry. Stupid has always pissed me off.

    What do I have to be nervous about? As if I really give a shit who wins? I don’t. I’m doing well now, and will continue to do well regardless of who wins.

    I’m just not drunk on “worse is better” Kool-Aid.

  30. I guess you missed the number keys? You’ll have to use them, if you want to tell us how much you bet on the nigger you want to win so much. Well, I guess you could just spell the numbers out…

    Lemme guess, still working with your calculator? Can’t count to twenty without it?

  31. Romney IS WORSE.

    Michael Chertoff, Dov Zacheim, etc. Need I go on?

    What’s going to feel worse when TSA highway checkpoints and domestic drones are rolled out in a big way? When sites like this are censored? When Romney does it or when Obama does it? What is going to have more legitimacy among white people? Who is going to meet more resistance among our would-be friends in Congress?

    Romney is worse. Shit, even Denise admits that.

  32. How do you get to D+8?

    Elderly voters support Romney. Independent voters support Romney. Obama is getting around 37 percent of the White vote. Young voters are nowhere near as pro-Obama or enthusiastic about voting.

    Hispanics are significantly less interested in this election. The gender gap in 2012 is near a 20 year low. Black voters are not as enthusiastic about voting this year.

    Who is more excited about Obama in 2012 than 2008? The fag vote. Who else? Certainly not Republicans who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than 2008.

    What are the constituencies that justify the assumption of a D+9 or D+8 electorate?

  33. Because “anyone but the black guy” may not carry an election for a guy who is still nearly tied after 8 years of campaigning, and we all know it.

    Now he’s dragging dem talking points into the discussion, lol.

    You’ve got to be hell and gone x2 from normal American thinking to repeat that nonsense. I know, because I’M hell and gone from normal American thinking, and that’s still hell and gone further.

    Romney is a giant compared to the 0. The 0 is a nobody; an empty suit sitting in an empty chair mouthing empty promises. He’s always been a nobody, and any “racialist” saying otherwise is a liar or a fool.

    Romney is a winner. Pretty much the complete opposite of the zero. One glance at their life stories is enough to prove that to anyone with an ounce of sense. I don’t care for his politics but he’s clearly a giant compared to the empty mulatto suit.

  34. I’m not voting for Romney or Obama.

    I fully expect to oppose whoever is president next year. I don’t expect anything to change here. I’m just saying the assumption of a D+8 electorate is absurd given everything we know.

  35. Hey, at least I know you aren’t ready to lie about how much you’re risking on the zero, so there’s that. If you were you would’ve responded by now.

  36. Not a lot. Enough to entertain myself which is what I thought we were all doing here anyway as no one here thinks the outcome of this election either way will change anything important.

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